Chelsea vs Bournemouth Prediction
FT
Stamford Bridge, London
AI call
Difficult Chelsea win or draw
52%
25%
23%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Chelsea vs Bournemouth prediction: Sportiko gives Chelsea a 52% chance of winning, Bournemouth 23% and the draw 25%. Last updated 10 Oct 2026, 15:55.
Premium picks
Premium- 1st Half Home or Draw 76%
- Away to Score 70%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off.
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Timeline
Jordan Henderson
assist: Cole Palmer
2'
⚽
1–0
Morgan Rogers
assist: Jordan Henderson
3'
⚽
2–0
▮
10'
Marcus Tavernier
Yellow Card
▮
42'
Adrien Truffert
Yellow Card
⇄
45'
David Brooks
⇄ Ben Gannon-Doak
HT 2–0
João Pedro
assist: Pedro Neto
46'
⚽
3–0
⚽
3–1
51'
Evanilson
▮
62'
Tyler Adams
Yellow Card
João Pedro
assist: Josep Chavarría
67'
⚽
4–1
▮
69'
Ryan Christie
Yellow Card
Jordan Henderson
70'
⚽
5–1
Moisés Caicedo
⇄ Roméo Lavia
72'
⇄
João Pedro
⇄ Marco Palestra
72'
⇄
⇄
72'
Adam Smith
⇄ Juanlu Sánchez
⇄
72'
Marcus Tavernier
⇄ Álvaro Rodriguez
⇄
73'
Ryan Christie
⇄ Lewis Cook
Pedro Neto
⇄ Danny Welbeck
83'
⇄
Morgan Rogers
⇄ Estêvão
84'
⇄
⇄
84'
Adrien Truffert
⇄ J. Soler
Cole Palmer
⇄ Malo Gusto
88'
⇄
FT 5–1
Chelsea
Match Stats
Bournemouth
40%
Ball Possession
60%
1.16
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
10
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Goal
4
2
Shots off Goal
3
2
Blocked Shots
2
7
Shots insidebox
6
3
Shots outsidebox
3
1
Corner Kicks
7
1
Offsides
0
7
Fouls
15
0
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
476
Total passes
459
400
Passes accurate
386
15
Free Kicks
7
Chelsea
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jordan Henderson M | 9.6 | 90' | 2 | 1 | 3 | 60 (52%) | – |
| 9 João Pedro F | 8.8 | 72' | 2 | – | 2 | 16 (12%) | – |
| 29 Josep Chavarría M | 7.7 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 40 (36%) | – |
| 17 Morgan Rogers F | 7.6 | 84' | 1 | – | 2 | 27 (20%) | 3 |
| 10 Cole Palmer F | 7.1 | 88' | – | 1 | – | 29 (23%) | 2 |
| 6 Levi Colwill D | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 71 (67%) | 1 |
| 5 Maxence Lacroix D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 49 (44%) | 1 |
| 1 Emiliano Martínez G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (25%) | – |
| 7 Pedro Neto M | 6.9 | 83' | – | 1 | 2 | 26 (20%) | 2 |
| 25 Moisés Caicedo M | 6.8 | 72' | – | – | 1 | 53 (51%) | 4 |
| 41 Estêvão F | 6.7 | 6' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 45 Roméo Lavia M | 6.6 | 18' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | 1 |
| 27 Malo Gusto D | 6.5 | 2' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 18 Danny Welbeck F | 6.5 | 7' | – | – | – | 1 | – |
| 2 Marco Palestra D | 6.4 | 18' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 34 Josh Acheampong D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 49 (40%) | 4 |
Bournemouth
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Evanilson F | 7.9 | 90' | 1 | – | 3 | 32 (29%) | 1 |
| 11 Ben Gannon-Doak F | 6.4 | 44' | – | – | – | 22 (15%) | 1 |
| 10 Ryan Christie M | 6.4 | 73' | – | – | 1 | 34 (28%) | 1 |
| 30 Álvaro Rodriguez F | 6.3 | 18' | – | – | 1 | 8 (5%) | – |
| 12 Tyler Adams M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 56 (52%) | – |
| 37 Rayan M | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 18 (15%) | 1 |
| 3 Adrien Truffert D | 6.0 | 84' | – | – | – | 42 (38%) | 4 |
| 1 Đorđe Petrović G | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 24 (19%) | – |
| 5 James Hill D | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 73 (57%) | 4 |
| 4 Lewis Cook M | 5.9 | 17' | – | – | – | 8 (7%) | – |
| 24 Juanlu Sánchez M | 5.8 | 18' | – | – | – | 10 (9%) | – |
| 14 António Silva D | 5.7 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 72 (64%) | 2 |
| 16 Marcus Tavernier M | 5.6 | 72' | – | – | – | 22 (19%) | 1 |
| 7 David Brooks M | 5.5 | 46' | – | – | – | 9 (7%) | 1 |
| 6 J. Soler D | 5.5 | 6' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 15 Adam Smith D | 5.4 | 72' | – | – | – | 21 (17%) | – |
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Confidence
Medium (52%)
At a glance
Our lean
Difficult Chelsea win or draw
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Chelsea
WDLWW
Bournemouth
WWWWW
Last 3 meetings
Chelsea · 0W 3D 0L
