Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna Prediction

First League · Regular Season - 3

Post on X

Cherno More Varna

Away

Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv

AI call Difficult Botev Plovdiv win or draw

55%

27%

18%

Home Win · 1.93 Draw · 3.79 Away Win · 4.33

Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna prediction: Sportiko gives Botev Plovdiv a 55% chance of winning, Cherno More Varna 18% and the draw 27%. Last updated 1 Aug 2026, 20:09.

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Home or Away 73% @ 1.30

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Timeline

Yellow Card

15' ▮

Penalty

24' ⚽ 1–0

24' ⇄

▮ 35'

Yellow Card

HT 1–0

46' ⇄

▮ 58'

Yellow Card

⇄ 60'

61' ⇄

▮ 62'

Yellow Card

64' ▮

⇄ 72'

⇄ 76'

83' ⇄

Yellow Card

90+2' ▮

FT 1–0

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Botev Plovdiv win or draw

Most likely score

1:0 · 18.6%

Both teams to score

33%

Over 2.5 goals

33%

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Botev Plovdiv

WLDLW

Cherno More Varna

LLDDD

Match summary

Botev Plovdiv will face Cherno More Varna in a First League clash. Botev has shown solid form, with a strong home record in recent seasons, while Cherno More has struggled for consistency, particularly in away matches. Key players for Botev include their top scorer, who has netted in multiple consecutive games, while Cherno More will rely on their midfield to control possession and create chances. The match could be pivotal for both teams as they aim to solidify their standings early in the season. Tactical flexibility will be crucial, especially if Cherno More seeks to exploit any defensive vulnerabilities.

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Botev Plovdiv leads 1-0. Win probability: 93.8%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 6.2%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-0. Botev Plovdiv leads. Win probability: 89.5%. Over 0.5 more goals: 63.2%.

25' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. Botev Plovdiv win: 89%. BTTS: 30.8%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

55%

45%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

18%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Cherno More Varna goals →

	0	1	2
0	14	5	2
1	19	11	3
2	15	8	2
3	8	4	1
4	3	2
5	1

↑ Botev Plovdiv goals · most likely 1–0 (18.6%)

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Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

27%

Away Win

18%

Both Teams To Score

67% BTTS No 33% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

38%

1.5

62%

67%

2.5

33%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

27%

Away Win

18%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

85% Home (No Draw) 15% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

34% Home Win by 2+ 3% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

61% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 11% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

38%

1.5

62%

67%

2.5

33%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

67% BTTS No 33% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

24%

29%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	14.3%	5.3%	1.7%	0.3%	0.0%
1	18.6%	11.5%	2.6%	0.4%	0.1%
2	15.3%	7.8%	2.0%	0.3%	0.0%
3	7.9%	4.0%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%
4	3.0%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

77%

1.5

23%

94%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

42%

35%

17%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

32%

34%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Botev Plovdiv	Draw	Cherno More Varna
Botev Plovdiv	37.7%	2.8%	0.5%
Draw	23.2%	20.5%	5.3%
Cherno More Varna	1.6%	2.8%	5.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

22%

33%

26%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

78%

1.5

22%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

60%

31%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

80%

0.5

20%

98%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

75%

0.5

25%

97%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Botev Plovdiv — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Cherno More Varna	W	1 - 0
27 Jul	A CSKA Sofia	L	3 - 2
21 Jul	H Lokomotiv Sofia	D	1 - 1
04 Jul	H Etar Veliko Tarnovo	L	1 - 2
01 Jul	H Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	W	4 - 0

Cherno More Varna — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Botev Plovdiv	L	1 - 0
26 Jul	H Spartak Varna	L	0 - 3
19 Jul	A Botev Vratsa	D	1 - 1
08 Jul	H Dobrudzha	D	2 - 2
01 Jul	H Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	D	0 - 0

First League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Ludogorets	3	3	0	0	5	1	+4	9
3	Spartak Varna	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
4	CSKA 1948	3	2	1	0	6	4	+2	7
5	CSKA Sofia	3	2	1	0	5	3	+2	7
6	Botev Plovdiv	3	1	1	1	4	4	0	4
7	Arda Kardzhali	3	1	1	1	3	3	0	4
8	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	4	1	0	3	2	5	-3	3
9	Lokomotiv Sofia	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2
10	Slavia Sofia	3	0	2	1	1	2	-1	2
11	Botev Vratsa	3	0	1	2	3	5	-2	1
12	Septemvri Sofia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1
13	Cherno More Varna	3	0	1	2	1	5	-4	1
14	Dunav Ruse	3	0	0	3	2	6	-4	0

Botev Plovdiv

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Stanislav Genchev

29 Naumov

27 Hein

6 Videv

87 Petrov

82 Mendes

77 Araujo

14 López

90 Kalu

10 Chandarov

66 Meotti

9 Okoh

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
29	Daniel Naumov	G
82	Vladimir Mendes	D
87	Simeon Petrov	D
6	Ivaylo Videv	D
27	Bryan-Anthony Chibuike Hein	D
14	Carlos Algarra López	M
77	Lucas Araujo	M
66	Carlos Meotti	M
10	Asen Chandarov	M
90	Samuel Kalu	M
9	Chidera Micheal Okoh	F

Substitutes

19	Mauro Rodrigues	M
4	Nikola Soldo	D
21	Nikolay Prandzhev	G
15	Bogdan Kostov	D
22	Marvin Senger	D
16	Veliyan Vidolov	M
7	Nikola Iliev	M
23	Dimitar Tonev	M
45	Edson Silva	M
88	Williams Chimezie Oluebube	F
30	Franklin Mascote	F

Cherno More Varna

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Ilian Iliev

81 Tomov

10 Sidney

5 Squadrone

3 Atanasov

50 Tombak

24 Teles

71 Panayotov

13 Nyagolov

11 Achi

7 Barandas

20 Kolev

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
81	Kristian Tomov	G
50	Ertan Tombak	D
3	Zhivko Atanasov	D
5	Luciano Squadrone	D
10	Celso Sidney	F
71	Vasil Panayotov	M
24	David Teles	M
7	Miguel Barandas	F
11	Mohamed Achi	M
13	Emanuil Nyagolov	D
20	Aleksandar Kolev	F

Substitutes

39	Nikolay Zlatev	M
70	Antoan Manasiev	G
37	Ventsislav Kerchev	D
26	João Bandaro	D
93	Georgi Ventsislavov	D
29	Berk Beyhan	M
18	Petar Andreev	M
14	Aleksandar Todorov	M
22	Nikolay Petrov Kostadinov	M
99	Idris Bounaas	M
19	Georgi Lazarov	F