Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 14

05 Dec 2026, 15:00

Post on X

Sunderland

Away

AI call Newcastle or draw

35%

32%

33%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Newcastle vs Sunderland prediction: Sportiko gives Newcastle a 35% chance of winning, Sunderland 33% and the draw 32%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 15.1%

Both teams to score

48%

Over 2.5 goals

39%

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Newcastle

WLWDW

Sunderland

LWLWD

Last 3 meetings Newcastle · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

Newcastle faces Sunderland in a Premier League clash on December 5, 2026. Historically, Newcastle has shown stronger form in recent encounters, often capitalizing on their attacking prowess, leading the league in goals scored this season. Sunderland, while competitive, has struggled defensively, averaging over 1.5 goals conceded per match. Key players like Newcastle’s top scorer will be crucial in breaking down Sunderland's defense. The match promises to be intense, with both teams vying for vital points in the league standings.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

35%

10%

Draw

32%

45%

Away

33%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Sunderland goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	10	6	2	1
1	10	15	7	3	1
2	7	8	4	2
3	3	3	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Newcastle goals · most likely 1–1 (15.1%)

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Players in form

Newcastle

J. Willock 2 gls

Sunderland

B. Brobbey 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

35%

Away Win

33%

Draw

32%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

35%

Away Win

33%

Draw

32%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

51% Home (No Draw) 49% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

15% Home Win by 2+ 14% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

35% Home Scores More 33% Away Scores More 32% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

20%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.2%	9.9%	6.4%	2.4%	0.7%
1	10.3%	15.1%	7.4%	2.7%	0.8%
2	6.9%	7.7%	4.3%	1.6%	0.4%
3	2.7%	2.9%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.8%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Newcastle	Draw	Sunderland
Newcastle	20.5%	4.3%	1.6%
Draw	13.9%	21.4%	13.3%
Sunderland	1.6%	4.3%	19.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

32%

36%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Newcastle vs Sunderland

0 Newcastle Wins

1 Draws

2 Sunderland Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
22 Mar 2026	Newcastle	1 - 2	Sunderland
14 Dec 2025	Sunderland	1 - 0	Newcastle
20 Mar 2016	Newcastle	1 - 1	Sunderland

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Newcastle — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Hull City	W	2 - 1
14 Sep	A Leeds	L	4 - 1
08 Sep	A Millwall	W	0 - 1
05 Sep	H Bournemouth	D	2 - 2
29 Aug	A Tottenham	W	0 - 2

Sunderland — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Manchester City	L	5 - 3
16 Sep	H AZ Alkmaar	W	1 - 0
12 Sep	H Arsenal	L	0 - 2
08 Sep	H Hull City	W	1 - 0
05 Sep	A Brentford	D	1 - 1

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.