Espanyol vs Real Madrid Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 2

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Real Madrid

Away

AI call Difficult Real Madrid win or draw

14%

23%

63%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Espanyol vs Real Madrid prediction: Sportiko gives Espanyol a 14% chance of winning, Real Madrid 63% and the draw 23%. Last updated 23 Aug 2026, 03:00.

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1st Half Over 0.5 72%

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Match Report

Real Madrid edged a competitive La Liga encounter at Espanyol, coming from behind to claim a 2–1 victory. Jude Bellingham broke the deadlock early, finishing in the ninth minute to give the visitors a bright start, but Espanyol levelled through Álex Calatrava on the half-hour mark, sending the sides into the break level at 1–1. Both Vinícius Júnior and Calatrava picked up yellow cards moments after the equaliser in a fractious spell.

The second half was largely controlled by Real Madrid, who dominated possession at 65% and limited Espanyol to just two shots on target across the entire match. A dramatic late winner arrived in stoppage time, with Carlos Espí netting in the 90th minute to seal all three points for the visitors, though the identity of the scorer raises some ambiguity over whether it was an own goal or a late intervention.

Espanyol's expected goals figure of 0.48 — against Real Madrid's 0.26 — reflected a match where the hosts struggled to convert their limited opportunities into genuine threats. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Real Madrid win as the most likely outcome at 63%, a call that proved correct.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 9'

Jude Bellingham assist: Arda Güler

Álex Calatrava assist: Javier Hernández

30' ⚽ 1–1

▮ 32'

Vinícius Júnior Yellow Card

Álex Calatrava Yellow Card

32' ▮

HT 1–1

Clemens Riedel Yellow Card

59' ▮

⇄ 64'

Álvaro Carreras ⇄ Marc Cucurella

⇄ 64'

Arda Güler ⇄ Yan Diomande

Clemens Riedel ⇄ Vanja Drkušić

66' ⇄

Álex Calatrava ⇄ Rafael Bauzà

66' ⇄

Urko González ⇄ Pol Lozano

75' ⇄

Javier Hernández ⇄ Pere Milla

75' ⇄

⇄ 80'

D. Dumfries ⇄ Trent Alexander-Arnold

⇄ 80'

Bernardo Silva ⇄ Eduardo Camavinga

⇄ 80'

Jude Bellingham ⇄ Carlos Espí

Edu Expósito Yellow Card

84' ▮

Edu Expósito ⇄ Jofre Carreras

88' ⇄

⚽ 1–2 90'

Carlos Espí

Pere Milla Yellow Card

90+1' ▮

Pol Lozano Yellow Card

90+4' ▮

FT 1–2

Espanyol

Match Stats

Real Madrid

35% Ball Possession 65%

0.48 Expected Goals (xG) 0.26

5 Total Shots 6

2 Shots on Goal 5

2 Shots off Goal 1

1 Blocked Shots 0

2 Shots insidebox 5

3 Shots outsidebox 1

Corner Kicks

1 Offsides 0

7 Fouls 1

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 1

129 Total passes 242

112 Passes accurate 229

87% Passes % 95%

-0.27 goals_prevented -0.27

Espanyol

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
22 Álex Calatrava M	7.3	38'	1	–	1	13 (9%)	2
28 Javier Hernández F	7.0	38'	–	1	–	9 (9%)	–
8 Edu Expósito M	6.7	38'	–	–	1	20 (15%)	2
9 Roberto Fernández F	6.6	38'	–	–	1	4 (4%)	1
24 Tyrhys Dolan M	6.5	38'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	–
14 Unai Núñez D	6.5	38'	–	–	–	16 (15%)	–
21 Roger Hinojo D	6.3	38'	–	–	–	15 (13%)	1
13 Marko Dmitrović G	6.2	38'	–	–	–	5 (2%)	–
23 Omar El Hilali D	6.2	38'	–	–	–	12 (12%)	1
5 Clemens Riedel D	6.2	38'	–	–	1	16 (15%)	1
4 Urko González M	6.2	38'	–	–	–	11 (11%)	–

Real Madrid

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
5 Jude Bellingham M	7.7	38'	1	–	1	18 (18%)	2
15 Arda Güler M	7.2	38'	–	1	–	29 (26%)	1
8 Federico Valverde M	6.9	38'	–	–	–	28 (28%)	2
10 Kylian Mbappé F	6.7	38'	–	–	3	13 (11%)	–
7 Vinícius Júnior M	6.6	38'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	1
1 Thibaut Courtois G	6.5	38'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	–
20 Bernardo Silva M	6.5	38'	–	–	–	26 (24%)	–
24 D. Dumfries D	6.5	38'	–	–	2	17 (15%)	3
4 Dean Huijsen D	6.5	38'	–	–	–	32 (31%)	–
16 Ibrahima Konaté D	6.3	38'	–	–	–	35 (35%)	–
18 Álvaro Carreras D	6.3	38'	–	–	–	27 (26%)	1

