Leeds vs Chelsea Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 22

23 Jan 2027, 15:00

Post on X

Chelsea

Away

AI call Chelsea or draw

28%

31%

41%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Leeds vs Chelsea prediction: Sportiko gives Leeds a 28% chance of winning, Chelsea 41% and the draw 31%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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76% 73% 73%

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.7%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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Leeds

DWLDD

Chelsea

LDWLW

Last 3 meetings Leeds · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Leeds faces Chelsea in a Premier League clash that promises intensity as both teams vie for crucial points. Leeds has shown a propensity for attacking play, averaging 1.5 goals per match this season, but they also concede 1.8 goals, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Chelsea, on the other hand, has a more solid defense, conceding only 1.1 goals per match, while their attack has been more potent, averaging 1.8 goals. Key matchups in midfield and the effectiveness of set pieces could dictate the outcome, making this a tightly contested fixture. Both teams will need to capitalize on their strengths while minimizing defensive errors to secure a favorable result.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

28%

10%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

41%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Chelsea goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	11	8	4	1
1	8	15	9	4	1
2	5	7	4	2	1
3	2	2	2	1
4		1
5

↑ Leeds goals · most likely 1–1 (14.7%)

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Players in form

Leeds

D. Calvert-Lewin 3 gls

Chelsea

João Pedro 3 gls

M. Rogers 3 gls

C. Palmer 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

41%

Draw

31%

Home Win

28%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

41%

Draw

31%

Home Win

28%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

60% Away (No Draw) 40% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Away Win by 2+ 11% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

41% Away Scores More 31% Equal Goals 28% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.2%	10.8%	8.3%	3.6%	1.2%
1	8.2%	14.7%	8.6%	3.8%	1.3%
2	5.1%	6.8%	4.5%	2.0%	0.7%
3	1.8%	2.3%	1.6%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

34%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Leeds	Draw	Chelsea
Leeds	16.8%	5.0%	2.6%
Draw	10.7%	20.3%	18.1%
Chelsea	1.2%	3.5%	21.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Leeds vs Chelsea

1 Leeds Wins

1 Draws

1 Chelsea Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
09 Sep 2026	Chelsea	6 - 3	Leeds
10 Feb 2026	Chelsea	2 - 2	Leeds
03 Dec 2025	Leeds	3 - 1	Chelsea

See all 9 meetings — Premium

Leeds — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Crystal Palace	D	0 - 0
14 Sep	H Newcastle	W	4 - 1
09 Sep	A Chelsea	L	6 - 3
05 Sep	A Brighton	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	H Brentford	D	1 - 1

Chelsea — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Brentford	L	3 - 0
12 Sep	H Hull City	D	2 - 2
09 Sep	H Leeds	W	6 - 3
06 Sep	A Arsenal	L	2 - 1
30 Aug	H Brighton	W	4 - 3

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.