ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock Prediction
FT
McDiarmid Park, Perth
AI call
ST Johnstone or draw
37%
29%
34%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock prediction: Sportiko gives ST Johnstone a 37% chance of winning, Kilmarnock 34% and the draw 29%. Last updated 2 Aug 2026, 14:58.
Premium picks
Premium- 2nd Half Over 0.5 76%
- Away to Score 75%
- Under 3.5 Goals 75%
- 1st Half Home or Draw 74%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off.
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Timeline
Josh Fowler
assist: Jamie Gullan
16'
⚽
1–0
▮
21'
Tyreece John-Jules
Yellow Card
⚽
1–1
37'
Greg Kiltie
assist: Tom Lowery
⇄
45+2'
Tyreece John-Jules
⇄ Jamie Brandon
Liam Smith
Yellow Card
45+4'
▮
HT 1–1
Cheick Diabate
assist: Jamie Gullan
47'
⚽
2–1
⚽
2–2
49'
Joe Hugill
Cheick Diabate
Yellow Card
52'
▮
⚽
2–3
53'
Jason Holt
Own Goal
⇄
59'
Aaron Tshibola
⇄ Bailey Rice
⇄
59'
Nicky Cleșcenco
⇄ Roshaun Mathurin
Jason Holt
⇄ Logan Chalmers
61'
⇄
Ruari Paton
⇄ Kai Fotheringham
61'
⇄
⇄
66'
Erik Ring
Michael Schjønning-Larsen
Own Goal
69'
⚽
3–3
Reece McAlear
69'
⇄
Kai Fotheringham
assist: Josh Fowler
80'
⚽
4–3
▮
83'
Jamie Brandon
Yellow Card
Josh Fowler
⇄ Macaulay Tait
84'
⇄
Jamie Gullan
⇄ Jack Baird
85'
⇄
⇄
85'
Greg Kiltie
⇄ Ieuan Owen
FT 4–3
ST Johnstone
Match Stats
Kilmarnock
56%
Ball Possession
44%
1.76
Expected Goals (xG)
0.69
15
Total Shots
7
5
Shots on Goal
5
7
Shots off Goal
2
3
Blocked Shots
0
10
Shots insidebox
6
5
Shots outsidebox
1
6
Corner Kicks
3
1
Offsides
0
5
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
2
Red Cards
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
526
Total passes
410
444
Passes accurate
327
84%
Passes %
80%
-1.06
goals_prevented
-1.06
ST Johnstone
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jamie Gullan M | 8.3 | 85' | – | 2 | 3 | 36 (30%) | 2 |
| 9 Josh Fowler F | 8.3 | 84' | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 (17%) | – |
| 18 Kai Fotheringham F | 7.9 | 33' | 1 | – | 2 | 14 (11%) | – |
| 3 Cheick Diabate D | 7.6 | 94' | 1 | – | 1 | 86 (81%) | – |
| 8 Jason Holt M | 7.0 | 61' | – | – | – | 39 (37%) | 1 |
| 5 Zach Mitchell D | 6.7 | 94' | – | – | – | 59 (49%) | – |
| 14 Matty Foulds D | 6.7 | 94' | – | – | – | 66 (56%) | 4 |
| 99 Ruari Paton M | 6.6 | 61' | – | – | 1 | 24 (20%) | 1 |
| 15 Jack Baird D | 6.6 | 9' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 25 Macaulay Tait M | 6.5 | 10' | – | – | – | 1 | – |
| 11 Sam Stanton M | 6.5 | 94' | – | – | 2 | 29 (24%) | 2 |
| 23 Logan Chalmers M | 6.5 | 33' | – | – | 1 | 14 (11%) | 3 |
| 1 Toby Steward G | 6.3 | 94' | – | – | – | 43 (29%) | – |
| 33 Liam Smith D | 6.3 | 94' | – | – | 1 | 39 (33%) | 3 |
| 42 Reece McAlear M | 6.3 | 69' | – | – | – | 49 (41%) | 3 |
| 17 Seamus Maughan F | 6.2 | 25' | – | – | – | 5 (4%) | – |
Kilmarnock
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Joe Hugill F | 7.6 | 94' | 1 | – | 2 | 9 (8%) | – |
| 11 Greg Kiltie M | 7.2 | 85' | 1 | – | 2 | 24 (20%) | 2 |
| 18 Tom Lowery M | 6.9 | 94' | – | 1 | – | 57 (53%) | – |
| 5 Mark O'Hara M | 6.9 | 28' | – | – | – | 9 (6%) | – |
| 1 Max Stryjek G | 6.7 | 94' | – | – | – | 41 (25%) | – |
| 49 Bailey Rice M | 6.6 | 35' | – | – | 1 | 23 (16%) | 2 |
| 14 George Stanger D | 6.5 | 94' | – | – | 1 | 55 (45%) | 1 |
| 23 Roshaun Mathurin F | 6.3 | 35' | – | – | – | 7 (5%) | 2 |
| 27 Ieuan Owen F | 6.3 | 9' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 2 Jamie Brandon D | 6.2 | 47' | – | – | – | 19 (16%) | 1 |
| 20 Nicky Cleșcenco M | 6.2 | 59' | – | – | 1 | 13 (10%) | 2 |
| 8 Erik Ring D | 6.0 | 66' | – | – | – | 16 (12%) | 2 |
| 36 Aaron Tshibola M | 5.9 | 59' | – | – | – | 39 (32%) | – |
| 25 Ethan Brown D | 5.9 | 94' | – | – | – | 50 (42%) | 1 |
| 10 Tyreece John-Jules F | 5.9 | 47' | – | – | – | 10 (6%) | 1 |
| 21 Michael Schjønning-Larsen D | 5.2 | 94' | – | – | – | 36 (30%) | – |
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Confidence
Low (37%)
At a glance
Our lean
ST Johnstone or draw
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ST Johnstone
DLWDL
Kilmarnock
DWDDL
Last 3 meetings
ST Johnstone · 1W 0D 2L