Match summary
Chelsea will face Bournemouth in a Premier League clash on October 10, 2026. Chelsea has shown a strong home record, typically capitalizing on their attacking prowess, with key players contributing to a significant portion of their goals. Bournemouth, while capable of surprises, tends to struggle defensively against top-tier teams, often conceding more than two goals per match in away fixtures against stronger sides. This match could see Chelsea leveraging their offensive strengths to control the game and secure a vital three points.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
52%
45%
Draw
25%
45%
Away
23%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Chelsea
João Pedro
5 gls
M. Rogers
5 gls
Pedro Neto
3 gls
Bournemouth
M. Tavernier
5 gls
Evanilson
4 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Chelsea vs Bournemouth
0
Chelsea Wins
3
Draws
0
Bournemouth Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | Chelsea | 2 - 2 | Bournemouth |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Bournemouth | 0 - 0 | Chelsea |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Chelsea | 2 - 2 | Bournemouth |
Chelsea — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H Manchester United | W | 2 - 0 |
| 28 Oct | A Liverpool | D | 1 - 1 |
| 24 Oct | H Tottenham | L | 0 - 2 |
| 17 Oct | A Everton | W | 0 - 2 |
| 10 Oct | H Bournemouth | W | 5 - 1 |
Bournemouth — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | A Sparta Praha | W | 1 - 3 |
| 31 Oct | H Leeds | W | 2 - 0 |
| 28 Oct | H Aston Villa | W | 3 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | A Manchester United | W | 0 - 3 |
| 22 Oct | H AC Milan | W | 3 - 0 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |
Manchester City
|
10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
|
9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 |
Everton
|
10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 |
Brentford
|
9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 14 |
| 8 |
Leeds
|
10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 |
Bournemouth
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |
Tottenham
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 |
Newcastle
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 |
Aston Villa
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |
Hull City
|
10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |
Ipswich
|
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 |
Fulham
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |
Nottingham Forest
|
10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |
Coventry
|
10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |
Manchester United
|
9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 19 |
Crystal Palace
|
9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 20 |
Sunderland
|
9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 5 |
Bournemouth
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: M. Rose
1
Petrović
3
Truffert
14
Silva
5
Hill
15
Smith
10
Christie
12
Adams
16
Tavernier
37
Rayan
7
Brooks
9
Evanilson
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Đ. Petrović | G |
| 15 | A. Smith | D |
| 5 | J. Hill | D |
| 14 | António Silva | D |
| 3 | A. Truffert | D |
| 12 | T. Adams | M |
| 10 | R. Christie | M |
| 7 | D. Brooks | M |
| 37 | Rayan | M |
| 16 | M. Tavernier | M |
| 9 | Evanilson | F |
Substitutes
| 24 | Juanlu Sánchez | M |
| 6 | J. Soler | D |
| 30 | Á. Rodríguez | F |
| 29 | D. Jebbison | F |
| 11 | B. Doak | F |
| 18 | B. Diakité | D |
| 20 | M. Di Gregorio | G |
| 4 | L. Cook | M |
| 27 | A. Tóth | M |
Chelsea
Formation: 3-4-3
Coach: Xabi Alonso
1
Martínez
6
Colwill
5
Lacroix
34
Acheampong
29
Chavarría
25
Caicedo
14
Henderson
7
Neto
17
Rogers
9
Pedro
10
Palmer
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Martínez | G |
| 34 | Joshua Kofi Acheampong | D |
| 5 | M. Lacroix | D |
| 6 | L. Colwill | D |
| 7 | Pedro Neto | M |
| 14 | J. Henderson | M |
| 25 | M. Caicedo | M |
| 29 | Pep Chavarría | M |
| 10 | C. Palmer | F |
| 9 | João Pedro | F |
| 17 | M. Rogers | F |
Substitutes
| 41 | Estêvão | F |
| 3 | W. Fofana | D |
| 27 | M. Gusto | D |
| 21 | J. Hato | D |
| 45 | R. Lavia | M |
| 2 | M. Palestra | D |
| 39 | M. Penders | G |
| 18 | D. Welbeck | F |
| 23 | Geovany Tcherno Quenda | M |