Atletico Madrid vs Malaga Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 1

Post on X

Malaga

Away

AI call Atletico Madrid to win or draw

67%

21%

12%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Atletico Madrid vs Malaga prediction: Sportiko gives Atletico Madrid a 67% chance of winning, Malaga 12% and the draw 21%. Last updated 19 Aug 2026, 21:06.

Premium picks

Premium

2nd Half Over 0.5 76%
1st Half Over 0.5 71%
Under 3.5 Goals 71%

Premium members had these picks before kick-off. See Premium picks

Match Report

Atletico Madrid opened their La Liga campaign with a comfortable 2–0 home victory over Malaga, though it took until the second half for the deadlock to be broken. The first half was a scrappy affair, with three yellow cards distributed before the interval but little in the way of clear-cut chances, as both sides went into the break goalless.

Atletico asserted their dominance after a flurry of substitutions around the hour mark, and Kang-in Lee broke the deadlock on 70 minutes with a well-taken finish. Alex Baena then wrapped up the points on 85 minutes to give the scoreline a convincing look. The stats underlined Atletico's control throughout, with the hosts holding 53 percent possession, registering 15 total shots to Malaga's five, and generating an expected goals figure of 0.82 compared to just 0.17 for the visitors.

The result was in line with pre-match expectations, with our AI model having identified an Atletico win as the most likely outcome at 67 percent. Malaga, who finished with just one shot on target, will need to show considerably more attacking intent as the season progresses.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Dávid Hancko Yellow Card

15' ▮

Jorge Domínguez Yellow Card

37' ▮

▮ 45+4'

Carlos Puga Yellow Card

HT 0–0

Jorge Domínguez ⇄ Marcos Llorente

46' ⇄

Arnau Ortiz ⇄ Alex Baena

57' ⇄

Carlos Martín ⇄ Kang-in Lee

57' ⇄

Rodrigo Mendoza ⇄ Giuliano Simeone

57' ⇄

⇄ 67'

Carlos Dotor ⇄ Rafa Rodriguez

⇄ 67'

Joaquín Muñoz ⇄ Juan Cruz

Kang-in Lee assist: Dávid Hancko

70' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 72'

Carlos Puga ⇄ Jose Salinas

Koke ⇄ Morten Hjulmand

78' ⇄

▮ 80'

Juan Cruz Yellow Card

⇄ 81'

Einar Galilea ⇄ Ramón Enríquez

⇄ 81'

Dani Lorenzo ⇄ Eneko Jauregi

Alex Baena

85' ⚽ 2–0

▮ 88'

Ramón Enríquez Yellow Card

FT 2–0

Atletico Madrid

Match Stats

Malaga

53% Ball Possession 47%

0.82 Expected Goals (xG) 0.17

15 Total Shots 5

6 Shots on Goal 1

5 Shots off Goal 2

4 Blocked Shots 2

8 Shots insidebox 4

7 Shots outsidebox 1

6 Corner Kicks 1

2 Offsides 2

16 Fouls 10

2 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 4

497 Total passes 454

436 Passes accurate 386

88% Passes % 85%

0.44 goals_prevented 0.44

Atletico Madrid

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 Dávid Hancko D	8.3	94'	–	1	2	95 (91%)	3
7 Kang-in Lee M	8.2	37'	1	–	2	10 (9%)	3
10 Alex Baena M	7.7	37'	1	–	1	18 (14%)	–
8 Pablo Barrios M	7.3	94'	–	–	–	53 (48%)	–
6 Koke M	7.2	78'	–	–	–	67 (59%)	2
24 Robin Le Normand D	6.9	94'	–	–	–	28 (26%)	2
4 Rodrigo Mendoza M	6.9	57'	–	–	2	22 (20%)	2
23 Morten Hjulmand M	6.7	16'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	1
13 Jan Oblak G	6.7	94'	–	–	–	26 (21%)	–
27 Jorge Domínguez D	6.7	45'	–	–	–	14 (13%)	2
16 Arnau Ortiz M	6.7	57'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	1
14 Marcos Llorente M	6.6	49'	–	–	–	30 (28%)	1
30 Dani Martinez D	6.6	94'	–	–	–	55 (47%)	2
11 Ademola Lookman F	6.5	94'	–	–	2	24 (18%)	1
20 Giuliano Simeone F	6.3	37'	–	–	–	20 (15%)	–
12 Carlos Martín M	6.2	57'	–	–	2	20 (15%)	–

