Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 22

23 Jan 2027, 15:00

Post on X

Newcastle

Away

Emirates Stadium, London

AI call Arsenal to win

83%

14%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Arsenal vs Newcastle prediction: Sportiko gives Arsenal a 83% chance of winning, Newcastle 3% and the draw 14%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 20.1%

Both teams to score

24%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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Arsenal

LWWWW

Newcastle

WLWDW

Last 3 meetings Arsenal · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Premier League match, Arsenal will face Newcastle with both teams aiming to secure crucial points. Arsenal has shown a strong attacking form, averaging 2.2 goals per match this season, while Newcastle boasts a solid defense, conceding only 1 goal per game. The matchup presents a clash of styles, with Arsenal's possession-based play against Newcastle's counter-attacking strategy. Key players to watch include Arsenal's top scorer, who has been instrumental in their offensive threat, and Newcastle's standout defender, who has been critical in maintaining clean sheets. This contest will be pivotal for both sides in their pursuit of European qualification.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Newcastle goals →

	0	1	2
0	8	1
1	16	6	1
2	20	6	1
3	16	5	1
4	10	3
5	5	1

↑ Arsenal goals · most likely 2–0 (20.1%)

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Players in form

Arsenal

B. Saka 3 gls

Newcastle

J. Willock 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

83%

Draw

14%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

74%

3.5

26%

90%

4.5

10%

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

83%

Draw

14%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

97% Home (No Draw) 3% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

60% Home Win by 2+ 0% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

83% Home Scores More 14% Equal Goals 3% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

74%

3.5

26%

90%

4.5

10%

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

18%

26%

23%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.7%	1.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
1	16.2%	5.7%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.1%	6.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	16.0%	4.8%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
4	9.6%	2.9%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

35%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

33%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Arsenal	Draw	Newcastle
Arsenal	59.1%	1.2%	0.1%
Draw	23.6%	10.4%	1.3%
Newcastle	1.4%	1.3%	1.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

91%

32%

1.5

68%

59%

2.5

41%

81%

3.5

19%

Home Exact Goals

10%

23%

27%

22%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

71%

1.5

29%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Arsenal vs Newcastle

3 Arsenal Wins

0 Draws

0 Newcastle Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
25 Apr 2026	Arsenal	1 - 0	Newcastle
28 Sep 2025	Newcastle	1 - 2	Arsenal
18 May 2025	Arsenal	1 - 0	Newcastle

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Arsenal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Brighton	L	3 - 0
15 Sep	A Ipswich	W	2 - 4
12 Sep	A Sunderland	W	0 - 2
09 Sep	A Napoli	W	0 - 1
06 Sep	H Chelsea	W	2 - 1

Newcastle — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Hull City	W	2 - 1
14 Sep	A Leeds	L	4 - 1
08 Sep	A Millwall	W	0 - 1
05 Sep	H Bournemouth	D	2 - 2
29 Aug	A Tottenham	W	0 - 2

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.