St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City Prediction
FT
Richmond Park, Dublin
AI call
Difficult St Patrick's Athl. win or draw
61%
25%
14%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City prediction: Sportiko gives St Patrick's Athl. a 61% chance of winning, Derry City 14% and the draw 25%. Last updated 2 Aug 2026, 17:56.
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Premium- Home or Away 75%
- 2nd Half Over 0.5 72%
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Timeline
James Brown
Yellow Card
23'
▮
Aidan Keena
Penalty
27'
⚽
1–0
Kian Leavy
Yellow Card
34'
▮
▮
37'
Adam O'Reilly
Yellow Card
HT 1–0
Kian Leavy
⇄ Barry Baggley
46'
⇄
▮
50'
Darragh Burns
Yellow Card
James Brown
⇄ Anto Breslin
64'
⇄
⇄
67'
Michael Duffy
⇄ Barry Cotter
⇄
67'
Conor Barr
⇄ Tyler Smith
⇄
67'
Darragh Burns
⇄ Liam Boyce
⇄
67'
Ellis Chapman
⇄ Patrick McClean
⚽
1–1
72'
James Clarke
Yellow Card
73'
▮
Aidan Keena
⇄ Anthony Olusanya
73'
⇄
⇄
80'
James Clarke
⇄ James Olayinka
Darragh Nugent
⇄ Ryan Sheridan
82'
⇄
Jamie Lennon
Yellow Card
88'
▮
⇄
90+2'
Brandon Fleming
⇄ R. Slevin
FT 1–1
St Patrick's Athl.
Match Stats
Derry City
47%
Ball Possession
53%
1.64
Expected Goals (xG)
0.49
15
Total Shots
11
8
Shots on Goal
7
3
Shots off Goal
2
4
Blocked Shots
2
10
Shots insidebox
6
5
Shots outsidebox
5
3
Corner Kicks
7
3
Offsides
0
16
Fouls
15
3
Yellow Cards
2
Red Cards
5
Goalkeeper Saves
6
388
Total passes
429
299
Passes accurate
350
77%
Passes %
82%
1.09
goals_prevented
1.09
St Patrick's Athl.
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Joe Redmond D | 7.3 | 94' | – | – | – | 67 (52%) | 2 |
| 9 Aidan Keena F | 7.3 | 73' | 1 | – | 3 | 21 (16%) | – |
| 16 Darragh Nugent M | 7.2 | 82' | – | – | 1 | 24 (18%) | 2 |
| 2 Sean Hoare D | 7.0 | 94' | – | – | – | 46 (42%) | – |
| 24 Luke Turner D | 7.0 | 94' | – | – | – | 41 (33%) | 1 |
| 6 Jamie Lennon M | 7.0 | 94' | – | – | 1 | 37 (28%) | 4 |
| 10 Kian Leavy M | 7.0 | 45' | – | – | 1 | 13 (12%) | 2 |
| 27 Ryan Edmondson F | 6.9 | 94' | – | – | 2 | 15 (12%) | 1 |
| 48 Ryan Sheridan M | 6.7 | 12' | – | – | – | 3 (2%) | – |
| 19 Barry Baggley M | 6.6 | 49' | – | – | – | 20 (15%) | 3 |
| 94 Joseph Anang G | 6.5 | 94' | – | – | – | 24 (18%) | – |
| 11 Jason McClelland M | 6.3 | 94' | – | – | – | 23 (13%) | 1 |
| 21 Anthony Olusanya F | 6.3 | 21' | – | – | 1 | 7 (7%) | – |
| 3 Anto Breslin D | 6.2 | 30' | – | – | – | 5 (3%) | – |
| 23 James Brown M | 5.9 | 64' | – | – | 1 | 33 (21%) | 1 |
Derry City
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 B. Maher G | 8.3 | 94' | – | – | – | 37 (29%) | – |
| 15 James Clarke F | 7.3 | 80' | 1 | – | 2 | 20 (17%) | 1 |
| 24 Brooklyn Lyons-Foster D | 6.9 | 94' | – | – | 2 | 37 (28%) | 2 |
| 3 Patrick McClean D | 6.7 | 27' | – | – | – | 10 (10%) | – |
| 27 Liam Boyce F | 6.7 | 27' | – | – | – | 1 | – |
| 2 Barry Cotter D | 6.6 | 27' | – | – | 1 | 4 (1%) | – |
| 22 Conor Barr D | 6.6 | 67' | – | – | – | 41 (36%) | 1 |
| 19 Brandon Fleming D | 6.6 | 92' | – | – | – | 52 (42%) | 2 |
| 8 Adam O'Reilly M | 6.6 | 94' | – | – | 2 | 38 (33%) | 1 |
| 7 Michael Duffy F | 6.6 | 67' | – | – | 1 | 36 (28%) | 1 |
| 17 Nick Twisk M | 6.6 | 94' | – | – | – | 41 (37%) | 2 |
| 28 James Olayinka M | 6.3 | 14' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | 1 |
| 4 Jamie Stott D | 6.3 | 94' | – | – | – | 42 (34%) | 1 |
| 12 Darragh Burns M | 6.3 | 67' | – | – | – | 20 (15%) | 1 |
| 29 Tyler Smith F | 6.3 | 27' | – | – | 1 | 4 (4%) | 1 |
| 14 Ellis Chapman F | 6.2 | 67' | – | – | – | 32 (24%) | – |
| 6 R. Slevin D | — | 2' | – | – | – | – | – |
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Confidence
Medium (61%)
At a glance
Our lean
Difficult St Patrick's Athl. win or draw
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St Patrick's Athl.