Match summary
In the upcoming Premiership clash, St Johnstone will host Kilmarnock in a tightly contested match. St Johnstone's recent form has shown vulnerability at the back, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match over the last five fixtures. Conversely, Kilmarnock has demonstrated a more robust defense, allowing only 1 goal per match during the same period. Both teams will aim to capitalize on scoring opportunities, but Kilmarnock's disciplined defensive structure may provide them with an edge. This matchup will be crucial for both teams as they seek to gain momentum in the league.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
37%
10%
Draw
29%
45%
Away
34%
45%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
ST Johnstone
J. Fowler
4 gls
Kilmarnock
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
1
ST Johnstone Wins
0
Draws
2
Kilmarnock Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May 2025 | ST Johnstone | 0 - 2 | Kilmarnock |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Kilmarnock | 3 - 1 | ST Johnstone |
| 23 Nov 2024 | ST Johnstone | 1 - 0 | Kilmarnock |
ST Johnstone — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Falkirk | D | 1 - 1 |
| 09 Sep | H Celtic | L | 0 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | H Hibernian | W | 2 - 1 |
| 02 Sep | A Dundee | D | 1 - 1 |
| 29 Aug | A Heart Of Midlothian | L | 2 - 1 |
Kilmarnock — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Heart Of Midlothian | D | 1 - 1 |
| 15 Sep | A Hibernian | W | 0 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | H Aberdeen | D | 1 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | A Aberdeen | D | 0 - 0 |
| 02 Sep | H ST Mirren | L | 0 - 1 |
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Celtic
|
7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 |
Rangers
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 3 |
Heart Of Midlothian
|
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 |
Dundee
|
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 5 |
ST Mirren
|
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 |
ST Johnstone
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 |
Aberdeen
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 |
Dundee Utd
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 |
Motherwell
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 |
Hibernian
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 |
Falkirk
|
7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 |
Kilmarnock
|
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
Kilmarnock
Formation: 4-4-1-1
Coach: Neil McCann
1
Stryjek
21
Schjønning-Larsen
14
Stanger
25
Brown
8
Ring
20
Cleșcenco
18
Lowery
36
Tshibola
11
Kiltie
10
John-Jules
9
Hugill
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Stryjek | G |
| 8 | Erik Ring | D |
| 25 | Ethan Brown | D |
| 14 | George Stanger | D |
| 21 | Michael Schjønning-Larsen | D |
| 11 | Greg Kiltie | M |
| 36 | Aaron Tshibola | M |
| 18 | Tom Lowery | M |
| 20 | Nicky Cleșcenco | M |
| 10 | Tyreece John-Jules | F |
| 9 | Joe Hugill | F |
Substitutes
| 2 | Jamie Brandon | D |
| 49 | Bailey Rice | M |
| 23 | Roshaun Mathurin | F |
| 5 | Mark O'Hara | M |
| 12 | Calum Ferrie | G |
| 39 | Euan Bowie | D |
| 15 | Johnly Yfeko | D |
| 7 | Rory McKenzie | M |
| 27 | Ieuan Owen | F |
ST Johnstone
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Simo Valakari
1
Steward
14
Foulds
3
Diabate
5
Mitchell
33
Smith
8
Holt
42
McAlear
99
Paton
10
Gullan
11
Stanton
9
Fowler
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toby Steward | G |
| 33 | Liam Smith | D |
| 5 | Zach Mitchell | D |
| 3 | Cheick Diabate | D |
| 14 | Matty Foulds | D |
| 42 | Reece McAlear | M |
| 8 | Jason Holt | M |
| 11 | Sam Stanton | M |
| 10 | Jamie Gullan | M |
| 99 | Ruari Paton | M |
| 9 | Josh Fowler | F |
Substitutes
| 23 | Logan Chalmers | M |
| 18 | Kai Fotheringham | F |
| 17 | Louis LLoyd | F |
| 20 | Ross Sinclair | G |
| 15 | Jack Baird | D |
| 4 | Morgan Boyes | D |
| 19 | Danny Finlayson | D |
| 7 | Taylor Steven | F |
| 25 | Macaulay Tait | M |