Brighton vs Newcastle Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 12

28 Nov 2026, 15:00

Post on X

Newcastle

Away

AI call Brighton to win

82%

15%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Brighton vs Newcastle prediction: Sportiko gives Brighton a 82% chance of winning, Newcastle 3% and the draw 15%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 20.3%

Both teams to score

24%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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Brighton

WWWDL

Newcastle

WLWDW

Last 3 meetings Brighton · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Premier League clash, Brighton faces Newcastle, both teams looking to solidify their positions in the top half of the table. Brighton has shown a strong home form with an average of 1.8 goals per game at home this season, while Newcastle has been solid on the road, averaging 1.5 goals per game. Defensively, Brighton has conceded fewer goals per match than Newcastle, indicating a potential advantage in defensive stability. This match could hinge on Brighton's ability to exploit Newcastle’s defensive vulnerabilities, especially during counter-attacks. Expect a tightly contested game, with both sides eager to secure crucial points.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

82%

45%

Draw

15%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Newcastle goals →

	0	1	2
0	8	2
1	17	6	1
2	20	6	1
3	16	5	1
4	9	3
5	4	1

↑ Brighton goals · most likely 2–0 (20.3%)

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Players in form

Brighton

P. Groß 3 gls

C. Kostoulas 2 gls

M. Yalcouyé 2 gls

Newcastle

J. Willock 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

82%

Draw

15%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

27%

1.5

73%

53%

2.5

47%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

82%

Draw

15%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

96% Home (No Draw) 4% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

58% Home Win by 2+ 0% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

82% Home Scores More 15% Equal Goals 3% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

27%

1.5

73%

53%

2.5

47%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

19%

27%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	1.6%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
1	16.9%	6.0%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.3%	6.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	15.5%	4.7%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
4	8.9%	2.7%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

35%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

33%

25%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Brighton	Draw	Newcastle
Brighton	57.3%	1.3%	0.1%
Draw	24.2%	11.2%	1.5%
Newcastle	1.4%	1.4%	1.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

34%

1.5

66%

61%

2.5

39%

82%

3.5

18%

Home Exact Goals

10%

24%

27%

21%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Brighton vs Newcastle

1 Brighton Wins

1 Draws

1 Newcastle Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
02 May 2026	Newcastle	3 - 1	Brighton
18 Oct 2025	Brighton	2 - 1	Newcastle
04 May 2025	Brighton	1 - 1	Newcastle

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Brighton — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Arsenal	W	3 - 0
16 Sep	A Manchester United	W	2 - 3
13 Sep	A Coventry	W	0 - 5
05 Sep	H Leeds	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	A Chelsea	L	4 - 3

Newcastle — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Hull City	W	2 - 1
14 Sep	A Leeds	L	4 - 1
08 Sep	A Millwall	W	0 - 1
05 Sep	H Bournemouth	D	2 - 2
29 Aug	A Tottenham	W	0 - 2

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.