WWWDL
Derry City
WDWWD
Last 1 meetings
St Patrick's Athl. · 0W 1D 0L
Match summary
St Patrick's Athletic faces Derry City in a Premier Division clash. St Pat's has shown strong home form, winning 60% of their matches at home this season. Derry City, however, has been resilient on the road, securing points in 50% of their away games. Key player matchups will be crucial, particularly in midfield, where both teams look to dominate possession. Expect a tactical battle that could hinge on set-pieces and defensive organization.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
61%
10%
Draw
25%
45%
Away
14%
45%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
St Patrick's Athl.
R. Edmondson
10 gls
A. Keena
10 gls
K. Leavy
6 gls
Derry City
M. Duffy
10 gls
J. Clarke
6 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City
0
St Patrick's Athl. Wins
1
Draws
0
Derry City Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. | 0 - 0 | Derry City |
St Patrick's Athl. — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Sligo Rovers | W | 0 - 1 |
| 14 Sep | A Dundalk | W | 0 - 4 |
| 11 Sep | H Shamrock Rovers | W | 2 - 0 |
| 05 Sep | H Bohemians | D | 1 - 1 |
| 28 Aug | H Waterford | L | 0 - 2 |
Derry City — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | H Galway United | W | 1 - 0 |
| 14 Sep | A Waterford | D | 2 - 2 |
| 11 Sep | A Shelbourne | W | 0 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | H Dundalk | W | 4 - 2 |
| 30 Aug | H Shamrock Rovers | D | 3 - 3 |
Premier Division Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
St Patrick's Athl.
|
32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 2 |
Shamrock Rovers
|
31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 3 |
Bohemians
|
31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 4 |
Derry City
|
32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 5 |
Dundalk
|
32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 6 |
Shelbourne
|
31 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 39 |
| 7 |
Galway United
|
31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 37 |
| 8 |
Waterford
|
32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 |
Drogheda United
|
32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 |
Sligo Rovers
|
32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
Derry City
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Tiernan Lynch
1
Maher
19
Fleming
4
Stott
22
Barr
24
Lyons-Foster
17
Twisk
12
Burns
8
O'Reilly
7
Duffy
15
Clarke
14
Chapman
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Maher | G |
| 24 | Brooklyn Lyons-Foster | D |
| 22 | Conor Barr | D |
| 4 | Jamie Stott | D |
| 19 | Brandon Fleming | D |
| 8 | Adam O'Reilly | M |
| 12 | Darragh Burns | M |
| 17 | Nick Twisk | M |
| 14 | Ellis Chapman | F |
| 15 | James Clarke | F |
| 7 | Michael Duffy | F |
Substitutes
| 3 | Patrick McClean | D |
| 2 | Barry Cotter | D |
| 27 | Liam Boyce | F |
| 29 | Tyler Smith | F |
| 13 | Tom Norcott | G |
| 23 | Cameron Dummigan | D |
| 6 | Robert Slevin | D |
| 28 | James Olayinka | M |
| 32 | Terence Doherty | F |
St Patrick's Athl.
Formation: 3-5-2
Coach: Stephen Kenny
94
Anang
24
Turner
2
Hoare
4
Redmond
11
McClelland
16
Nugent
10
Leavy
6
Lennon
23
Brown
9
Keena
27
Edmondson
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 94 | Joseph Anang | G |
| 4 | Joe Redmond | D |
| 2 | Sean Hoare | D |
| 24 | Luke Turner | D |
| 23 | James Brown | M |
| 6 | Jamie Lennon | M |
| 10 | Kian Leavy | M |
| 16 | Darragh Nugent | M |
| 11 | Jason McClelland | M |
| 27 | Ryan Edmondson | F |
| 9 | Aidan Keena | F |
Substitutes
| 19 | Barry Baggley | M |
| 3 | Anto Breslin | D |
| 21 | Anthony Olusanya | F |
| 1 | Danny Rogers | G |
| 33 | Sean McHale | D |
| 32 | Billy Canny | D |
| 37 | Joe Byrne | M |
| 48 | Ryan Sheridan | M |
| 35 | Sam Rooney | F |