Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 4

Post on X

Deportivo La Coruna

Away

Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

AI call Difficult Villarreal win or draw

62%

23%

15%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna prediction: Sportiko gives Villarreal a 62% chance of winning, Deportivo La Coruna 15% and the draw 23%. Last updated 5 Sep 2026, 20:57.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 74%

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Match Report

Villarreal dominated possession and territory throughout this La Liga clash but were ultimately undone by Deportivo La Coruña's clinical finishing. Nicolas Pépé gave the hosts an early lead in the 19th minute, only for Luismi Cruz to level matters before half-time, sending the teams in level at 1–1.

The second half proved costly for Villarreal despite their continued control of the ball. An Adama Traoré own goal on 76 minutes handed Deportivo the lead, and Zakaria Eddahchouri extended the advantage just three minutes later. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang added a third for the visitors in the 88th minute to seal a remarkable away victory, before a late Gerard Moreno consolation reduced the deficit to 3–2.

The statistics told one story — Villarreal enjoyed 63% possession, registered 17 total shots and earned seven corners to Deportivo's one — but the scoreline told another entirely. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Villarreal win most likely at 62%, a call that ultimately proved wide of the mark. Four yellow cards in the closing stages reflected the frustration of a dramatic finale.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Nicolas Pépé assist: Ayoze Pérez

19' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 43'

Luismi Cruz assist: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

HT 1–1

⇄ 54'

Riki Rodríguez ⇄ Yeremay Hernández

Ayoze Pérez ⇄ Georges Mikautadze

62' ⇄

Pape Gueye ⇄ Santi Comesaña

62' ⇄

Alberto Moleiro ⇄ Tajon Buchanan

62' ⇄

⇄ 66'

Mario Soriano ⇄ Marc Casadó

⇄ 66'

Bil Nsongo ⇄ Adama Traoré

⇄ 66'

José María Giménez ⇄ Miguel Loureiro

Adama Traoré Own Goal

76' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 77'

Luismi Cruz ⇄ Zakaria Eddahchouri

Gerard Moreno ⇄ Tani Oluwaseyi

77' ⇄

⚽ 2–2 79'

Zakaria Eddahchouri assist: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

Santi Comesaña Yellow Card

81' ▮

Logan Costa ⇄ Ilias Akhomach

83' ⇄

Tajon Buchanan Yellow Card

87' ▮

⚽ 2–3 88'

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

▮ 90+1'

Lorenzo Amatucci Yellow Card

▮ 90+3'

Yeremay Hernández Yellow Card

FT 2–3

Villarreal

Match Stats

Deportivo La Coruna

63% Ball Possession 37%

17 Total Shots 8

5 Shots on Goal 3

6 Shots off Goal 3

6 Blocked Shots 2

9 Shots insidebox 6

8 Shots outsidebox 2

7 Corner Kicks 1

2 Offsides 1

14 Fouls 14

2 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

0 Goalkeeper Saves 4

640 Total passes 382

576 Passes accurate 324

14 Free Kicks 13

Villarreal

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Nicolas Pépé M	8.2	90'	1	–	5	62 (55%)	–
3 Alexander Freeman D	6.8	90'	–	–	2	81 (78%)	3
24 Nathan-Dylan Saliba M	6.7	90'	–	–	1	73 (67%)	5
22 Ayoze Pérez F	6.7	62'	–	1	1	20 (16%)	1
18 Pape Gueye M	6.6	62'	–	–	1	59 (52%)	–
12 Renato Veiga D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	77 (73%)	–
9 Georges Mikautadze F	6.5	28'	–	–	2	15 (13%)	–
2 Logan Costa D	6.4	83'	–	–	1	52 (48%)	–
11 Ilias Akhomach F	6.4	7'	–	–	1	6 (5%)	1
7 Gerard Moreno F	6.3	77'	–	–	1	37 (34%)	–
21 Tani Oluwaseyi F	6.2	13'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
23 Sergi Cardona D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	60 (53%)	2
17 Tajon Buchanan F	6.1	28'	–	–	–	19 (16%)	–
14 Santi Comesaña M	6.0	28'	–	–	–	26 (23%)	–
10 Alberto Moleiro M	5.8	62'	–	–	2	31 (25%)	1
1 Luiz Júnior G	5.7	90'	–	–	–	19 (15%)	–

Deportivo La Coruna

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang F	9.0	90'	1	2	3	17 (14%)	2
9 Zakaria Eddahchouri F	8.2	13'	1	–	1	4 (4%)	–
19 Luismi Cruz M	7.4	77'	1	–	1	21 (16%)	3
20 José María Giménez D	6.9	66'	–	–	–	34 (32%)	–
16 Lorenzo Amatucci M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	45 (43%)	4
13 Leo Román G	6.8	90'	–	–	–	40 (28%)	–
4 Lucas Noubi D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	53 (43%)	1
24 Adama Traoré F	6.6	24'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	–
21 Mario Soriano M	6.6	66'	–	–	–	44 (42%)	–
10 Yeremay Hernández F	6.5	36'	–	–	1	12 (9%)	1
23 Ximo Navarro D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	27 (22%)	5
12 Giacomo Quagliata D	6.4	90'	–	–	1	32 (26%)	–
32 Bil Nsongo F	6.4	66'	–	–	1	16 (12%)	3
15 Miguel Loureiro D	6.2	24'	–	–	–	9 (9%)	–
6 Marc Casadó M	6.0	24'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	–
14 Riki Rodríguez M	6.0	54'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	–