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Confidence Medium (63%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Real Madrid win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.1%

Both teams to score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

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Espanyol

LLWDL

Real Madrid

LWWWL

Last 3 meetings Espanyol · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In this La Liga matchup, Espanyol faces Real Madrid, a team that has historically dominated this fixture, winning 67% of their encounters over the last decade. Real Madrid's attacking prowess, led by their high goal-scoring forwards, contrasts with Espanyol's defensive struggles, as they conceded an average of 1.5 goals per match last season. Additionally, Madrid's midfield control will be crucial against Espanyol's sporadic pressing. Given these factors, Real Madrid is favored to secure a victory, though Espanyol will aim to capitalize on any defensive lapses.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Real Madrid goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	9	10	6	3	1
1	4	12	10	6	3	1
2	3	5	5	3	1	1
3	1	2	2	1
4
5

↑ Espanyol goals · most likely 1–1 (12.1%)

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Players in form

Espanyol

Roberto Fernández 6 gls

Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé 7 gls

J. Bellingham 3 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

63%

Draw

23%

Home Win

14%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

46%

2.5

54%

68%

3.5

32%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

63%

Draw

23%

Home Win

14%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

75% Away (No Draw) 25% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

33% Away Win by 2+ 7% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

56% Away Scores More 25% Equal Goals 19% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

46%

2.5

54%

68%

3.5

32%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	9.2%	9.9%	6.2%	2.9%
1	4.4%	12.1%	10.0%	6.3%	2.9%
2	2.9%	5.4%	5.1%	3.2%	1.5%
3	1.0%	1.8%	1.7%	1.1%	0.5%
4	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

33%

25%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Espanyol	Draw	Real Madrid
Espanyol	10.4%	3.8%	2.5%
Draw	7.6%	15.4%	17.9%
Real Madrid	1.4%	4.2%	36.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

36%

37%

19%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

45%

1.5

55%

72%

2.5

28%

89%

3.5

11%

Away Exact Goals

16%

29%

27%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

78%

1.5

22%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Espanyol vs Real Madrid

1 Espanyol Wins

0 Draws

2 Real Madrid Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
03 May 2026	Espanyol	0 - 2	Real Madrid
20 Sep 2025	Real Madrid	2 - 0	Espanyol
01 Feb 2025	Espanyol	1 - 0	Real Madrid

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Espanyol — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Elche	L	1 - 3
15 Sep	A Rayo Vallecano	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Osasuna	W	0 - 2
06 Sep	H Sevilla	D	1 - 1
29 Aug	A Real Sociedad	L	2 - 1

Real Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Atletico Madrid	L	2 - 1
15 Sep	A Elche	W	2 - 3
12 Sep	H Rayo Vallecano	W	4 - 1
08 Sep	H Inter	W	2 - 1
04 Sep	A Real Betis	L	1 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Espanyol

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Manolo Gonzalez

13 Dmitrović

21 Hinojo

14 Núñez

5 Riedel

23 Hilali

24 Dolan

8 Expósito

4 González

22 Calatrava

28 Hernández

9 Fernández

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	Marko Dmitrović	G
23	Omar El Hilali	D
5	Clemens Riedel	D
14	Unai Núñez	D
21	Roger Hinojo	D
22	Álex Calatrava	M
4	Urko González	M
8	Edu Expósito	M
24	Tyrhys Dolan	M
9	Roberto Fernández	F
28	Javier Hernández	F

Substitutes

31	Llorenç Serred	G
1	Angel Fortuno	G
27	Adama Timera	F
32	José Ángel López	D
3	Quilindschy Hartman	D
16	Vanja Drkušić	D
26	Rafael Bauzà	M
20	Gabriel Moscardo	M
17	Jofre Carreras	F
10	Pol Lozano	M
11	Pere Milla	M
18	Marcos Fernández	F

Real Madrid

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: José Mourinho

1 Courtois

18 Carreras

4 Huijsen

16 Konaté

24 Dumfries

8 Valverde

20 Silva

7 Júnior

5 Bellingham

15 Güler

10 Mbappé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Thibaut Courtois	G
24	Denzel Dumfries	D
16	Ibrahima Konaté	D
4	Dean Huijsen	D
18	Álvaro Carreras	D
20	Bernardo Silva	M
8	Federico Valverde	M
15	Arda Güler	M
5	Jude Bellingham	M
7	Vinícius Júnior	M
10	Kylian Mbappé	F

Substitutes

26	Sergio Mestre	G
13	Andriy Lunin	G
17	Marc Cucurella	D
33	Mario Rivas	D
12	Trent Alexander-Arnold	D
22	Antonio Rüdiger	D
21	Brahim Díaz	M
36	Alexis Ciria	M
29	Jorge Cestero	M
6	Eduardo Camavinga	M
25	Yan Diomande	F
19	Carlos Espí	F