Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau Prediction

Challenge League · Regular Season - 1

Post on X

FC Aarau

Away

Stade de la Fontenette, Carouge

AI call FC Aarau or draw

31%

25%

43%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau prediction: Sportiko gives Étoile Carouge a 31% chance of winning, FC Aarau 43% and the draw 25%. Last updated 24 Jul 2026, 20:06.

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Away to Score 75%
1st Half Home or Draw 73%

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Timeline

Yellow Card

30' ▮

HT 0–0

Yellow Card

46' ▮

52' ⚽ 1–0

Yellow Card

59' ▮

Yellow Card

60' ▮

⇄ 63'

67' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 72'

73' ⇄

Own Goal

78' ⚽ 3–0

⇄ 85'

87' ⇄

90+1' ⇄

FT 3–0

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Confidence Low (43%)

At a glance

Our lean

FC Aarau or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13%

Both teams to score

60%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

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Étoile Carouge

LLDLW

FC Aarau

LDWDW

Last 1 meetings Étoile Carouge · 0W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Challenge League match, Étoile Carouge will face FC Aarau. Étoile Carouge has shown a strong attacking form, averaging 1.8 goals per match this season, while FC Aarau's defense has conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game. Both teams have been inconsistent, but Carouge's home attack could pose challenges for Aarau's defensive line. The outcome may hinge on how well Aarau's defense can handle Carouge's forward threats. Overall, expect a competitive match with potential for goals on both sides.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FC Aarau goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	6	5	2	1
1	7	13	8	4	1
2	6	9	6	3	1
3	3	4	3	1	1
4	1	2	1	1
5		1

↑ Étoile Carouge goals · most likely 1–1 (13.0%)

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Match Result

Away Win

43%

Home Win

31%

Draw

25%

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS Yes 40% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

44%

2.5

56%

67%

3.5

33%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

43%

Home Win

31%

Draw

25%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

54% Home (No Draw) 46% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Home Win by 2+ 16% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

39% Home Scores More 33% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

44%

2.5

56%

67%

3.5

33%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS Yes 40% BTTS No

Exact Goals

13%

25%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.9%	6.0%	5.3%	2.5%	0.9%
1	6.7%	13.0%	8.1%	3.8%	1.3%
2	6.3%	8.8%	6.2%	2.9%	1.0%
3	3.2%	4.5%	3.2%	1.5%	0.5%
4	1.2%	1.7%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

51%

1.5

49%

78%

2.5

22%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

29%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Étoile Carouge	Draw	FC Aarau
Étoile Carouge	23.7%	4.7%	2.2%
Draw	14.0%	16.5%	12.3%
FC Aarau	2.4%	4.6%	19.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

22%

33%

25%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau

0 Étoile Carouge Wins

0 Draws

1 FC Aarau Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
06 Mar 2026	Étoile Carouge	0 - 3	FC Aarau

Étoile Carouge — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A SC Kriens	L	4 - 1
11 Sep	H FC Winterthur	L	0 - 1
04 Sep	H FC WIL 1900	D	1 - 1
01 Sep	A Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	L	3 - 0
28 Aug	H Rapperswil	W	2 - 1

FC Aarau — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A FC Winterthur	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	H SC Kriens	D	2 - 2
04 Sep	H Rapperswil	W	3 - 2
31 Aug	A FC WIL 1900	D	2 - 2
28 Aug	H Neuchatel Xamax FC	W	2 - 1

Challenge League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	9	6	3	0	17	3	+14	21
2	FC Winterthur	9	5	3	1	19	8	+11	18
3	Yverdon Sport	9	4	4	1	14	9	+5	16
4	SC Kriens	9	4	2	3	16	11	+5	14
5	FC Aarau	9	3	3	3	14	16	-2	12
6	Neuchatel Xamax FC	9	4	0	5	12	17	-5	12
7	Rapperswil	9	3	1	5	15	16	-1	10
8	Étoile Carouge	9	2	3	4	8	12	-4	9
9	FC WIL 1900	9	2	3	4	15	21	-6	9
10	Stade Nyonnais	9	0	2	7	6	23	-17	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.