Manchester City vs Bournemouth Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 1

Post on X

Bournemouth

Away

Etihad Stadium, Manchester

AI call Difficult Manchester City win or draw

62%

21%

17%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Manchester City vs Bournemouth prediction: Sportiko gives Manchester City a 62% chance of winning, Bournemouth 17% and the draw 21%. Last updated 23 Aug 2026, 14:58.

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Match Report

Manchester City came from behind to claim a 2–1 victory over Bournemouth in their Premier League opener, despite being outplayed for large stretches of the match. Marcus Tavernier gave the visitors the lead on 26 minutes, and Bournemouth carried that advantage into half-time while dominating possession with 66% of the ball and generating 13 total shots to City's five.

The hosts struggled to impose themselves and did not register their first goal until the 84th minute, when Marc Guéhi levelled the score. Gvardiol then completed the turnaround just before full time, heading City in front in the 90th minute to seal all three points in dramatic fashion. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Manchester City win as the most likely outcome at 62%, a call that ultimately proved correct despite the unconvincing nature of the performance.

The match was not without controversy, with yellow cards shown to Evanilson, Phil Foden, and António Silva, and Foden was subsequently substituted shortly after his booking. Bournemouth's expected goals figure of 2.36 compared to City's 0.63 underlined how fortunate the home side were to take the points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 26'

Marcus Tavernier assist: Evanilson

▮ 45+1'

Evanilson Yellow Card

HT 0–1

Rico Lewis ⇄ Matheus Nunes

57' ⇄

Nico O'Reilly ⇄ Rayan Cherki

63' ⇄

Elliot Anderson ⇄ Mateo Kovačić

63' ⇄

⇄ 75'

Evanilson ⇄ Daniel Jebbison

⇄ 75'

J. Kluivert ⇄ Alex Tóth

⇄ 75'

Lewis Cook ⇄ Tyler Adams

Phil Foden Yellow Card

78' ▮

Phil Foden ⇄ Jack Grealish

82' ⇄

Marc Guéhi assist: Rayan Cherki

84' ⚽ 1–1

▮ 85'

António Silva Yellow Card

⇄ 89'

Rayan ⇄ Ben Gannon-Doak

Joško Gvardiol assist: Rayan Cherki

90+1' ⚽ 2–1

FT 2–1

Manchester City

Match Stats

Bournemouth

66% Ball Possession 34%

2.36 Expected Goals (xG) 0.63

13 Total Shots 5

6 Shots on Goal 4

4 Shots off Goal 1

3 Blocked Shots 0

11 Shots insidebox 4

2 Shots outsidebox 1

8 Corner Kicks 3

2 Offsides 1

11 Fouls 11

1 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 4

633 Total passes 328

563 Passes accurate 261

89% Passes % 80%

1.68 goals_prevented 1.68

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Confidence Medium (62%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Manchester City win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.1%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

46%

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Manchester City

WWWWW

Bournemouth

LWDWD

Last 3 meetings Manchester City · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

Manchester City enters the match against Bournemouth as one of the Premier League's strongest teams, boasting a high possession rate and a potent attacking lineup. Historically, City excels at controlling the midfield and creating scoring opportunities, making them a formidable opponent. Bournemouth, while displaying resilience and tactical adaptability, faces a significant challenge in breaking down City's defense. Recent form and head-to-head statistics favor City, suggesting they are likely to dominate the match. Bournemouth will need to exploit counter-attacking opportunities to secure any points.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Bournemouth goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	9	5	3	1
1	12	13	5	1
2	11	10	4	1
3	6	5	2	1
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Manchester City goals · most likely 1–1 (13.1%)

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Players in form

Manchester City

E. Haaland 5 gls

R. Cherki 3 gls

A. Semenyo 2 gls

Bournemouth

M. Tavernier 3 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

62%

Draw

21%

Away Win

17%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

54%

2.5

46%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

62%

Draw

21%

Away Win

17%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

75% Home (No Draw) 25% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

30% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

54% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals 18% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

54%

2.5

46%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.4%	5.4%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%
1	11.6%	13.1%	5.1%	1.5%	0.3%
2	11.0%	9.7%	4.3%	1.3%	0.3%
3	6.1%	5.4%	2.4%	0.7%	0.2%
4	2.6%	2.2%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

77%

54%

1.5

46%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

31%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Manchester City	Draw	Bournemouth
Manchester City	29.1%	2.9%	0.8%
Draw	23.0%	17.6%	7.0%
Bournemouth	3.4%	4.9%	11.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

51%

1.5

49%

77%

2.5

23%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

19%

32%

26%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

94%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

41%

37%

16%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Manchester City vs Bournemouth

2 Manchester City Wins

1 Draws

0 Bournemouth Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
19 May 2026	Bournemouth	1 - 1	Manchester City
02 Nov 2025	Manchester City	3 - 1	Bournemouth
20 May 2025	Manchester City	3 - 1	Bournemouth

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Manchester City — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Sunderland	W	5 - 3
17 Sep	H Norwich	W	5 - 0
13 Sep	A Manchester United	W	0 - 1
08 Sep	A FC Porto	W	0 - 2
05 Sep	H Coventry	W	1 - 0

Bournemouth — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Liverpool	L	0 - 1
17 Sep	A Real Sociedad	W	1 - 2
12 Sep	H Brentford	D	2 - 2
08 Sep	H Lincoln	W	4 - 0
05 Sep	A Newcastle	D	2 - 2

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.