Manchester City vs Brighton Prediction
Manchester City vs Brighton prediction: Sportiko gives Manchester City a 56% chance of winning, Brighton 21% and the draw 23%. Last updated 31 Oct 2026, 16:54.
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Premium- Under 4.5 76%
- Away to Score 71%
Match Report
Brighton claimed a famous victory at the Etihad Stadium, beating Manchester City 1–0 to register what will surely rank among their standout Premier League results. Yasin Ayari struck early, converting in the 11th minute to give the visitors a lead they would carry into the break and ultimately protect for the full 90.
City dominated the statistical landscape throughout, finishing with 62% possession, seven corners, and 20 total shots to Brighton's seven, but their xG of 1.98 ultimately counted for nothing as they failed to convert any of their five shots on target. Brighton's defensive resilience was tested repeatedly in the second half, with Pep Guardiola's side throwing on Enzo Fernández, Iliman Ndiaye, and Joško Gvardiol among others in search of an equaliser that never came.
Our pre-match AI model had rated a Manchester City win as the most likely outcome at 56%, a call that Brighton emphatically disproved. The result leaves City with questions to answer about their cutting edge, while Fabian Hürzeler's side take three well-earned points from one of English football's toughest venues.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Manchester City
Match Stats
Manchester City
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Elliot Anderson M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 60 (52%) | 4 |
| 45 Abdukodir Khusanov D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 92 (86%) | 1 |
| 27 Matheus Nunes D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 30 (26%) | 1 |
| 1 Gianluigi Donnarumma G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (33%) | – |
| 7 Iliman Ndiaye F | 6.8 | 79' | – | – | 4 | 36 (31%) | 1 |
| 11 Jérémy Doku F | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 28 (22%) | 3 |
| 33 Nico O'Reilly D | 6.6 | 26' | – | – | 2 | 16 (13%) | 2 |
| 24 Joško Gvardiol D | 6.5 | 79' | – | – | 1 | 68 (53%) | 2 |
| 37 Allan F | 6.5 | 11' | – | – | 1 | 11 (9%) | 1 |
| 10 Rayan Cherki M | 6.4 | 35' | – | – | 2 | 30 (25%) | – |
| 3 Rúben Dias D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 98 (83%) | 1 |
| 9 Erling Haaland F | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 4 | 13 (7%) | – |
| 17 Enzo Fernández M | 6.3 | 64' | – | – | 2 | 32 (25%) | – |
| 47 Phil Foden M | 6.3 | 11' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | – |
| 32 Ayyoub Bouaddi M | 6.1 | 55' | – | – | – | 23 (20%) | – |
Brighton
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 B. Verbruggen G | 8.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 44 (34%) | – |
| 26 Yasin Ayari M | 8.0 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 23 (16%) | 2 |
| 5 Lewis Dunk D | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 51 (49%) | – |
| 44 Luka Vušković D | 7.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 42 (36%) | – |
| 29 Maxim De Cuyper M | 7.2 | 72' | – | 1 | 2 | 22 (14%) | 2 |
| 35 Malick Yalcouyé M | 7.1 | 18' | – | – | – | 4 (3%) | 2 |
| 3 Jaouen Hadjam D | 7.0 | 26' | – | – | – | 6 (4%) | – |
| 21 Olivier Boscagli D | 6.9 | 64' | – | – | – | 28 (20%) | – |
| 27 M. Wieffer M | 6.8 | 26' | – | – | – | 7 (6%) | – |
| 10 Georginio Rutter F | 6.8 | 6' | – | – | 1 | 4 (2%) | – |
| 13 Pascal Groß M | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 24 (21%) | 1 |
| 20 Costinha D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 24 (17%) | 3 |
| 8 Jack Hinshelwood M | 6.6 | 18' | – | – | 1 | 3 (1%) | – |
| 14 Chema Andrés M | 6.5 | 64' | – | – | – | 30 (23%) | 5 |
| 19 Charalampos Kostoulas F | 6.5 | 72' | – | – | – | 18 (13%) | 1 |
| 25 Diego Gómez M | 6.3 | 84' | – | – | 2 | 29 (18%) | 2 |
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At a glance
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Upgrade NowMatch summary
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Most likely scores
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
E. Haaland
9 gls
R. Cherki
4 gls
C. Kostoulas
3 gls
Y. Ayari
3 gls
J. Hinshelwood
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Manchester City vs Brighton
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | Manchester City | 2 - 2 | Brighton |
| 07 Jan 2026 | Manchester City | 1 - 1 | Brighton |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Brighton | 2 - 1 | Manchester City |
Manchester City — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A Nottingham Forest | L | 3 - 1 |
| 04 Nov | A RB Leipzig | W | 2 - 3 |
| 31 Oct | H Brighton | L | 0 - 1 |
| 28 Oct | H Brighton | D | 2 - 2 |
| 24 Oct | A Aston Villa | L | 2 - 1 |
Brighton — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | A Getafe | W | 0 - 1 |
| 31 Oct | A Manchester City | W | 0 - 1 |
| 28 Oct | A Manchester City | D | 2 - 2 |
| 25 Oct | A Liverpool | L | 2 - 0 |
| 22 Oct | A FK Jablonec | D | 0 - 0 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |
Manchester City
|
10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
|
9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 |
Everton
|
10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 |
Brentford
|
9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 14 |
| 8 |
Leeds
|
10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 |
Bournemouth
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |
Tottenham
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 |
Newcastle
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 |
Aston Villa
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |
Hull City
|
10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |
Ipswich
|
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 |
Fulham
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |
Nottingham Forest
|
10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |
Coventry
|
10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |
Manchester United
|
9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 19 |
Crystal Palace
|
9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 20 |
Sunderland
|
9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 5 |
Manchester City
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: E. Maresca
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | G. Donnarumma | G |
| 27 | Matheus Nunes | D |
| 45 | A. Khusanov | D |
| 3 | Rúben Dias | D |
| 24 | J. Gvardiol | D |
| 32 | A. Bouaddi | M |
| 5 | E. Anderson | M |
| 17 | E. Fernández | M |
| 7 | I. Ndiaye | F |
| 9 | E. Haaland | F |
| 11 | J. Doku | F |
Substitutes
| 8 | M. Kovačić | M |
| 10 | R. Cherki | M |
| 47 | P. Foden | M |
| 37 | Allan | F |
| 28 | G. Rulli | G |
| 6 | M. Guéhi | D |
| 22 | Vitor Nunes | D |
| 33 | N. O'Reilly | D |
| 82 | R. Lewis | D |
Brighton
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: F. Hürzeler
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | B. Verbruggen | G |
| 20 | Costinha | D |
| 44 | L. Vušković | D |
| 5 | L. Dunk | D |
| 21 | O. Boscagli | D |
| 13 | P. Groß | M |
| 14 | José María Andrés Baixauli | M |
| 25 | D. Gómez | M |
| 26 | Y. Ayari | M |
| 29 | M. De Cuyper | M |
| 19 | C. Kostoulas | F |
Substitutes
| 3 | J. Hadjam | D |
| 27 | M. Wieffer | M |
| 30 | M. Svoboda | D |
| 8 | J. Hinshelwood | M |
| 10 | G. Rutter | F |
| 11 | Y. Minteh | F |
| 33 | M. O'Riley | M |
| 23 | J. Steele | G |
| 35 | M. Yalcouyé | M |