Atletico Madrid vs Malaga Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 1

19 Aug 2026, 19:00

Post on X

Malaga

Away

AI call Atletico Madrid to win

68%

22%

10%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Atletico Madrid vs Malaga prediction: Sportiko gives Atletico Madrid a 68% chance of winning, Malaga 10% and the draw 22%. Last updated 28 Jul 2026, 16:44.

Premium picks

Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — the AI's sharpest picks across all 70+ markets are Premium.

75% 74% 71% 70%

See Premium picks

Free account

Unlock all of today's AI predictions — free

You've seen today's free previews. Create a free account for the AI call, win probabilities and confidence on every match — plus follow your teams and get the daily digest.

Already have an account? Log in

Premium

Unlock the AI's full read on Atletico Madrid vs Malaga

All 70+ probability markets
AI Deep-Dive match report
Value Edge — model vs market
Live in-play co-pilot

Go Premium

At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 13.6%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Atletico Madrid

LWLWW

Malaga

LWDDD

Last 3 meetings Atletico Madrid · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

Atletico Madrid enters this La Liga clash against Malaga with a strong defensive record, having conceded only 25 goals in the previous season. Their attack, led by a potent forward line, averaged 1.8 goals per match last season. Conversely, Malaga struggled offensively, finishing with one of the lowest scoring outputs in the league. Given Atletico's robust form and tactical discipline, they are likely to dominate possession and create more scoring opportunities. A win for Atletico seems probable, considering their overall quality and recent performances.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Malaga goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	3	2
1	12	10	3	1
2	14	10	3	1
3	9	7	2	1
4	5	4	1
5	2	1	1

↑ Atletico Madrid goals · most likely 2–0 (13.6%)

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

Why this pick? · Premium AI Deep-Dive · Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.

Unlock all models

Match Result

Home Win

68%

Draw

22%

Away Win

10%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

22%

1.5

78%

48%

2.5

52%

70%

3.5

30%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Draw or Away

Premium

Match Result

Home Win

68%

Draw

22%

Away Win

10%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Draw or Away

Premium

Winner

87% Home (No Draw) 13% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

44% Home Win by 2+ 3% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

68% Home Scores More 22% Equal Goals 10% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

22%

1.5

78%

48%

2.5

52%

70%

3.5

30%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

15%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

Premium

1-3 Goals

Premium

2-3 Goals

Premium

3-5 Goals

Premium

1-2 Goals

Premium

4-6 Goals

Premium

Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

Premium

BTTS & Under 3.5

Premium

BTTS & Over 3.5

Premium

Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Draw & Over 2.5

Premium

Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

Premium

Home/Away & Over 2.5

Premium

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

Premium

Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	3.2%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%
1	11.7%	10.4%	3.3%	0.8%	0.1%
2	13.6%	9.6%	3.4%	0.8%	0.1%
3	9.5%	6.7%	2.4%	0.6%	0.1%
4	5.0%	3.5%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

Premium

1st Half Draw

Premium

1st Half Away Win

Premium

1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

Premium

1st Half Home or Away

Premium

1st Half Draw or Away

Premium

1h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

Premium

1h Exact Goals

25%

32%

26%

12%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

Premium

2nd Half Draw

Premium

2nd Half Away Win

Premium

2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

Premium

2nd Half Home or Away

Premium

2nd Half Draw or Away

Premium

2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

Premium

2h Exact Goals

26%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Atletico Madrid	Draw	Malaga
Atletico Madrid	48.2%	2.9%	0.6%
Draw	19.1%	13.7%	4.0%
Malaga	2.2%	3.1%	6.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

88%

39%

1.5

61%

66%

2.5

34%

86%

3.5

14%

Home Exact Goals

13%

26%

28%

19%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

49%

35%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

69%

0.5

31%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

71%

0.5

29%

95%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

Premium

Home +1 Win

Premium

Away +2 Win

Premium

Home -1 Win

Premium

Away +1 Win

Premium

Home -1 Draw

Premium

Home -2 Win

Premium

Home -2 Draw

Premium

Away -1 Draw

Premium

Away -1 Win

Premium

Away -2 Draw

Premium

Away -2 Win

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Head to Head: Atletico Madrid vs Malaga

3 Atletico Madrid Wins

0 Draws

0 Malaga Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 Feb 2018	Malaga	0 - 1	Atletico Madrid
16 Sep 2017	Atletico Madrid	1 - 0	Malaga
01 Apr 2017	Malaga	0 - 2	Atletico Madrid

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Atletico Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Manchester United	L	2 - 1
29 Jul	H Getafe	W	4 - 1
24 May	A Villarreal	L	5 - 1
17 May	H Girona	W	1 - 0
12 May	A Osasuna	W	1 - 2

Malaga — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Aug	A AD Ceuta FC	L	2 - 1
06 Aug	H Al-Arabi SC	W	4 - 2
30 Jul	H Al-Ittihad FC	D	2 - 2
25 Jul	H Leicester	D	3 - 3
14 Jun	H Almeria	D	0 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.