Leeds vs Tottenham Prediction
Leeds vs Tottenham prediction: Sportiko gives Leeds a 35% chance of winning, Tottenham 36% and the draw 29%. Last updated 7 Nov 2026, 14:28.
Premium picks
Premium- Away to Score 74%
- Home to Score 73%
- 1st Half Draw or Away 75%
- Under 3.5 Goals 72%
Match Report
Leeds claimed a narrow but significant 1–0 victory over Tottenham at Elland Road, with the only goal arriving late in the second half. The first half was a tense, goalless affair disrupted by early bookings for Micky van de Ven and Sean Longstaff, while both sides made tactical substitutions around the break. Tottenham dominated possession and created the clearer opportunities throughout, finishing with 16 total shots to Leeds' five and an expected goals figure of 2.04 compared to just 0.36 for the hosts.
Despite that statistical dominance, it was Leeds who broke the deadlock when Noah Okafor struck in the 79th minute, only to receive a yellow card just moments later. Tottenham's afternoon was further complicated by Pedro Porro's dismissal — picking up his second booking shortly after the hour mark — which disrupted their shape during the crucial final stages.
Our pre-match AI model had rated a Tottenham win as the most likely outcome at 36%, a call the final scoreline emphatically overturned. Leeds held firm to secure all three points in a result that defied the underlying numbers entirely.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Leeds
Match Stats
Leeds
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Noah Okafor F | 8.0 | 13' | 1 | – | 1 | 3 (3%) | – |
| 5 Tarik Muharemović D | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 51 (41%) | 1 |
| 1 James Trafford G | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 28 (16%) | – |
| 30 Nico Elvedi D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 27 (25%) | 2 |
| 24 James Justin D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (26%) | – |
| 2 Jayden Bogle M | 7.2 | 93' | – | – | 3 | 16 (13%) | 1 |
| 3 Gabriel Gudmundsson M | 7.1 | 46' | – | – | – | 19 (15%) | 4 |
| 4 Ethan Ampadu M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 35 (32%) | 3 |
| 9 Dominic Calvert-Lewin F | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 18 (11%) | – |
| 22 Ao Tanaka M | 6.8 | 77' | – | – | 2 | 27 (23%) | 5 |
| 14 Lukas Nmecha M | 6.6 | 77' | – | – | 2 | 10 (7%) | 1 |
| 26 Melvin Bard D | 6.5 | 44' | – | – | – | 20 (12%) | 3 |
| 10 Harry Wilson F | 6.5 | 13' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 8 Sean Longstaff M | 6.4 | 93' | – | – | 1 | 24 (21%) | 2 |
Tottenham
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 J. van Hecke D | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 70 (62%) | – |
| 30 Rodrigo Bentancur M | 7.2 | 25' | – | – | 1 | 31 (30%) | 3 |
| 14 Archie Gray M | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 28 (27%) | 1 |
| 8 Conor Gallagher M | 6.8 | 25' | – | – | 1 | 24 (19%) | 2 |
| 3 Andy Robertson D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 59 (46%) | – |
| 37 M. van de Ven D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 66 (63%) | – |
| 68 Luca Williams-Barnett M | 6.6 | 7' | – | – | – | 4 (3%) | – |
| 18 Mateus Fernandes M | 6.5 | 65' | – | – | – | 51 (45%) | 1 |
| 21 D. Kulusevski M | 6.5 | 25' | – | – | – | 9 (6%) | 3 |
| 31 Antonín Kinský G | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (23%) | – |
| 20 Mohammed Hamad Alqahtani F | 6.3 | 83' | – | – | 1 | 25 (23%) | 1 |
| 11 Mathys Tel F | 6.3 | 43' | – | – | – | 11 (10%) | – |
| 22 Omar Marmoush F | 6.2 | 65' | – | – | 2 | 7 (6%) | 1 |
| 19 Dominic Solanke F | 6.1 | 47' | – | – | – | 7 (5%) | – |
| 16 Sandro Tonali M | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 37 (26%) | 1 |
| 23 Pedro Porro D | 5.6 | 65' | – | – | – | 40 (26%) | 2 |
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At a glance
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Upgrade NowMatch summary
Live insights
Min 83: Leeds leads 1-0. Win probability: 91%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 9%.
Late goal makes it 1-0! Leeds win probability: 88.9%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 23.4%.
Min 76: Still level at 0-0. Draw looking likely at 69.5%. Late goal chance: 33.8%.
Half-time: 0-0. Second half goals expected - Over 0.5 remaining: 72.4%. Over 1.5 remaining: 40.4%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Most likely scores
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
D. Calvert-Lewin
3 gls
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Leeds vs Tottenham
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May 2026 | Tottenham | 1 - 1 | Leeds |
| 04 Oct 2025 | Leeds | 1 - 2 | Tottenham |
| 28 May 2023 | Leeds | 1 - 4 | Tottenham |
Leeds — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | H Tottenham | W | 1 - 0 |
| 31 Oct | A Bournemouth | L | 2 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | A Sunderland | D | 0 - 0 |
| 18 Oct | H Manchester United | D | 1 - 1 |
| 10 Oct | A Arsenal | L | 2 - 1 |
Tottenham — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A Leeds | L | 1 - 0 |
| 31 Oct | H Crystal Palace | W | 2 - 0 |
| 24 Oct | A Chelsea | W | 0 - 2 |
| 19 Oct | H Coventry | W | 3 - 1 |
| 10 Oct | A Manchester United | D | 1 - 1 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |
Manchester City
|
10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
|
9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 |
Everton
|
10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 |
Brentford
|
9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 14 |
| 8 |
Leeds
|
10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 |
Bournemouth
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |
Tottenham
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 |
Newcastle
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 |
Aston Villa
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |
Hull City
|
10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |
Ipswich
|
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 |
Fulham
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |
Nottingham Forest
|
10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |
Coventry
|
10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |
Manchester United
|
9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 19 |
Crystal Palace
|
9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 20 |
Sunderland
|
9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 5 |
Tottenham
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: R. De Zerbi
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | A. Kinský | G |
| 23 | Pedro Porro | D |
| 6 | J. van Hecke | D |
| 37 | M. van de Ven | D |
| 3 | A. Robertson | D |
| 16 | S. Tonali | M |
| 18 | Mateus Fernandes | M |
| 14 | A. Gray | M |
| 20 | M. Kudus | F |
| 22 | Omar Marmoush | F |
| 11 | M. Tel | F |
Substitutes
| 19 | D. Solanke | F |
| 68 | L. Williams-Barnett | M |
| 30 | R. Bentancur | M |
| 21 | D. Kulusevski | M |
| 10 | J. Maddison | M |
| 8 | C. Gallagher | M |
| 33 | B. Davies | D |
| 5 | M. Senesi | D |
| 46 | Luca Gunter | G |
Leeds
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: D. Farke
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Trafford | G |
| 24 | J. Justin | D |
| 30 | N. Elvedi | D |
| 5 | T. Muharemović | D |
| 2 | J. Bogle | M |
| 4 | E. Ampadu | M |
| 22 | A. Tanaka | M |
| 3 | G. Gudmundsson | M |
| 8 | S. Longstaff | M |
| 14 | L. Nmecha | M |
| 9 | D. Calvert-Lewin | F |
Substitutes
| 19 | N. Okafor | F |
| 11 | B. Aaronson | M |
| 10 | H. Wilson | F |
| 7 | D. James | F |
| 44 | I. Gruev | M |
| 6 | J. Rodon | D |
| 15 | J. Bijol | D |
| 26 | M. Bard | D |
| 16 | M. Zetterer | G |