Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction
Alaves vs Villarreal prediction: Sportiko gives Alaves a 33% chance of winning, Villarreal 39% and the draw 28%. Last updated 28 Aug 2026, 21:23.
Premium picks
Premium- Home to Score 75%
- Away to Score 74%
- 1st Half Home or Draw 75%
- Under 3.5 Goals 71%
Match Report
Alaves claimed all three points at home against Villarreal in La Liga's third round of fixtures, winning 1–0 thanks to a first-half goal that proved decisive. Lucas Boyé broke the deadlock in the 31st minute with a composed finish, giving the hosts an advantage they would not relinquish. Our pre-match AI model had favoured a Villarreal victory at 39%, a call that ultimately did not materialise.
Despite controlling just 25% of possession, Alaves defended resolutely and showed enough quality in attack to threaten on the counter, registering 18 total shots and six on target to Villarreal's nine and two respectively. The visitors struggled to convert their territorial pressure into clear-cut chances, finishing with an expected goals figure of 0.81 against Alaves's 1.28.
The second half saw both sides make multiple substitutions in search of a shift in momentum, with Villarreal introducing Gerard Moreno and Georges Mikautadze among others. However, the changes failed to unlock a disciplined Alaves backline, and a flurry of late yellow cards — five in total across both teams — underlined the mounting frustration as the hosts held firm for a deserved victory.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Alaves
Match Stats
Alaves
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Antonio Sivera G | 7.7 | 94' | – | – | – | 24 (14%) | – |
| 7 Ángel Pérez D | 7.5 | 71' | – | 1 | 2 | 7 (5%) | 1 |
| 17 Jonny Otto D | 7.5 | 94' | – | – | 1 | 22 (20%) | 3 |
| 3 Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim D | 7.3 | 40' | – | – | – | 7 (4%) | 3 |
| 8 Antonio Blanco M | 7.3 | 94' | – | – | 1 | 28 (22%) | 5 |
| 15 Lucas Boyé F | 7.3 | 82' | 1 | – | 3 | 12 (10%) | 3 |
| 16 Ville Koski D | 7.2 | 94' | – | – | – | 7 (5%) | 1 |
| 14 Nahuel Tenaglia D | 7.0 | 94' | – | – | – | 12 (9%) | 2 |
| 4 Denis Suarez M | 6.9 | 23' | – | – | – | 7 (5%) | – |
| 20 Aitor Mañas F | 6.7 | 12' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 9 Mariano Diaz F | 6.7 | 40' | – | – | – | 7 (5%) | – |
| 18 Mikel Rodriguez M | 6.6 | 54' | – | – | – | 10 (8%) | 1 |
| 11 Toni Martínez F | 6.3 | 54' | – | – | – | 4 (1%) | – |
| 19 Pablo Ibáñez M | 6.3 | 94' | – | – | 2 | 21 (17%) | 1 |
| 21 Abderrahman Rebbach D | 6.3 | 71' | – | – | – | 22 (16%) | 2 |
| 23 Carlos Benavídez M | 6.3 | 23' | – | – | – | 5 (4%) | – |
Villarreal
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Juan Foyth D | 7.7 | 94' | – | – | 3 | 87 (83%) | 5 |
| 12 Renato Veiga D | 7.0 | 94' | – | – | 1 | 90 (84%) | 1 |
| 3 Alexander Freeman D | 6.9 | 32' | – | – | – | 32 (29%) | 2 |
| 1 Luiz Júnior G | 6.9 | 94' | – | – | – | 17 (16%) | – |
| 15 Santiago Mouriño D | 6.9 | 62' | – | – | – | 44 (38%) | 3 |
| 22 Ayoze Pérez F | 6.9 | 32' | – | – | 2 | 11 (10%) | – |
| 19 Nicolas Pépé M | 6.7 | 94' | – | – | 2 | 45 (39%) | 1 |
| 18 Pape Gueye M | 6.7 | 94' | – | – | – | 81 (66%) | 1 |
| 20 Carlos Romero D | 6.6 | 94' | – | – | – | 56 (51%) | 1 |
| 17 Tajon Buchanan M | 6.3 | 63' | – | – | 1 | 23 (21%) | 1 |
| 21 Tani Oluwaseyi F | 6.3 | 12' | – | – | – | 1 | – |
| 14 Santi Comesaña M | 6.3 | 62' | – | – | – | 51 (43%) | 2 |
| 10 Alberto Moleiro M | 6.3 | 31' | – | – | – | 13 (12%) | 1 |
| 7 Gerard Moreno F | 6.3 | 70' | – | – | 3 | 33 (28%) | 1 |
| 9 Georges Mikautadze F | 6.2 | 82' | – | – | – | 22 (18%) | – |
| 11 Ilias Akhomach F | 6.2 | 24' | – | – | – | 19 (18%) | – |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Most likely scores