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Confidence Medium (62%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Villarreal win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.1%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

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Villarreal

WWLLL

Deportivo La Coruna

DLDWW

Last 3 meetings Villarreal · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

Villarreal will face Deportivo La Coruna in a La Liga matchup on September 6, 2026. Villarreal has historically demonstrated strong offensive capabilities, finishing in the top half of the league in goals scored over recent seasons. Conversely, Deportivo La Coruna has struggled with consistency, often finding themselves in the lower tier of the league standings. Key players for Villarreal, particularly in the attacking third, could exploit Deportivo’s defensive vulnerabilities. This match presents Villarreal with an opportunity to solidify their position in the standings against a team that has faced challenges in recent campaigns.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

62%

10%

Draw

23%

45%

Away

15%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Deportivo La Coruna goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	4	2	1
1	9	11	5	1
2	11	10	5	1
3	8	7	3	1
4	4	4	2
5	2	1	1

↑ Villarreal goals · most likely 1–1 (11.1%)

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Players in form

Villarreal

P. Gueye 3 gls

Alberto Moleiro 2 gls

Deportivo La Coruna

P. Aubameyang 5 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

62%

Draw

23%

Away Win

15%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

19%

1.5

81%

44%

2.5

56%

67%

3.5

33%

84%

4.5

16%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

62%

Draw

23%

Away Win

15%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

80% Home (No Draw) 20% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

38% Home Win by 2+ 5% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

62% Home Scores More 23% Equal Goals 15% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

19%

1.5

81%

44%

2.5

56%

67%

3.5

33%

84%

4.5

16%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

13%

24%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	3.5%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%
1	9.4%	11.1%	4.5%	1.4%	0.3%
2	11.0%	10.1%	4.7%	1.4%	0.3%
3	7.5%	6.9%	3.2%	1.0%	0.2%
4	3.9%	3.5%	1.6%	0.5%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Villarreal	Draw	Deportivo La Coruna
Villarreal	45.2%	4.1%	1.1%
Draw	16.0%	14.0%	5.9%
Deportivo La Coruna	2.0%	3.3%	8.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

40%

1.5

60%

68%

2.5

32%

86%

3.5

14%

Home Exact Goals

13%

27%

28%

19%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

93%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

40%

37%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna

1 Villarreal Wins

2 Draws

0 Deportivo La Coruna Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
12 May 2018	Deportivo La Coruna	2 - 4	Villarreal
07 Jan 2018	Villarreal	1 - 1	Deportivo La Coruna
14 May 2017	Villarreal	0 - 0	Deportivo La Coruna

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Villarreal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Levante	W	3 - 1
17 Sep	A Malaga	W	1 - 3
14 Sep	H Real Betis	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Borussia Dortmund	L	3 - 2
05 Sep	H Deportivo La Coruna	L	2 - 3

Deportivo La Coruna — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Real Betis	D	1 - 1
16 Sep	H Sevilla	L	0 - 1
13 Sep	A Getafe	D	1 - 1
05 Sep	A Villarreal	W	2 - 3
30 Aug	H Valencia	W	3 - 1

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Villarreal

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Iñigo Pérez

1 Júnior

23 Cardona

12 Veiga

2 Costa

3 Freeman

10 Moleiro

18 Gueye

24 Saliba

19 Pépé

22 Pérez

7 Moreno

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Luíz Júnior	G
3	A. Freeman	D
2	Logan Costa	D
12	Renato Veiga	D
23	Sergi Cardona	D
19	N. Pépé	M
24	N. Saliba	M
18	P. Gueye	M
10	Alberto Moleiro	M
7	Gerard Moreno	F
22	Ayoze Pérez	F

Substitutes

11	Ilias Akhomach	F
17	T. Buchanan	F
14	Santi Comesaña	M
5	A. Diatta	M
13	Rubén Gómez	G
25	P. Gulácsi	G
16	C. Macia	M
9	G. Mikautadze	F
15	S. Mouriño	D
6	Pau Navarro	D
21	T. Oluwaseyi	F

Deportivo La Coruna

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Antonio Hidalgo

13 Román

12 Quagliata

20 Giménez

4 Noubi

23 Navarro

14 Rodríguez

16 Amatucci

21 Soriano

19 Cruz

7 Aubameyang

32 Nsongo

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	Leo Román	G
23	Ximo Navarro	D
4	L. Noubi	D
20	J. Giménez	D
12	G. Quagliata	D
19	Luismi Cruz	M
21	Mario Soriano	M
16	L. Amatucci	M
14	Riki Rodríguez	M
32	B. Nsongo	F
7	P. Aubameyang	F

Substitutes

18	Jonathan Asp Jensen	M
6	Marc Casadó	M
9	Z. Eddahchouri	F
22	B. Ede	D
25	Álvaro Fernández	G
34	T. Gijselhart	M
10	Peke	F
15	Miguel Loureiro	D
11	David Mella	F
24	Adama Traoré	F
17	Angeliño	D
8	Diego Villares	M