Manchester City vs Sunderland Prediction
Manchester City vs Sunderland prediction: Sportiko gives Manchester City a 69% chance of winning, Sunderland 11% and the draw 20%. Last updated 20 Sep 2026, 15:00.
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Premium- Home/Draw & Over 1.5 75%
Match Report
Manchester City edged past Sunderland in a breathless Premier League encounter that produced eight goals and rarely allowed either side to settle. Sunderland struck first through Enzo Fernández in the ninth minute, only for B. Brobbey to equalise almost immediately. Rayan Cherki put City ahead before Brobbey netted again to restore parity, leaving the score 2–2 heading into the final stages of the first half. Antoine Semenyo then struck on 43 minutes to give City a 3–2 lead at the break.
The second half continued in similarly frantic fashion. Semenyo doubled his tally on 57 minutes, and Brobbey completed his hat-trick two minutes later to make it 5–2, effectively settling the contest. Erling Haaland added a late goal, confirmed by VAR, to round off a comfortable victory for the hosts, though Sunderland's consolation efforts kept the scoreline respectable at 5–3.
Our pre-match AI model rated a Manchester City win as most likely at 69%, a call that proved correct. Despite Sunderland's nine shots on goal — more than City's six — the home side's clinical finishing proved the decisive factor across a high-tempo afternoon.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Manchester City
Match Stats
Manchester City
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 Antoine Semenyo M | 9.0 | 90' | 2 | 1 | 2 | 29 (29%) | 2 |
| 10 Rayan Cherki M | 8.0 | 85' | 1 | – | 2 | 66 (59%) | – |
| 9 Erling Haaland F | 7.4 | 90' | 1 | – | 4 | 13 (9%) | – |
| 17 Enzo Fernández M | 7.1 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 54 (44%) | – |
| 11 Jérémy Doku F | 6.8 | 15' | – | – | 1 | 4 (4%) | – |
| 6 Marc Guéhi D | 6.7 | 90' | – | 1 | 1 | 57 (54%) | – |
| 7 Iliman Ndiaye M | 6.6 | 75' | – | – | 2 | 33 (32%) | – |
| 5 Elliot Anderson M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 72 (62%) | 2 |
| 27 Matheus Nunes D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 58 (51%) | 1 |
| 1 Gianluigi Donnarumma G | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 24 (9%) | – |
| 3 Rúben Dias D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 31 (27%) | – |
| 24 Joško Gvardiol D | 6.1 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 25 (20%) | – |
| 33 Nico O'Reilly D | 5.7 | 5' | – | – | 1 | 4 (3%) | 1 |
Sunderland
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 B. Brobbey F | 9.7 | 90' | 3 | – | 5 | 18 (15%) | – |
| 28 Enzo Le Fée M | 7.7 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 27 (21%) | 1 |
| 34 Granit Xhaka M | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 47 (42%) | 3 |
| 12 Thomas Meunier M | 7.1 | 79' | – | 1 | – | 23 (21%) | 2 |
| 39 Malick Fofana F | 6.6 | 30' | – | – | 3 | 8 (5%) | 2 |
| 18 Wilson Isidor F | 6.3 | 22' | – | – | – | 3 (2%) | 1 |
| 10 Nilson Angulo M | 6.2 | 60' | – | 1 | 2 | 12 (11%) | – |
| 20 Nordi Mukiele D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 35 (28%) | 4 |
| 5 Daniel Ballard D | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 34 (26%) | 4 |
| 27 Noah Sadiki M | 5.9 | 68' | – | – | 1 | 31 (26%) | – |
| 4 Kevin Danso D | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 60 (49%) | – |
| 6 Dayann Methalie D | 5.7 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 39 (35%) | 1 |
| 32 Trai Hume D | 5.7 | 11' | – | – | 1 | 5 (5%) | 1 |
| 22 R. Roefs G | 5.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 43 (29%) | – |
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At a glance
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Upgrade NowMatch summary
Live insights
Manchester City now leads 5-3 with 99.8% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 22%.
Min 83: Manchester City leads 5-3. Win probability: 99.8%. Comeback chance: 0.2%.
Min 76: Manchester City leads 4-3. Win probability: 91.6%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 8.4%.
Goal! Score now 4-3. Manchester City win: 88.5%. BTTS: 100%.
Manchester City now leads 4-2 with 98.2% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 68.1%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
E. Haaland
5 gls
R. Cherki
3 gls
A. Semenyo
2 gls
B. Brobbey
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Manchester City vs Sunderland
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan 2026 | Sunderland | 0 - 0 | Manchester City |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Manchester City | 3 - 0 | Sunderland |
| 05 Mar 2017 | Sunderland | 0 - 2 | Manchester City |
Manchester City — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Sunderland | W | 5 - 3 |
| 17 Sep | H Norwich | W | 5 - 0 |
| 13 Sep | A Manchester United | W | 0 - 1 |
| 08 Sep | A FC Porto | W | 0 - 2 |
| 05 Sep | H Coventry | W | 1 - 0 |
Sunderland — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | A Manchester City | L | 5 - 3 |
| 16 Sep | H AZ Alkmaar | W | 1 - 0 |
| 12 Sep | H Arsenal | L | 0 - 2 |
| 08 Sep | H Hull City | W | 1 - 0 |
| 05 Sep | A Brentford | D | 1 - 1 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Manchester City
|
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 |
Brentford
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Leeds
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 |
Everton
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |
Hull City
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |
Newcastle
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Chelsea
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |
Ipswich
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 |
Manchester United
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 |
Nottingham Forest
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |
Aston Villa
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 |
Bournemouth
|
5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 |
Coventry
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 |
Fulham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Manchester City
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: E. Maresca
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | G. Donnarumma | G |
| 27 | Matheus Nunes | D |
| 3 | Rúben Dias | D |
| 6 | M. Guéhi | D |
| 24 | J. Gvardiol | D |
| 17 | E. Fernández | M |
| 5 | E. Anderson | M |
| 7 | I. Ndiaye | M |
| 10 | R. Cherki | M |
| 42 | A. Semenyo | M |
| 9 | E. Haaland | F |
Substitutes
| 8 | M. Kovačić | M |
| 11 | J. Doku | F |
| 32 | A. Bouaddi | M |
| 37 | Allan | F |
| 28 | G. Rulli | G |
| 21 | R. Aït-Nouri | D |
| 33 | N. O'Reilly | D |
| 45 | A. Khusanov | D |
| 82 | R. Lewis | D |
Sunderland
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: R. Le Bris
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | R. Roefs | G |
| 20 | N. Mukiele | D |
| 4 | K. Danso | D |
| 5 | D. Ballard | D |
| 6 | D. Methalie | D |
| 34 | G. Xhaka | M |
| 27 | N. Sadiki | M |
| 12 | T. Meunier | M |
| 28 | E. Le Fée | M |
| 10 | N. Angulo | M |
| 9 | B. Brobbey | F |
Substitutes
| 32 | T. Hume | D |
| 13 | L. O'Nien | M |
| 15 | O. Alderete | D |
| 29 | Jules Ahoka | M |
| 11 | C. Rigg | M |
| 7 | C. Talbi | F |
| 39 | M. Fofana | F |
| 31 | M. Ellborg | G |
| 18 | W. Isidor | F |