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
L. Boyé
4 gls
M. Díaz
3 gls
P. Gueye
3 gls
Alberto Moleiro
2 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Alaves vs Villarreal
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar 2026 | Alaves | 1 - 1 | Villarreal |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Villarreal | 3 - 1 | Alaves |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Alaves | 1 - 0 | Villarreal |
Alaves — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Athletic Club | D | 0 - 0 |
| 15 Sep | H Valencia | L | 0 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | A Racing Santander | L | 2 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | H Osasuna | W | 5 - 2 |
| 28 Aug | H Villarreal | W | 1 - 0 |
Villarreal — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Levante | W | 3 - 1 |
| 17 Sep | A Malaga | W | 1 - 3 |
| 14 Sep | H Real Betis | L | 1 - 2 |
| 08 Sep | A Borussia Dortmund | L | 3 - 2 |
| 05 Sep | H Deportivo La Coruna | L | 2 - 3 |
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 |
Atletico Madrid
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 |
Real Betis
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 |
Real Madrid
|
7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 |
Sevilla
|
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 |
Alaves
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 |
Deportivo La Coruna
|
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 |
Real Sociedad
|
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 |
Villarreal
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 |
Athletic Club
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |
Getafe
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 |
Osasuna
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |
Celta Vigo
|
7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 15 |
Espanyol
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 |
Racing Santander
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 |
Levante
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 |
Elche
|
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 |
Valencia
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 |
Malaga
|
7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
Villarreal
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: Inigo Perez
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luiz Júnior | G |
| 15 | Santiago Mouriño | D |
| 8 | Juan Foyth | D |
| 12 | Renato Veiga | D |
| 20 | Carlos Romero | D |
| 19 | Nicolas Pépé | M |
| 14 | Santi Comesaña | M |
| 18 | Pape Gueye | M |
| 17 | Tajon Buchanan | M |
| 7 | Gerard Moreno | F |
| 9 | Georges Mikautadze | F |
Substitutes
| 25 | Péter Gulácsi | G |
| 6 | Pau Navarro | D |
| 3 | Alexander Freeman | D |
| 23 | Sergi Cardona | D |
| 2 | Logan Costa | D |
| 10 | Alberto Moleiro | M |
| 26 | Carlos Maciá | M |
| 5 | Alassane Diatta | M |
| 11 | Ilias Akhomach | F |
| 24 | Nathan-Dylan Saliba | M |
| 22 | Ayoze Pérez | F |
| 21 | Tani Oluwaseyi | F |
Alaves
Formation: 5-3-2
Coach: Quique Sanchez Flores
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonio Sivera | G |
| 7 | Ángel Pérez | D |
| 14 | Nahuel Tenaglia | D |
| 16 | Ville Koski | D |
| 17 | Jonny Otto | D |
| 21 | Abderrahman Rebbach | D |
| 19 | Pablo Ibáñez | M |
| 8 | Antonio Blanco | M |
| 18 | Mikel Rodriguez | M |
| 11 | Toni Martínez | F |
| 15 | Lucas Boyé | F |
Substitutes
| 13 | Adrián Rodríguez | G |
| 3 | Youssef Enriquez | D |
| 27 | Xanet Olaiz | D |
| 2 | Nicolás Valentini | D |
| 12 | Hugo Novoa | F |
| 23 | Carlos Benavídez | M |
| 4 | Denis Suárez | M |
| 10 | Carles Aleñá | M |
| 22 | Miguel Rodríguez | F |
| 6 | Ander Guevara | M |
| 20 | Aitor Mañas | F |
| 9 | Mariano Díaz | F |