Malaga

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Alfonso Herrero G	7.9	94'	–	–	–	46 (31%)	–
8 Carlos Dotor M	7.5	67'	–	–	–	27 (23%)	4
4 Einar Galilea D	6.9	80'	–	–	–	50 (41%)	4
22 Dani Lorenzo M	6.9	80'	–	–	–	50 (49%)	2
3 Carlos Puga D	6.7	72'	–	–	–	27 (23%)	–
23 Izan Merino M	6.7	94'	–	–	–	49 (45%)	1
11 Joaquín Muñoz M	6.7	67'	–	–	–	24 (19%)	1
31 Rafa Garrido D	6.6	94'	–	–	–	38 (33%)	–
19 Juan Cruz M	6.5	27'	–	–	–	8 (8%)	1
14 Rafa Rodriguez M	6.3	27'	–	–	1	9 (9%)	–
6 Ramón Enríquez M	6.3	14'	–	–	–	17 (14%)	–
17 Eneko Jauregi F	6.3	14'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	1
12 Jose Salinas D	6.2	22'	–	–	–	8 (5%)	–
15 Ángel Recio D	6.2	94'	–	–	–	56 (49%)	–
10 David Larrubia M	6.2	94'	–	–	2	22 (21%)	4
9 Chupete F	5.9	94'	–	–	–	20 (14%)	1

Premium

Unlock the AI's full read on Atletico Madrid vs Malaga

All 70+ probability markets
AI Deep-Dive match report
Value Edge — model vs market
Pick types you choose

Go Premium

Confidence Medium (67%)

At a glance

Our lean

Atletico Madrid to win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.7%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Atletico Madrid

WWWLL

Malaga

LLDDL

Last 3 meetings Atletico Madrid · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

Atletico Madrid enters this La Liga clash against Malaga with a strong defensive record, having conceded only 25 goals in the previous season. Their attack, led by a potent forward line, averaged 1.8 goals per match last season. Conversely, Malaga struggled offensively, finishing with one of the lowest scoring outputs in the league. Given Atletico's robust form and tactical discipline, they are likely to dominate possession and create more scoring opportunities. A win for Atletico seems probable, considering their overall quality and recent performances.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Malaga goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	8	5	3	1
1	10	13	6	2
2	10	10	5	2
3	6	6	3	1
4	3	3	1
5	1	1

↑ Atletico Madrid goals · most likely 1–1 (12.7%)

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Players in form

Atletico Madrid

Álex Baena 4 gls

J. David 3 gls

Malaga

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

Why this pick? · Premium AI Deep-Dive · Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.

Unlock all models

Match Result

Home Win

67%

Draw

21%

Away Win

12%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

48%

2.5

52%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Draw or Away

Premium

Match Result

Home Win

67%

Draw

21%

Away Win

12%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Draw or Away

Premium

Winner

73% Home (No Draw) 27% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

30% Home Win by 2+ 8% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

53% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals 20% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

48%

2.5

52%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

Premium

1-3 Goals

Premium

2-3 Goals

Premium

3-5 Goals

Premium

1-2 Goals

Premium

4-6 Goals

Premium

Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

Premium

BTTS & Under 3.5

Premium

BTTS & Over 3.5

Premium

Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Draw & Over 2.5

Premium

Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

Premium

Home/Away & Over 2.5

Premium

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

Premium

Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.9%	4.9%	3.2%	1.1%	0.3%
1	9.8%	12.7%	5.6%	1.9%	0.5%
2	9.9%	9.9%	5.0%	1.7%	0.4%
3	5.8%	5.8%	2.9%	1.0%	0.2%
4	2.6%	2.6%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

