Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction
Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction: Sportiko gives Arsenal a 55% chance of winning, Chelsea 19% and the draw 26%. Last updated 6 Sep 2026, 17:29.
Premium picks
Premium- 2nd Half Over 0.5 76%
- 1st Half Over 0.5 73%
Match Report
Arsenal came from behind to claim a 2–1 Premier League victory over Chelsea at the Emirates, with the winning goal arriving early in the second half. Chelsea made a bright start through Morgan Rogers, who struck in the second minute, but Arsenal levelled via Kai Havertz on 25 minutes after a Riccardo Calafiori effort had been ruled out by VAR at the 13-minute mark. The sides went into the break level at 1–1.
Martin Ødegaard settled the contest five minutes after the restart, finishing to put Arsenal ahead for the first time. Chelsea struggled to respond, and a pair of yellow cards issued simultaneously at the 58-minute mark — to Christos Tzolis and Maxence Lacroix — reflected the visitors' growing frustration. Arsenal's pre-match AI model had rated an Arsenal win as the most likely outcome at 55%, a call that proved correct.
Arsenal dominated possession at 55% and registered nine shots on target to Chelsea's five, underlining their control across large stretches of the contest. Both Ødegaard and Havertz were withdrawn before the final quarter, with Arsenal managing the result comfortably through to the final whistle.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Arsenal
Match Stats
Arsenal
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Kai Havertz F | 8.2 | 78' | 1 | – | 3 | 26 (19%) | – |
| 8 Martin Ødegaard M | 8.2 | 77' | 1 | – | 2 | 54 (48%) | – |
| 41 Declan Rice M | 7.7 | 90' | – | 1 | 1 | 67 (62%) | – |
| 17 Christos Tzolis M | 7.7 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 43 (37%) | 1 |
| 1 David Raya G | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 34 (21%) | – |
| 15 Ezri Konsa D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 43 (41%) | 3 |
| 7 Bukayo Saka M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 4 | 28 (24%) | 1 |
| 14 Viktor Gyökeres F | 6.5 | 12' | – | – | – | 3 (2%) | – |
| 5 Piero Hincapié D | 6.4 | 23' | – | – | – | 11 (10%) | 1 |
| 4 Ben White D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 33 (25%) | 2 |
| 49 Myles Lewis-Skelly M | 6.4 | 67' | – | – | 1 | 32 (28%) | – |
| 6 Gabriel Magalhães D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 36 (30%) | – |
| 36 Martín Zubimendi M | 6.2 | 23' | – | – | 1 | 10 (8%) | – |
| 33 Riccardo Calafiori D | 6.1 | 67' | – | – | 2 | 25 (19%) | 1 |
| 23 Mikel Merino M | 6.0 | 13' | – | – | – | 9 (8%) | – |
Chelsea
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Emiliano Martínez G | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 37 (19%) | – |
| 17 Morgan Rogers M | 7.0 | 87' | 1 | – | 3 | 29 (21%) | – |
| 24 Reece James M | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 45 (42%) | – |
| 21 J. Hato M | 6.6 | 60' | – | 1 | – | 14 (11%) | 2 |
| 3 Wesley Fofana D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 47 (43%) | 3 |
| 41 Estêvão F | 6.5 | 9' | – | – | 1 | 5 (4%) | – |
| 45 Roméo Lavia M | 6.5 | 60' | – | – | – | 26 (23%) | 1 |
| 9 João Pedro F | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 19 (13%) | – |
| 7 Pedro Neto M | 6.3 | 81' | – | – | 1 | 22 (18%) | 1 |
| 10 Cole Palmer M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 45 (37%) | – |
| 5 Maxence Lacroix D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 47 (42%) | 1 |
| 27 Malo Gusto D | 6.2 | 30' | – | – | 1 | 18 (16%) | 2 |
| 29 Josep Chavarría D | 6.1 | 30' | – | – | – | 10 (7%) | 1 |
| 34 Josh Acheampong D | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 14 (12%) | – |
| 18 Danny Welbeck F | 5.9 | 3' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
Unlock the AI's full read on Arsenal vs Chelsea
- All 70+ probability markets
- AI Deep-Dive match report
- Value Edge — model vs market
- Pick types you choose
At a glance
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowMatch summary
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
Unlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowPlayers in form
B. Saka
3 gls
João Pedro
3 gls
M. Rogers
3 gls
C. Palmer
2 gls
You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.
Unlock all modelsUnlock all 70+ probability models
Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.
Upgrade NowHead to Head: Arsenal vs Chelsea
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar 2026 | Arsenal | 2 - 1 | Chelsea |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Chelsea | 1 - 1 | Arsenal |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Arsenal | 1 - 0 | Chelsea |
Arsenal — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Brighton | L | 3 - 0 |
| 15 Sep | A Ipswich | W | 2 - 4 |
| 12 Sep | A Sunderland | W | 0 - 2 |
| 09 Sep | A Napoli | W | 0 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | H Chelsea | W | 2 - 1 |
Chelsea — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | A Brentford | L | 3 - 0 |
| 12 Sep | H Hull City | D | 2 - 2 |
| 09 Sep | H Leeds | W | 6 - 3 |
| 06 Sep | A Arsenal | L | 2 - 1 |
| 30 Aug | H Brighton | W | 4 - 3 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Manchester City
|
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 |
Brentford
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Leeds
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 |
Everton
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |
Hull City
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |
Newcastle
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Chelsea
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |
Ipswich
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 |
Manchester United
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 |
Nottingham Forest
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |
Aston Villa
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 |
Bournemouth
|
5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 |
Coventry
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 |
Fulham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Arsenal
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Mikel Arteta
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Raya | G |
| 4 | B. White | D |
| 15 | E. Konsa | D |
| 6 | Gabriel Magalhães | D |
| 33 | R. Calafiori | D |
| 41 | D. Rice | M |
| 49 | M. Lewis-Skelly | M |
| 7 | B. Saka | M |
| 8 | M. Ødegaard | M |
| 17 | C. Tzolis | M |
| 29 | K. Havertz | F |
Substitutes
| 13 | Kepa | G |
| 5 | P. Hincapié | D |
| 10 | E. Eze | M |
| 23 | Mikel Merino | M |
| 36 | Martín Zubimendi | M |
| 39 | Bruno Guimarães | M |
| 56 | M. Dowman | M |
| 14 | V. Gyökeres | F |
| 20 | N. Madueke | F |
Chelsea
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: Xabi Alonso
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Martínez | G |
| 34 | Joshua Kofi Acheampong | D |
| 5 | M. Lacroix | D |
| 3 | W. Fofana | D |
| 7 | Pedro Neto | M |
| 45 | R. Lavia | M |
| 24 | R. James | M |
| 21 | J. Hato | M |
| 10 | C. Palmer | M |
| 17 | M. Rogers | M |
| 9 | João Pedro | F |
Substitutes
| 41 | Estêvão | F |
| 18 | D. Welbeck | F |
| 4 | V. Barco | M |
| 23 | Geovany Tcherno Quenda | M |
| 29 | Pep Chavarría | D |
| 11 | J. Bynoe-Gittens | F |
| 27 | M. Gusto | D |
| 6 | L. Colwill | D |
| 39 | M. Penders | G |