Aston Villa vs Manchester City Prediction
Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction: Sportiko gives Aston Villa a 19% chance of winning, Manchester City 58% and the draw 23%. Last updated 24 Oct 2026, 13:25.
Premium picks
Premium- 1st Half Over 0.5 76%
- Under 4.5 76%
- Away 2H Over 0.5 74%
- Draw/Away & Over 1.5 70%
- Home to Score 70%
Match Report
Aston Villa claimed a 2–1 victory over Manchester City in a lively Premier League encounter, with Nicolas Jackson proving the decisive figure on the night. Jackson opened the scoring in just the sixth minute, giving Villa an early advantage they carried into half-time. The home side dominated possession throughout, controlling 63% of the ball and generating 1.7 expected goals to City's 0.6.
Manchester City levelled through Erling Haaland just after the hour mark, but Villa responded almost immediately. Jackson struck again in the 60th minute to restore the home side's lead, completing a brace that proved enough to secure all three points. The match was disrupted by a flurry of bookings and substitutions, with both Marc Guéhi and Rayan Cherki forced off at half-time having each received yellow cards.
Villa held firm despite City pressing for an equaliser, limiting the visitors to just two shots on target. The result defied the pre-match AI model, which had rated a Manchester City win as the most likely outcome at 58%. Villa's defensive resilience and Jackson's clinical finishing ultimately told the story.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Aston Villa
Match Stats
Aston Villa
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nicolas Jackson F | 8.9 | 82' | 2 | – | 3 | 15 (9%) | 1 |
| 7 John McGinn M | 7.6 | 66' | – | 1 | – | 12 (8%) | 1 |
| 1 Zion Suzuki G | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 46 (33%) | – |
| 3 Victor Lindelöf D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 41 (35%) | 1 |
| 2 Matty Cash D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 22 (19%) | 8 |
| 22 Ian Maatsen D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 29 (23%) | 4 |
| 10 Emiliano Buendía M | 6.7 | 24' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | 3 |
| 8 Boubacar Kamara M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (27%) | 5 |
| 47 Alysson M | 6.6 | 59' | – | – | 2 | 7 (5%) | 3 |
| 35 João Gomes M | 6.5 | 82' | – | – | – | 28 (27%) | 1 |
| 44 Johan Manzambi M | 6.4 | 66' | – | – | 1 | 7 (5%) | 3 |
| 14 Pau Torres D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 58 (49%) | – |
| 27 Leon Goretzka M | 6.3 | 8' | – | – | – | 3 (2%) | – |
| 39 Brian Madjo F | 6.3 | 8' | – | – | – | 3 (2%) | – |
| 19 Ibrahim Mbaye F | 6.2 | 31' | – | 1 | – | 3 (2%) | – |
| 6 Ross Barkley M | 6.0 | 24' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | – |
Manchester City
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Erling Haaland F | 7.7 | 90' | 1 | – | 3 | 7 (4%) | – |
| 45 Abdukodir Khusanov D | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 66 (59%) | 8 |
| 11 Jérémy Doku M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 36 (27%) | – |
| 17 Enzo Fernández M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 78 (75%) | – |
| 47 Phil Foden M | 6.7 | 44' | – | – | 1 | 20 (20%) | – |
| 7 Iliman Ndiaye M | 6.6 | 69' | – | 1 | 2 | 29 (23%) | – |
| 5 Elliot Anderson M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 72 (69%) | 1 |
| 56 Ryan McAidoo F | 6.5 | 21' | – | – | – | 9 (6%) | – |
| 24 Joško Gvardiol D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 42 (38%) | 3 |
| 3 Rúben Dias D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 81 (76%) | – |
| 6 Marc Guéhi D | 6.1 | 46' | – | – | – | 30 (29%) | – |
| 82 Rico Lewis D | 6.0 | 44' | – | – | – | 19 (13%) | – |
| 10 Rayan Cherki M | 5.9 | 46' | – | – | 1 | 19 (15%) | – |
| 1 Gianluigi Donnarumma G | 5.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 13 (12%) | – |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Most likely scores
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
N. Jackson
5 gls
E. Haaland
9 gls
R. Cherki
4 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Aston Villa vs Manchester City
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | Manchester City | 1 - 2 | Aston Villa |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Aston Villa | 1 - 0 | Manchester City |
| 22 Apr 2025 | Manchester City | 2 - 1 | Aston Villa |
Aston Villa — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov | A Barcelona | L | 3 - 0 |
| 31 Oct | H Fulham | D | 1 - 1 |
| 28 Oct | A Bournemouth | L | 3 - 0 |
| 24 Oct | H Manchester City | W | 2 - 1 |
| 21 Oct | H Viking | W | 3 - 1 |
Manchester City — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A Nottingham Forest | L | 3 - 1 |
| 04 Nov | A RB Leipzig | W | 2 - 3 |
| 31 Oct | H Brighton | L | 0 - 1 |
| 28 Oct | H Brighton | D | 2 - 2 |
| 24 Oct | A Aston Villa | L | 2 - 1 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |
Manchester City
|
10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
|
9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 |
Everton
|
10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 |
Brentford
|
9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 14 |
| 8 |
Leeds
|
10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 |
Bournemouth
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |
Tottenham
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 |
Newcastle
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 |
Aston Villa
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |
Hull City
|
10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |
Ipswich
|
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 |
Fulham
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |
Nottingham Forest
|
10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |
Coventry
|
10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |
Manchester United
|
9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 19 |
Crystal Palace
|
9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 20 |
Sunderland
|
9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 5 |
Manchester City
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: E. Maresca
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | G. Donnarumma | G |
| 45 | A. Khusanov | D |
| 6 | M. Guéhi | D |
| 3 | Rúben Dias | D |
| 24 | J. Gvardiol | D |
| 5 | E. Anderson | M |
| 17 | E. Fernández | M |
| 7 | I. Ndiaye | M |
| 10 | R. Cherki | M |
| 11 | J. Doku | M |
| 9 | E. Haaland | F |
Substitutes
| 47 | P. Foden | M |
| 56 | R. McAidoo | F |
| 28 | G. Rulli | G |
| 21 | R. Aït-Nouri | D |
| 22 | Vitor Nunes | D |
| 33 | N. O'Reilly | D |
| 82 | R. Lewis | D |
| 8 | M. Kovačić | M |
| 32 | A. Bouaddi | M |
Aston Villa
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Unai Emery
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Z. Suzuki | G |
| 2 | M. Cash | D |
| 3 | V. Lindelöf | D |
| 14 | Pau Torres | D |
| 22 | I. Maatsen | D |
| 8 | B. Kamara | M |
| 35 | João Gomes | M |
| 47 | Alysson Edward | M |
| 7 | J. McGinn | M |
| 44 | J. Manzambi | M |
| 11 | N. Jackson | F |
Substitutes
| 39 | Brian Madjo | F |
| 19 | I. Mbaye | F |
| 53 | George Hemmings | M |
| 27 | L. Goretzka | M |
| 26 | L. Bogarde | M |
| 10 | E. Buendía | M |
| 6 | R. Barkley | M |
| 5 | T. Mings | D |
| 40 | M. Bizot | G |