Chelsea vs Leeds Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 11

21 Nov 2026, 15:00

Post on X

Leeds

Away

Stamford Bridge, London

AI call Difficult Chelsea win or draw

52%

30%

17%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Chelsea vs Leeds prediction: Sportiko gives Chelsea a 52% chance of winning, Leeds 17% and the draw 30%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:0 · 14.9%

Both teams to score

41%

Over 2.5 goals

37%

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Chelsea

LDWLW

Leeds

DWLDD

Last 3 meetings Chelsea · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Chelsea faces Leeds in a Premier League clash on November 21, 2026. Chelsea has generally demonstrated strong attacking tendencies, averaging over 2 goals per match this season, while Leeds has struggled defensively, conceding around 1.8 goals per match. Key players for Chelsea, such as their top scorer, could exploit Leeds' defensive frailties, particularly on the flanks. Leeds will need to tighten their defense and capitalize on counter-attacks to pose a threat. Overall, Chelsea's offensive capability gives them an edge in this matchup.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

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Independent

Home

52%

45%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

17%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Leeds goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	13	7	3	1
1	15	14	4	1
2	12	9	3	1
3	6	4	2
4	2	1	1
5	1

↑ Chelsea goals · most likely 1–0 (14.9%)

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Players in form

Chelsea

João Pedro 3 gls

M. Rogers 3 gls

C. Palmer 2 gls

Leeds

D. Calvert-Lewin 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

30%

Away Win

17%

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS No 41% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

35%

1.5

65%

63%

2.5

37%

83%

3.5

17%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

30%

Away Win

17%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

75% Home (No Draw) 25% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Home Win by 2+ 5% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

52% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals 17% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

35%

1.5

65%

63%

2.5

37%

83%

3.5

17%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS No 41% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

22%

29%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.0%	6.8%	3.1%	0.7%	0.1%
1	14.9%	13.6%	4.4%	1.1%	0.2%
2	11.9%	8.7%	3.2%	0.8%	0.1%
3	5.7%	4.2%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
4	2.1%	1.5%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

76%

1.5

24%

94%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

42%

35%

17%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Chelsea	Draw	Leeds
Chelsea	28.6%	3.0%	0.7%
Draw	22.6%	20.9%	7.3%
Leeds	2.5%	4.3%	10.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

24%

34%

25%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

48%

35%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

71%

0.5

29%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Chelsea vs Leeds

1 Chelsea Wins

1 Draws

1 Leeds Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
09 Sep 2026	Chelsea	6 - 3	Leeds
10 Feb 2026	Chelsea	2 - 2	Leeds
03 Dec 2025	Leeds	3 - 1	Chelsea

See all 9 meetings — Premium

Chelsea — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Brentford	L	3 - 0
12 Sep	H Hull City	D	2 - 2
09 Sep	H Leeds	W	6 - 3
06 Sep	A Arsenal	L	2 - 1
30 Aug	H Brighton	W	4 - 3

Leeds — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Crystal Palace	D	0 - 0
14 Sep	H Newcastle	W	4 - 1
09 Sep	A Chelsea	L	6 - 3
05 Sep	A Brighton	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	H Brentford	D	1 - 1

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.