Chelsea vs Sunderland Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 21

16 Jan 2027, 15:00

Post on X

Sunderland

Away

Stamford Bridge, London

AI call Chelsea to win or draw

76%

20%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Chelsea vs Sunderland prediction: Sportiko gives Chelsea a 76% chance of winning, Sunderland 4% and the draw 20%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 20.3%

Both teams to score

23%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

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Chelsea

LDWLW

Sunderland

LWLWD

Last 3 meetings Chelsea · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Premier League clash, Chelsea faces Sunderland. Chelsea has been strong at home, boasting a solid attack with an average of 2.1 goals per match this season, while Sunderland has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game. Chelsea’s midfield control and pressing game could exploit Sunderland’s weaknesses, particularly their vulnerability on the flanks. Defensive resilience will be crucial for Sunderland to limit Chelsea’s goal-scoring opportunities. Overall, Chelsea’s superior squad depth and tactical flexibility may give them the edge in this matchup.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

76%

45%

Draw

20%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Sunderland goals →

	0	1	2
0	12	2
1	20	7	1
2	20	6	1
3	13	4	1
4	6	2
5	3	1

↑ Chelsea goals · most likely 2–0 (20.3%)

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Players in form

Chelsea

João Pedro 3 gls

M. Rogers 3 gls

C. Palmer 2 gls

Sunderland

B. Brobbey 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

76%

Draw

20%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

76%

Draw

20%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

95% Home (No Draw) 5% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

50% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

76% Home Scores More 20% Equal Goals 4% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

22%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.5%	2.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
1	20.1%	7.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.3%	6.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	13.2%	4.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
4	6.5%	1.9%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

77%

1.5

23%

94%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

41%

35%

17%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

34%

24%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Chelsea	Draw	Sunderland
Chelsea	46.5%	1.3%	0.1%
Draw	29.3%	15.0%	2.0%
Sunderland	1.7%	1.9%	2.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

43%

1.5

57%

70%

2.5

30%

88%

3.5

12%

Home Exact Goals

14%

28%

27%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

82%

1.5

18%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

67%

1.5

33%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Chelsea vs Sunderland

1 Chelsea Wins

0 Draws

2 Sunderland Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
24 May 2026	Sunderland	2 - 1	Chelsea
25 Oct 2025	Chelsea	1 - 2	Sunderland
21 May 2017	Chelsea	5 - 1	Sunderland

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Chelsea — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Brentford	L	3 - 0
12 Sep	H Hull City	D	2 - 2
09 Sep	H Leeds	W	6 - 3
06 Sep	A Arsenal	L	2 - 1
30 Aug	H Brighton	W	4 - 3

Sunderland — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Manchester City	L	5 - 3
16 Sep	H AZ Alkmaar	W	1 - 0
12 Sep	H Arsenal	L	0 - 2
08 Sep	H Hull City	W	1 - 0
05 Sep	A Brentford	D	1 - 1

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.