Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 2

23 Aug 2026, 15:00

Post on X

Villarreal

Away

AI call Atletico Madrid to win

76%

18%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal prediction: Sportiko gives Atletico Madrid a 76% chance of winning, Villarreal 6% and the draw 18%. Last updated 28 Jul 2026, 16:43.

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73% 74% 74% 72%

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 16.5%

Both teams to score

37%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

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Atletico Madrid

LWLWW

Villarreal

WWLLD

Last 3 meetings Atletico Madrid · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Atletico Madrid will face Villarreal in a La Liga clash on August 23, 2026. Atletico possesses a strong defensive record, having conceded only 30 goals in the previous season, while Villarreal's attack struggled, finishing with a goal tally significantly lower than the league average. Key players like Antoine Griezmann and Álvaro Morata could exploit Villarreal's defensive vulnerabilities, while Villarreal will rely on their midfield creativity to break down Atletico's organized defense. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they look to secure early points in the league.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

76%

45%

Draw

18%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Villarreal goals →

	0	1	2
0	7	2	1
1	14	8	2
2	16	8	2
3	12	6	2
4	7	4	1
5	3	2

↑ Atletico Madrid goals · most likely 2–0 (16.5%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

76%

Draw

18%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS No 37% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

72%

3.5

28%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

76%

Draw

18%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

93% Home (No Draw) 7% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

52% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

76% Home Scores More 18% Equal Goals 6% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

72%

3.5

28%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS No 37% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

16%

26%

23%

16%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4%	2.3%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
1	13.6%	8.4%	1.9%	0.3%	0.0%
2	16.5%	8.4%	2.1%	0.4%	0.1%
3	12.4%	6.3%	1.6%	0.3%	0.0%
4	7.0%	3.6%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

26%

33%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

33%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Atletico Madrid	Draw	Villarreal
Atletico Madrid	55.6%	2.2%	0.3%
Draw	19.9%	12.0%	2.5%
Villarreal	1.8%	2.2%	3.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

35%

1.5

65%

62%

2.5

38%

83%

3.5

17%

Home Exact Goals

11%

24%

27%

21%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

69%

1.5

31%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

60%

31%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

77%

0.5

23%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

78%

0.5

22%

97%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal

1 Atletico Madrid Wins

1 Draws

1 Villarreal Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
24 May 2026	Villarreal	5 - 1	Atletico Madrid
13 Sep 2025	Atletico Madrid	2 - 0	Villarreal
25 Jan 2025	Atletico Madrid	1 - 1	Villarreal

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Atletico Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Manchester United	L	2 - 1
29 Jul	H Getafe	W	4 - 1
24 May	A Villarreal	L	5 - 1
17 May	H Girona	W	1 - 0
12 May	A Osasuna	W	1 - 2

Villarreal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
25 Jul	A PSV Eindhoven	W	1 - 3
24 May	H Atletico Madrid	W	5 - 1
17 May	A Rayo Vallecano	L	2 - 0
13 May	H Sevilla	L	2 - 3
10 May	A Mallorca	D	1 - 1

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.