Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 3

Post on X

Rayo Vallecano

Away

Camp Nou, Barcelona

AI call Barcelona to win

81%

12%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano prediction: Sportiko gives Barcelona a 81% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano 6% and the draw 12%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 21:32.

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5 74%
1st Half Over 0.5 74%
Home 2H Over 0.5 72%

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Match Report

Barcelona made light work of Rayo Vallecano at the Camp Nou, running out comfortable 5–2 winners in a match that was largely one-sided despite an early scare. Rayo drew first blood through Sergio Camello in the 12th minute, but Barcelona responded swiftly with goals from Raphinha and Lamine Yamal in the 19th and 21st minutes to take control before half-time. A Jules Koundé effort was ruled out for offside by VAR just before the break, keeping the scoreline at 2–1.

The second half saw Barcelona assert their dominance further. Florian Lejeune's own goal on 51 minutes extended the lead, and Camello pulled one back for Rayo eight minutes later to briefly offer hope. That proved short-lived, however, as Raphinha struck again on 71 minutes before Lamine Yamal rounded off the scoring in stoppage time with his second of the night. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Barcelona win at 81%, a call that proved well-founded.

Barcelona dominated possession at 70% and registered 26 total shots to Rayo's nine, with an expected goals figure of 2.83 compared to 1.10 for the visitors — numbers that accurately reflected the gulf between the two sides.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 12'

Sergio Camello assist: Álvaro García

Raphinha assist: Xavi Espart

19' ⚽ 1–1

Lamine Yamal assist: Marc Bernal

21' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 32'

Jozhua Vertrouwd ⇄ Adrià Pedrosa

Jules Koundé Goal Disallowed - offside

45+1' 🖵

HT 2–1

Florian Lejeune Own Goal

51' ⚽ 3–1

⇄ 57'

Gnangoro Bouaré ⇄ Pedro Díaz

⇄ 58'

Jorge de Frutos ⇄ Fran Pérez

⚽ 3–2 59'

Sergio Camello assist: Unai López

Dani Olmo ⇄ Fermín López

64' ⇄

Marc Bernal ⇄ Rodri

64' ⇄

Raphinha assist: Anthony Gordon

71' ⚽ 4–2

⇄ 75'

Sergio Camello ⇄ Alemão

⇄ 75'

Unai López ⇄ Randy Nteka

Pedri ⇄ João Cancelo

78' ⇄

Anthony Gordon ⇄ Karim Adeyemi

78' ⇄

Raphinha ⇄ Hamza Abdelkarim

86' ⇄

▮ 90'

Adrià Pedrosa Yellow Card

Lamine Yamal assist: Karim Adeyemi

90' ⚽ 5–2

FT 5–2

Barcelona

Match Stats

Rayo Vallecano

70% Ball Possession 30%

2.83 Expected Goals (xG) 1.10

26 Total Shots 9

9 Shots on Goal 4

10 Shots off Goal 3

7 Blocked Shots 2

17 Shots insidebox 5

9 Shots outsidebox 4

9 Corner Kicks 5

3 Offsides 4

4 Fouls 10

0 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 5

642 Total passes 264

580 Passes accurate 193

90% Passes % 73%

-2.31 goals_prevented -2.31

Barcelona

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Lamine Yamal M	9.9	93'	2	–	4	40 (30%)	1
11 Raphinha F	9.3	86'	2	–	3	27 (25%)	1
5 Pau Cubarsí D	8.0	93'	–	–	1	111 (101%)	2
7 Fermín López M	7.2	29'	–	–	–	14 (12%)	1
22 Marc Bernal M	7.2	64'	–	1	2	46 (41%)	4
20 Dani Olmo M	7.0	64'	–	–	1	35 (29%)	1
16 Rodri M	6.9	29'	–	–	–	30 (29%)	2
8 Pedri M	6.9	77'	–	–	1	71 (68%)	1
17 Anthony Gordon M	6.9	77'	–	1	3	23 (18%)	–
12 Xavi Espart D	6.9	93'	–	1	1	64 (59%)	1
15 Andreas Christensen D	6.9	93'	–	–	1	70 (68%)	1
1 Joan García G	6.5	93'	–	–	–	30 (25%)	–
23 Jules Koundé D	6.5	93'	–	–	–	72 (66%)	–
2 João Cancelo D	6.3	16'	–	–	1	7 (7%)	–
14 Karim Adeyemi F	6.3	16'	–	1	1	2 (2%)	–
29 Hamza Abdelkarim F	—	7'	–	–	–	–	–

Rayo Vallecano

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Sergio Camello F	8.3	75'	2	–	2	19 (8%)	1
23 Óscar Valentín M	6.9	93'	–	–	–	22 (16%)	3
8 Unai López M	6.6	75'	–	1	–	24 (21%)	3
21 Fran Pérez F	6.6	36'	–	–	1	7 (5%)	–
17 Adrià Pedrosa D	6.5	61'	–	–	–	19 (16%)	2
36 Gnangoro Bouaré M	6.5	57'	–	–	1	16 (13%)	1
9 Alemão F	6.3	18'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
4 Pedro Díaz M	6.3	36'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	1
19 Jorge de Frutos M	6.2	57'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	2
18 Álvaro García M	6.2	93'	–	1	–	23 (14%)	2
11 Randy Nteka M	6.2	18'	–	–	1	2 (2%)	–
33 Jozhua Vertrouwd D	6.2	32'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	2
6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss D	5.9	93'	–	–	–	28 (25%)	1
24 Florian Lejeune D	5.9	93'	–	–	2	37 (32%)	4
20 Iván Balliu D	5.9	93'	–	–	–	18 (14%)	2
1 Dani Cárdenas G	5.9	93'	–	–	–	30 (11%)	–

