Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction

First League · Regular Season - 3

Post on X

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Away

Stadion Spartak, Varna

AI call Spartak Varna or draw

40%

28%

32%

Home Win · 3.15 Draw · 3.30 Away Win · 2.39

Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv prediction: Sportiko gives Spartak Varna a 40% chance of winning, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 32% and the draw 28%. Last updated 3 Aug 2026, 20:10.

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Over 1.5 Goals 75% @ 1.31
2nd Half Over 0.5 74%

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Timeline

8' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 31'

Yellow Card

HT 1–0

Yellow Card

50' ▮

▮ 55'

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⇄ 56'

57' ⇄

▮ 61'

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▮ 62'

Yellow Card

⇄ 65'

⇄ 74'

84' ⇄

Yellow Card

86' ▮

Yellow Card

90' ▮

▮ 90'

Yellow Card

90' ⇄

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90+6' ▮

▮ 90+7'

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FT 1–0

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Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Our lean

Spartak Varna or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.1%

Both teams to score

51%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

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Spartak Varna

WWWDL

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

LLWLW

Match summary

In the upcoming First League match, Spartak Varna will face Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Spartak Varna has displayed a strong attacking capability, averaging 1.5 goals per game this season, while their defense has been solid, conceding only 0.9 goals per match. Lokomotiv Plovdiv, on the other hand, has struggled to find consistency, scoring an average of 1.2 goals per game and often relying on their defensive unit to secure points. Key players to watch include Spartak's top scorer and Lokomotiv's playmaker, as both teams will aim to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The match promises to be competitive, with both sides needing points to bolster their league standings.

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Spartak Varna leads 1-0. Win probability: 89.2%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 10.8%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-0. Spartak Varna leads. Win probability: 82.1%. Over 0.5 more goals: 71.6%.

9' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. Spartak Varna win: 80.5%. BTTS: 57.1%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

40%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

32%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	9	5	3	1
1	11	13	5	2
2	10	10	5	1
3	6	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Spartak Varna goals · most likely 1–1 (13.1%)

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Match Result

Home Win

40%

Away Win

32%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

40%

Away Win

32%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

73% Home (No Draw) 27% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

29% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

53% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals 20% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.9%	5.4%	3.2%	1.0%	0.2%
1	10.8%	13.1%	5.5%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.4%	9.7%	4.6%	1.4%	0.3%
3	5.8%	5.5%	2.6%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.4%	2.3%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Spartak Varna	Draw	Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Spartak Varna	35.8%	4.6%	1.5%
Draw	16.7%	17.2%	8.6%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1.9%	3.5%	10.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

50%

1.5

50%

77%

2.5

23%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

19%

32%

27%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

79%

1.5

21%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

39%

37%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Spartak Varna — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
03 Aug	H Lokomotiv Plovdiv	W	1 - 0
26 Jul	A Cherno More Varna	W	0 - 3
17 Jul	H CSKA 1948	W	2 - 0
08 Jul	H Nesebar	D	1 - 1
19 Mar	H Ludogorets	L	1 - 5

Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Aug	A Levski Sofia	L	2 - 0
03 Aug	A Spartak Varna	L	1 - 0
26 Jul	H Septemvri Sofia	W	2 - 1
18 Jul	A Ludogorets	L	1 - 0
08 Jul	A Rilski Sportist	W	0 - 2

First League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Ludogorets	3	3	0	0	5	1	+4	9
3	Spartak Varna	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
4	CSKA 1948	3	2	1	0	6	4	+2	7
5	CSKA Sofia	3	2	1	0	5	3	+2	7
6	Botev Plovdiv	3	1	1	1	4	4	0	4
7	Arda Kardzhali	3	1	1	1	3	3	0	4
8	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	4	1	0	3	2	5	-3	3
9	Lokomotiv Sofia	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2
10	Slavia Sofia	3	0	2	1	1	2	-1	2
11	Botev Vratsa	3	0	1	2	3	5	-2	1
12	Septemvri Sofia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1
13	Cherno More Varna	3	0	1	2	1	5	-4	1
14	Dunav Ruse	3	0	0	3	2	6	-4	0

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Dusan Kosic

1 Milosavljević

5 Pavlov

13 Ryan

4 Chindriş

2 Cova

22 Ivanov

12 Ali

94 Itu

39 Umarbaev

7 Idriz

99 Lamy

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Bojan Milosavljević	G
2	Adrián Cova	D
4	Andrei Chindriş	D
13	Lucas Ryan	D
5	Todor Pavlov	D
12	Efe Ali	M
22	Ivaylo Ivanov	M
7	Sevi Idriz	M
39	Parvizdzhon Umarbaev	M
94	Cătălin Itu	M
99	Julien Lamy	M

Substitutes

6	Miha Trdan	M
29	Christ Longville	F
40	Petar Zovko	G
3	Dalil Ali	D
26	Denis Kirashki	D
44	Milan Petrovic	D
30	Aleksandar Aleksandrov	M
9	Axel Velev	F
31	Yoan Dzhelepov	-

Spartak Varna

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Yasen Petrov

23 Iliev

4 Ivanov

45 Tshitoku

44 Granchov

76 Juan

17 Marinov

8 Yordanov

10 Lopes

82 Silva

77 Ivanov

99 Trifonov

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Plamen Iliev	G
76	David Valverde Juan	M
44	Angel Granchov	D
45	Joey Tshitoku	D
4	Boris Ivanov	D
8	Damian Yordanov	M
17	Tsvetoslav Marinov	M
77	Anton Ivanov	F
82	Tomás Silva	M
10	Jota Lopes	M
99	Georgi Trifonov	F

Substitutes

19	Sámuel Major	M
9	Tsvetelin Chunchukov	F
11	Boubacar Hanne	F
1	Pedro Victor	G
22	Jhonatan Cuero	D
72	Vasco Oliveira	D
7	Buá	M
6	Ricardo Sousa	M
80	Ángel Gomes Arevalo	F