Leeds vs Manchester United Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 7

17 Oct 2026, 14:00

Post on X

Manchester United

Away

AI call Leeds or draw

40%

28%

32%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Leeds vs Manchester United prediction: Sportiko gives Leeds a 40% chance of winning, Manchester United 32% and the draw 28%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.4%

Both teams to score

59%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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Leeds

DWLDD

Manchester United

DLLWD

Last 3 meetings Leeds · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Leeds faces Manchester United in a crucial Premier League clash. Leeds has shown resilience, often capitalizing on set pieces, while Manchester United has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match this season. The attacking prowess of United, led by their top scorers, will be challenged by Leeds' aggressive pressing style. This match could hinge on Leeds’ ability to convert chances and United's need to tighten their backline. Expect a competitive contest with both teams looking to secure vital points.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Manchester United goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	6	5	2	1
1	7	13	8	3	1
2	7	9	6	3	1
3	3	4	3	1
4	1	2	1
5		1

↑ Leeds goals · most likely 1–1 (13.4%)

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Players in form

Leeds

D. Calvert-Lewin 3 gls

Manchester United

Bruno Fernandes 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

40%

Away Win

32%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 41% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

40%

Away Win

32%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

55% Home (No Draw) 45% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Home Win by 2+ 15% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

40% Home Scores More 32% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 41% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

22%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5%	6.4%	5.3%	2.3%	0.8%
1	7.4%	13.4%	7.9%	3.5%	1.2%
2	6.7%	8.9%	5.9%	2.6%	0.9%
3	3.3%	4.5%	3.0%	1.3%	0.4%
4	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

29%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Leeds	Draw	Manchester United
Leeds	23.9%	4.5%	2.0%
Draw	14.5%	17.0%	12.0%
Manchester United	2.4%	4.7%	19.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

56%

1.5

44%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

22%

34%

25%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Leeds vs Manchester United

1 Leeds Wins

1 Draws

1 Manchester United Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
13 Apr 2026	Manchester United	1 - 2	Leeds
04 Jan 2026	Leeds	1 - 1	Manchester United
12 Feb 2023	Leeds	0 - 2	Manchester United

See all 8 meetings — Premium

Leeds — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Crystal Palace	D	0 - 0
14 Sep	H Newcastle	W	4 - 1
09 Sep	A Chelsea	L	6 - 3
05 Sep	A Brighton	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	H Brentford	D	1 - 1

Manchester United — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Fulham	D	1 - 1
16 Sep	H Brighton	L	2 - 3
13 Sep	H Manchester City	L	0 - 1
10 Sep	H Sabah FA	W	4 - 0
06 Sep	A Everton	D	2 - 2

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.