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Confidence High (81%)

At a glance

Our lean

Barcelona to win

Most likely score

2:0 · 11%

Both teams to score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

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Barcelona

WWWWW

Rayo Vallecano

DWLWL

Last 3 meetings Barcelona · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In this La Liga clash, Barcelona will host Rayo Vallecano. Barcelona has shown a strong offensive output, averaging 2.5 goals per game last season, while Rayo Vallecano struggled defensively, conceding 1.6 goals per match. Barcelona's possession-based strategy will likely dominate the match, as they average over 65% possession. Rayo's counter-attacking play could pose a threat, but they will need to improve their defensive organization to contain Barcelona's potent attack. Overall, Barcelona is favored to secure a victory, leveraging their attacking prowess against Rayo's vulnerabilities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Rayo Vallecano goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	5	3	2	1
1	8	10	4	1
2	11	10	5	1
3	8	8	4	1
4	5	4	2	1
5	2	2	1

↑ Barcelona goals · most likely 2–0 (11.0%)

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Players in form

Barcelona

Raphinha 12 gls

Lamine Yamal 7 gls

Fermín 4 gls

K. Adeyemi 2 gls

Rayo Vallecano

Sergio Camello 7 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

81%

Draw

12%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

16%

1.5

84%

39%

2.5

61%

62%

3.5

38%

80%

4.5

20%

92%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

81%

Draw

12%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

84% Home (No Draw) 16% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

44% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

67% Home Scores More 21% Equal Goals 13% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

16%

1.5

84%

39%

2.5

61%

62%

3.5

38%

80%

4.5

20%

92%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Exact Goals

11%

23%

18%

12%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.3%	2.6%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%
1	8.4%	9.8%	3.9%	1.2%	0.3%
2	11.0%	10.0%	4.6%	1.4%	0.3%
3	8.5%	7.7%	3.5%	1.1%	0.2%
4	4.9%	4.5%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

26%

32%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

44%

1.5

56%

72%

2.5

28%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

17%

26%

28%

17%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Barcelona	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona	47.2%	4.0%	1.4%
Draw	19.0%	12.2%	5.8%
Rayo Vallecano	2.3%	2.6%	5.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

34%

1.5

66%

61%

2.5

39%

82%

3.5

18%

Home Exact Goals

10%

24%

27%

21%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

94%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

40%

37%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano

2 Barcelona Wins

1 Draws

0 Rayo Vallecano Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
22 Mar 2026	Barcelona	1 - 0	Rayo Vallecano
31 Aug 2025	Rayo Vallecano	1 - 1	Barcelona
17 Feb 2025	Barcelona	1 - 0	Rayo Vallecano

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Barcelona — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Sevilla	W	1 - 3
16 Sep	H Racing Santander	W	7 - 2
13 Sep	A Levante	W	2 - 4
09 Sep	H Feyenoord	W	5 - 1
06 Sep	A Valencia	W	0 - 5

Rayo Vallecano — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Osasuna	D	1 - 1
15 Sep	H Espanyol	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Real Madrid	L	4 - 1
05 Sep	H Racing Santander	W	3 - 2
31 Aug	A Barcelona	L	5 - 2

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Barcelona

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: H. Flick

1 García

12 Espart

15 Christensen

5 Cubarsí

23 Koundé

8 Pedri

22 Bernal

17 Gordon

20 Olmo

10 Yamal

11 Raphinha

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Joan García	G
23	Jules Koundé	D
5	Pau Cubarsí	D
15	Andreas Christensen	D
12	Xavi Espart	D
22	Marc Bernal	M
8	Pedri	M
10	Lamine Yamal	M
20	Dani Olmo	M
17	Anthony Gordon	M
11	Raphinha	F

Substitutes

13	Wojciech Szczęsny	G
31	Eder Aller	G
3	Alejandro Balde	D
2	João Cancelo	D
24	Eric García	D
18	Gerard Martín	D
28	Brian Fariñas	M
16	Rodri	M
7	Fermín López	M
29	Hamza Abdelkarim	F
14	Karim Adeyemi	F

Rayo Vallecano

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Benat San Jose

1 Cárdenas

33 Vertrouwd

6 Ciss

24 Lejeune

20 Balliu

36 Bouaré

23 Valentín

18 García

8 López

19 Frutos

10 Camello

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Dani Cárdenas	G
20	Iván Balliu	D
24	Florian Lejeune	D
6	Pathé Ismaël Ciss	D
33	Jozhua Vertrouwd	D
23	Óscar Valentín	M
36	Gnangoro Bouaré	M
19	Jorge de Frutos	M
8	Unai López	M
18	Álvaro García	M
10	Sergio Camello	F

Substitutes

17	Adrià Pedrosa	D
30	Adrián Molina	G
22	Pelayo Fernández	D
26	Marco de las Sias	D
2	Andrei Rațiu	D
4	Pedro Díaz	M
14	Giorgi Tsitaishvili	F
21	Fran Pérez	F
31	Marco Román	M
11	Randy Nteka	M
9	Alemão	F