Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Prediction

Úrvalsdeild · Regular Season - 17

Post on X

Stjarnan

Away

AI call Difficult Valur Reykjavik win or draw

50%

24%

26%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan prediction: Sportiko gives Valur Reykjavik a 50% chance of winning, Stjarnan 26% and the draw 24%. Last updated 3 Aug 2026, 21:09.

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Home or Draw 74%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 16'

assist: Emil Atlason

25' ⚽ 1–1

Yellow Card

28' ▮

⇄ 33'

Guðmundur Kristjánsson

▮ 36'

Yellow Card

▮ 45+3'

Yellow Card

HT 1–1

46' ⇄

⇄ 57'

Emil Atlason

60' ⇄

69' ⇄

▮ 75'

Yellow Card

77' ⇄

80' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 81'

Birnir Snaer Ingason

⇄ 81'

⚽ 2–2 88'

▮ 90'

Yellow Card

⚽ 2–3 90+4'

FT 2–3

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Confidence Medium (50%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Valur Reykjavik win or draw

Most likely score

1:0 · 15.4%

Both teams to score

39%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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Valur Reykjavik

DWWDL

Stjarnan

LWDWW

Match summary

In the upcoming Úrvalsdeild clash, Valur Reykjavik faces Stjarnan, both teams looking to secure crucial points in the league. Valur has shown solid form, leveraging a well-balanced attack, averaging 1.8 goals per match this season. Stjarnan, however, is known for their resilient defense, conceding only 1.1 goals per match. The matchup could hinge on Valur's ability to break through Stjarnan's backline, making this a compelling encounter. Both teams will need to capitalize on set pieces and maintain discipline to control the game's tempo.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

50%

45%

Draw

24%

45%

Away

26%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Stjarnan goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	11	4	2
1	15	11	3	1
2	15	9	3	1
3	9	5	2
4	4	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Valur Reykjavik goals · most likely 1–0 (15.4%)

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Match Result

Home Win

50%

Away Win

26%

Draw

24%

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

31%

1.5

69%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

50%

Away Win

26%

Draw

24%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

86% Home (No Draw) 14% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

38% Home Win by 2+ 3% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

64% Home Scores More 25% Equal Goals 11% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

31%

1.5

69%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

20%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.7%	4.4%	1.7%	0.3%	0.1%
1	15.4%	11.3%	3.0%	0.6%	0.1%
2	14.8%	8.9%	2.7%	0.5%	0.1%
3	8.7%	5.2%	1.6%	0.3%	0.1%
4	3.9%	2.3%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Valur Reykjavik	Draw	Stjarnan
Valur Reykjavik	45.1%	3.0%	0.5%
Draw	18.8%	17.1%	4.5%
Stjarnan	1.6%	3.0%	6.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

48%

1.5

52%

75%

2.5

25%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

55%

33%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

75%

0.5

25%

97%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Valur Reykjavik — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D	1 - 1
13 Sep	H Thor Akureyri	W	4 - 1
05 Sep	A Keflavik	W	1 - 2
30 Aug	H IA Akranes	D	2 - 2
23 Aug	A Vikingur Reykjavik	L	2 - 0

Stjarnan — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A FH hafnarfjordur	L	5 - 2
13 Sep	H IBV Vestmannaeyjar	W	2 - 0
06 Sep	H IBV Vestmannaeyjar	D	2 - 2
31 Aug	A Breidablik	W	0 - 2
23 Aug	H Thor Akureyri	W	4 - 2

Úrvalsdeild Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	22	16	5	1	67	21	+46	53
2	Fram Reykjavik	22	13	6	3	56	42	+14	45
3	KR Reykjavik	22	13	5	4	74	49	+25	44
4	Breidablik	22	8	6	8	43	41	+2	30
5	IA Akranes	22	8	6	8	39	41	-2	30
6	Keflavik	22	8	4	10	33	38	-5	28
7	Stjarnan	22	8	4	10	42	50	-8	28
8	Valur Reykjavik	22	8	3	11	39	45	-6	27
9	FH hafnarfjordur	22	4	9	9	27	39	-12	21
10	Thor Akureyri	22	6	3	13	22	50	-28	21
11	KA Akureyri	22	5	5	12	35	48	-13	20
12	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	22	4	6	12	32	45	-13	18

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.