Derry City vs HNK Rijeka Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

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Derry City

Home

0 : 1

HT 0 - 1

1st leg 0-1 · Aggregate 0-2

HNK Rijeka

Away

AI call Difficult HNK Rijeka win or draw

19%

26%

55%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Derry City vs HNK Rijeka prediction: Sportiko gives Derry City a 19% chance of winning, HNK Rijeka 55% and the draw 26%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 19:23.

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Under 3.5 Goals 75%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 14'

Daniel Adu-Adjei

Yellow Card

29' ▮

HT 0–1

Brooklyn Lyons-Foster Yellow Card

46' ▮

Liam Boyce ⇄ James Clarke

46' ⇄

James Olayinka

62' ⇄

Brooklyn Lyons-Foster ⇄ Barry Cotter

62' ⇄

▮ 65'

Ante Majstorović Yellow Card

Cameron Dummigan Yellow Card

69' ▮

Patrick McClean

81' ⇄

⇄ 81'

⇄ Justas Lasickas

⇄ 89'

Toni Fruk

⇄ 90+2'

Daniel Adu-Adjei

Barry Cotter Yellow Card

90+3' ▮

FT 0–1

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult HNK Rijeka win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.3%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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Derry City

WDWWD

HNK Rijeka

WWDWD

Last 1 meetings Derry City · 0W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the UEFA Europa Conference League clash, Derry City faces HNK Rijeka. Derry City has shown resilience in their domestic league, with a robust home record, while Rijeka comes into the match with a solid European pedigree and strong away performances. Key players to watch include Derry's leading goal scorer, who has been pivotal in recent matches, and Rijeka's midfield general, known for controlling the tempo. Both teams will aim to capitalize on any defensive lapses, making it crucial for their back lines to remain organized. This matchup promises a competitive battle, with tactics likely playing a significant role.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

HNK Rijeka goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	11	10	6	2	1
1	6	13	10	5	2	1
2	3	5	4	2	1
3	1	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Derry City goals · most likely 1–1 (13.3%)

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Match Result

Away Win

55%

Draw

26%

Home Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

55%

Draw

26%

Home Win

19%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

73% Away (No Draw) 27% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

29% Away Win by 2+ 7% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

52% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals 20% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.4%	11.3%	10.5%	5.7%	2.3%
1	5.7%	13.3%	9.6%	5.2%	2.1%
2	3.3%	5.4%	4.4%	2.4%	1.0%
3	1.0%	1.7%	1.4%	0.7%	0.3%
4	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

54%

1.5

46%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

31%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Derry City	Draw	HNK Rijeka
Derry City	10.9%	4.1%	2.6%
Draw	8.5%	18.0%	20.5%
HNK Rijeka	1.2%	3.7%	30.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

93%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

40%

37%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Derry City vs HNK Rijeka

0 Derry City Wins

0 Draws

1 HNK Rijeka Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
23 Jul 2026	HNK Rijeka	1 - 0	Derry City

Derry City — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Galway United	W	1 - 0
14 Sep	A Waterford	D	2 - 2
11 Sep	A Shelbourne	W	0 - 1
06 Sep	H Dundalk	W	4 - 2
30 Aug	H Shamrock Rovers	D	3 - 3

HNK Rijeka — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H HNK Hajduk Split	W	3 - 0
16 Sep	A Vrbovec	W	0 - 6
12 Sep	A NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	D	1 - 1
05 Sep	H NK Osijek	W	4 - 1
31 Aug	A HNK Gorica	D	0 - 0

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

HNK Rijeka

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Matjaz Kek

99 Todorović

34 Devetak

5 Barco

45 Majstorović

22 Oreč

10 Fruk

26 Dantas

6 Pavić

4 Janković

18 Adu-Adjei

14 Gojak

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
99	Aleksa Todorović	G
22	Ante Oreč	D
45	Ante Majstorović	D
5	Alfonso Barco	M
34	Mladen Devetak	D
6	Branko Pavić	M
26	Tiago Dantas	M
10	Toni Fruk	M
14	Amer Gojak	M
18	Daniel Adu-Adjei	F
4	Niko Janković	M

Substitutes

31	Dávid Nwolokor	G
1	Vito Kovač	G
3	Moreno Živković	D
23	Justas Lasickas	D
91	Noel Bodetić	D
51	Anel Husić	D
16	Viktor Vešligaj	D
8	Ivan Ćubelić	M
11	Gabriel Rukavina	M
19	Samuele Vignato	M
15	Goran Grulović	F
37	Cherno Saho	F

Derry City

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Tiernan Lynch

1 Maher

19 Fleming

3 McClean

23 Dummigan

24 Lyons-Foster

17 Twisk

28 Olayinka

7 Duffy

14 Chapman

8 O'Reilly

27 Boyce

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Brian Maher	G
24	Brooklyn Lyons-Foster	D
23	Cameron Dummigan	D
3	Patrick McClean	D
19	Brandon Fleming	M
28	James Olayinka	M
17	Nick Twisk	M
8	Adam O'Reilly	M
14	Ellis Chapman	M
7	Michael Duffy	M
27	Liam Boyce	F

Substitutes

13	Tom Norcott	G
4	Jamie Stott	D
6	Robert Slevin	D
22	Conor Barr	D
2	Barry Cotter	M
12	Darragh Burns	M
15	James Clarke	M
32	Terence Doherty	F