Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid prediction: Sportiko gives Athletic Club a 31% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid 40% and the draw 29%. Last updated 5 Sep 2026, 16:18.
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Match Report
Athletic Club produced a dominant second-half display to dismantle Atletico Madrid 3–0 at San Mamés, handing the visitors a comprehensive La Liga defeat. The first half was goalless and relatively even, though Athletic controlled possession and created the better opportunities, with Atletico's Kang-in Lee picking up a yellow card late in the period.
The game turned decisively in the opening minutes after the break. Nico Williams broke the deadlock in the 46th minute, and Robert Navarro doubled the advantage just two minutes later, stunning Atletico before they had time to regroup. Atletico responded with a flurry of substitutions around the hour mark, sending on Lookman, Hjulmand, and Giuliano Simeone, but the changes failed to shift the momentum. Athletic finished the job in stoppage time when Oihan Sancet added a third to seal the scoreline.
Athletic's 62% possession and eight corner kicks underlined their territorial superiority throughout. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Atletico win as the most likely outcome at 40%, a call that proved well wide of the mark on the night.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Athletic Club
Match Stats
Athletic Club
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Robert Navarro M | 8.2 | 66' | 1 | – | 2 | 21 (17%) | 4 |
| 10 Nico Williams M | 8.1 | 76' | 1 | – | 2 | 18 (12%) | 1 |
| 8 Oihan Sancet M | 8.0 | 90' | 1 | – | 3 | 23 (16%) | – |
| 1 Unai Simón G | 7.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 47 (34%) | – |
| 4 Aitor Paredes D | 7.6 | 44' | – | – | – | 22 (21%) | 2 |
| 14 Aymeric Laporte D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 58 (54%) | – |
| 17 Yuri Berchiche D | 7.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 35 (31%) | – |
| 31 Johaneko Louis Jean D | 7.3 | 24' | – | – | – | 8 (5%) | 1 |
| 16 Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta M | 7.2 | 60' | – | – | – | 33 (29%) | – |
| 9 Iñaki Williams F | 7.1 | 66' | – | 1 | 3 | 11 (8%) | 1 |
| 18 Mikel Jauregizar M | 7.1 | 30' | – | – | 1 | 14 (14%) | 3 |
| 5 Yeray Álvarez D | 7.0 | 46' | – | – | – | 33 (28%) | – |
| 24 Beñat Gerenabarrena M | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 22 (19%) | 3 |
| 12 Jesús Areso D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 34 (20%) | 4 |
| 7 Álex Berenguer F | 6.6 | 24' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | 1 |
| 11 Gorka Guruzeta F | 6.5 | 14' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | 1 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Marc Pubill D | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 83 (78%) | 3 |
| 8 Pablo Barrios M | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 71 (67%) | 2 |
| 14 Marcos Llorente D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 68 (63%) | – |
| 19 Julián Alvarez F | 6.9 | 31' | – | – | 1 | 16 (16%) | – |
| 22 Alejandro Grimaldo D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 54 (47%) | 3 |
| 6 Koke M | 6.7 | 31' | – | – | – | 42 (41%) | – |
| 10 Alex Baena F | 6.6 | 76' | – | – | 2 | 29 (24%) | – |
| 17 Dávid Hancko D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 73 (66%) | – |
| 21 Cristian Romero D | 6.5 | 31' | – | – | 1 | 36 (33%) | – |
| 7 Kang-in Lee F | 6.4 | 59' | – | – | 2 | 23 (18%) | – |
| 5 Johnny Cardoso M | 6.3 | 14' | – | – | – | 25 (23%) | – |
| 16 Arnau Ortiz F | 6.3 | 32' | – | – | 1 | 5 (5%) | – |
| 23 Morten Hjulmand M | 6.2 | 59' | – | – | – | 35 (28%) | – |
| 20 Giuliano Simeone M | 6.1 | 59' | – | – | 2 | 34 (28%) | – |
| 13 Jan Oblak G | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 19 (15%) | – |
| 11 Ademola Lookman M | 5.7 | 58' | – | – | 1 | 14 (13%) | – |
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Expected goals (xG)
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Álex Baena
4 gls
J. David
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Atletico Madrid | 3 - 2 | Athletic Club |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Athletic Club | 1 - 0 | Atletico Madrid |
| 01 Mar 2025 | Atletico Madrid | 1 - 0 | Athletic Club |
Athletic Club — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Alaves | D | 0 - 0 |
| 12 Sep | H Elche | D | 1 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | H Atletico Madrid | W | 3 - 0 |
| 30 Aug | A Celta Vigo | W | 0 - 2 |
| 27 Aug | A Barcelona | L | 2 - 0 |
Atletico Madrid — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Real Madrid | W | 2 - 1 |
| 16 Sep | H Osasuna | W | 4 - 0 |
| 13 Sep | A Real Sociedad | W | 0 - 3 |
| 09 Sep | A Liverpool | L | 2 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | A Athletic Club | L | 3 - 0 |
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 |
Atletico Madrid
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 |
Real Betis
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 |
Real Madrid
|
7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 |
Sevilla
|
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 |
Alaves
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 |
Deportivo La Coruna
|
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 |
Real Sociedad
|
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 |
Villarreal
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 |
Athletic Club
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |
Getafe
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 |
Osasuna
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |
Celta Vigo
|
7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 15 |
Espanyol
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 |
Racing Santander
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 |
Levante
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 |
Elche
|
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 |
Valencia
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 |
Malaga
|
7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
Atletico Madrid
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: D. Simeone
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | J. Oblak | G |
| 14 | Marcos Llorente | D |
| 18 | Marc Pubill | D |
| 17 | D. Hancko | D |
| 22 | Álex Grimaldo | D |
| 20 | G. Simeone | M |
| 8 | Pablo Barrios | M |
| 23 | M. Hjulmand | M |
| 11 | A. Lookman | M |
| 7 | Lee Kang-In | F |
| 10 | Álex Baena | F |
Substitutes
| 24 | Robin Le Normand | D |
| 21 | C. Romero | D |
| 27 | J. Dominguez | D |
| 6 | Koke | M |
| 5 | J. Cardoso | M |
| 16 | Arnau Ortiz | F |
| 4 | Rodrigo Mendoza | M |
| 46 | J. Castillo | M |
| 15 | J. David | F |
| 19 | J. Álvarez | F |
| 1 | J. Musso | G |
| 30 | Dani MartÃnez | D |
Athletic Club
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: E. Terzić
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unai Simón | G |
| 12 | Jesús Areso | D |
| 5 | Yeray | D |
| 14 | Aymeric Laporte | D |
| 17 | Yuri | D |
| 16 | Ruíz de Galarreta | M |
| 24 | Beñat Gerenabarrena | M |
| 23 | Robert Navarro | M |
| 8 | Oihan Sancet | M |
| 10 | Nico Williams | M |
| 9 | I. Williams | F |
Substitutes
| 31 | J. Louis-Jean | D |
| 13 | Álex Padilla | G |
| 15 | Hugo Rincón | D |
| 30 | Iker Monreal | D |
| 4 | Aitor Paredes | D |
| 6 | Beñat Prados | M |
| 20 | Alejandro Rego | M |
| 18 | Mikel Jauregizar | M |
| 44 | S. Sanchez | M |
| 7 | Álex Berenguer | F |
| 11 | Gorka Guruzeta | F |
| 21 | Maroan Sannadi | F |