Premium

1st Half Draw

Premium

1st Half Away Win

Premium

1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

Premium

1st Half Home or Away

Premium

1st Half Draw or Away

Premium

1h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

Premium

1h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

Premium

2nd Half Home Win

Premium

2nd Half Away Win

Premium

2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

Premium

2nd Half Draw or Away

Premium

2nd Half Home or Away

Premium

2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

Premium

2h Exact Goals

24%

31%

27%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Atletico Madrid	Draw	Malaga
Atletico Madrid	39.0%	5.8%	2.2%
Draw	14.4%	16.1%	9.7%
Malaga	1.4%	2.7%	8.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

48%

1.5

52%

75%

2.5

25%

91%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

17%

31%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

Premium

Home +1 Win

Premium

Away +2 Win

Premium

Away +1 Win

Premium

Home -1 Win

Premium

Home -1 Draw

Premium

Home -2 Draw

Premium

Home -2 Win

Premium

Away -1 Draw

Premium

Away -1 Win

Premium

Away -2 Draw

Premium

Away -2 Win

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Head to Head: Atletico Madrid vs Malaga

3 Atletico Madrid Wins

0 Draws

0 Malaga Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 Feb 2018	Malaga	0 - 1	Atletico Madrid
16 Sep 2017	Atletico Madrid	1 - 0	Malaga
01 Apr 2017	Malaga	0 - 2	Atletico Madrid

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Atletico Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Real Madrid	W	2 - 1
16 Sep	H Osasuna	W	4 - 0
13 Sep	A Real Sociedad	W	0 - 3
09 Sep	A Liverpool	L	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Athletic Club	L	3 - 0

Malaga — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Getafe	L	1 - 0
17 Sep	H Villarreal	L	1 - 3
13 Sep	A Celta Vigo	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	H Levante	D	0 - 0
30 Aug	A Real Madrid	L	4 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Atletico Madrid

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: D. Simeone

13 Oblak

30 Martinez

17 Hancko

24 Normand

27 Domínguez

6 Koke

16 Ortiz

8 Barrios

4 Mendoza

12 Martín

11 Lookman

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	Jan Oblak	G
27	Jorge Domínguez	D
24	Robin Le Normand	D
17	Dávid Hancko	D
30	Dani Martinez	D
6	Koke	M
12	Carlos Martín	M
4	Rodrigo Mendoza	M
8	Pablo Barrios	M
16	Arnau Ortiz	M
11	Ademola Lookman	F

Substitutes

14	Marcos Llorente	M
10	Alex Baena	M
7	Kang-in Lee	M
20	Giuliano Simeone	F
1	Juan Musso	G
18	Marc Pubill	D
2	José María Giménez	D
22	Alejandro Grimaldo	D
23	Morten Hjulmand	M
5	Johnny Cardoso	M
46	Jorge Castillo	M
29	Miguel Cubo	F

Malaga

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Juan Funes

1 Herrero

31 Garrido

4 Galilea

15 Recio

3 Puga

23 Merino

11 Muñoz

22 Lorenzo

8 Dotor

10 Larrubia

9 Chupete

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Alfonso Herrero	G
3	Carlos Puga	D
15	Ángel Recio	D
4	Einar Galilea	D
31	Rafa Garrido	D
23	Izan Merino	M
10	David Larrubia	M
8	Carlos Dotor	M
22	Dani Lorenzo	M
11	Joaquín Muñoz	M
9	Chupete	F

Substitutes

13	Carlos Lopez	G
12	Jose Salinas	D
5	Álex Pastor	D
14	Rafa Rodriguez	M
28	Joseph Otunenche	M
6	Ramón Enríquez	M
19	Juan Cruz	M
32	Juan Fernandéz	F
24	Julen Lobete	F
7	Haitam Abaida	F
17	Eneko Jauregi	F