Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 23

30 Jan 2027, 15:00

Post on X

Arsenal

Away

Etihad Stadium, Manchester

AI call Difficult Arsenal win or draw

17%

25%

58%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Manchester City vs Arsenal prediction: Sportiko gives Manchester City a 17% chance of winning, Arsenal 58% and the draw 25%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.1%

Both teams to score

51%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

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Manchester City

WWWWW

Arsenal

LWWWW

Last 3 meetings Manchester City · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Manchester City and Arsenal are set to clash in a crucial Premier League match. City boasts a formidable home record, with their attacking prowess led by Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne, contributing significantly to their goal tally. Arsenal, however, has shown resilience this season with a solid defense and efficient counter-attacking play, driven by Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus. This matchup will likely hinge on City's ability to break down Arsenal's defense while the Gunners will aim to exploit any vulnerabilities on the counter. The tactical battle between Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta adds an intriguing layer to this high-stakes encounter.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Arsenal goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	11	11	7	3	1
1	4	12	10	6	3	1
2	3	5	4	3	1
3	1	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Manchester City goals · most likely 1–1 (12.1%)

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Players in form

Manchester City

E. Haaland 5 gls

R. Cherki 3 gls

A. Semenyo 2 gls

Arsenal

B. Saka 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

58%

Draw

25%

Home Win

17%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

52%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

58%

Draw

25%

Home Win

17%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

78% Away (No Draw) 22% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

34% Away Win by 2+ 6% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

58% Away Scores More 25% Equal Goals 17% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

52%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.8%	10.5%	11.1%	6.9%	3.2%
1	4.4%	12.1%	10.0%	6.2%	2.9%
2	2.6%	4.8%	4.5%	2.8%	1.3%
3	0.8%	1.5%	1.4%	0.8%	0.4%
4	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

54%

1.5

46%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Manchester City	Draw	Arsenal
Manchester City	7.9%	2.9%	1.8%
Draw	7.7%	15.7%	17.1%
Arsenal	1.5%	4.7%	40.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

77%

1.5

23%

94%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

41%

37%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

45%

1.5

55%

72%

2.5

28%

89%

3.5

11%

Away Exact Goals

16%

29%

27%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Manchester City vs Arsenal

2 Manchester City Wins

0 Draws

1 Arsenal Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
16 Aug 2026	Arsenal	3 - 0	Manchester City
19 Apr 2026	Manchester City	2 - 1	Arsenal
22 Mar 2026	Arsenal	0 - 2	Manchester City

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Manchester City — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Sunderland	W	5 - 3
17 Sep	H Norwich	W	5 - 0
13 Sep	A Manchester United	W	0 - 1
08 Sep	A FC Porto	W	0 - 2
05 Sep	H Coventry	W	1 - 0

Arsenal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Brighton	L	3 - 0
15 Sep	A Ipswich	W	2 - 4
12 Sep	A Sunderland	W	0 - 2
09 Sep	A Napoli	W	0 - 1
06 Sep	H Chelsea	W	2 - 1

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.