Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

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Dinamo Minsk

Home

0 : 1

HT 0 - 1

1st leg 4-2 · Aggregate 4-3

Neftchi Baku

Away

AI call Too close to call

36%

28%

36%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku prediction: Sportiko gives Dinamo Minsk a 36% chance of winning, Neftchi Baku 36% and the draw 28%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 18:55.

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1st Half Over 0.5 72%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 12'

Yellow Card

24' ▮

▮ 30'

Yellow Card

HT 0–1

⇄ 58'

66' ⇄

⇄ 74'

83' ⇄

⇄ 86'

Yellow Card

88' ▮

90+1' ⇄

▮ 90+4'

Red Card

FT 0–1

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Confidence Low (36%)

At a glance

Our lean

Too close to call

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.3%

Both teams to score

58%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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Dinamo Minsk

WLDWL

Neftchi Baku

WWWLW

Last 1 meetings Dinamo Minsk · 1W 0D 0L

Match summary

In the UEFA Europa Conference League clash, Dinamo Minsk faces Neftchi Baku with both teams seeking to make a strong statement. Dinamo Minsk has shown resilience in previous matches, boasting a solid home record, while Neftchi Baku has displayed a potent attacking style, particularly in away fixtures. Key players to watch include Minsk's top scorer and Neftchi's playmaker, who have been instrumental in their respective teams' successes. The match should be competitive, with both sides looking to capitalize on any defensive lapses. Expect a tactical battle with potential for late drama as both teams push for crucial points.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

36%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

36%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Neftchi Baku goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	6	5	2	1
1	8	13	7	3	1
2	7	9	6	2	1
3	4	5	3	1
4	1	2	1
5		1

↑ Dinamo Minsk goals · most likely 1–1 (13.3%)

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Match Result

Home Win

36%

Away Win

36%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS Yes 42% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

36%

Away Win

36%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

59% Home (No Draw) 41% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

22% Home Win by 2+ 13% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

43% Home Scores More 29% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS Yes 42% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

22%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5%	6.0%	4.8%	2.0%	0.6%
1	7.8%	13.3%	7.4%	3.1%	1.0%
2	7.3%	9.2%	5.8%	2.4%	0.8%
3	3.8%	4.8%	3.0%	1.3%	0.4%
4	1.5%	1.9%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

54%

1.5

46%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Dinamo Minsk	Draw	Neftchi Baku
Dinamo Minsk	24.0%	3.6%	1.3%
Draw	16.7%	16.8%	9.4%
Neftchi Baku	3.2%	5.6%	19.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

77%

1.5

23%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Dinamo Minsk vs Neftchi Baku

1 Dinamo Minsk Wins

0 Draws

0 Neftchi Baku Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
22 Jul 2026	Neftchi Baku	2 - 4	Dinamo Minsk

Dinamo Minsk — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Bate Borisov	W	2 - 0
13 Sep	H Dinamo Brest	L	0 - 1
06 Sep	A ML Vitebsk	D	0 - 0
02 Sep	H Naftan	W	5 - 1
29 Aug	H Baranovichi	L	0 - 1

Neftchi Baku — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Qabala	W	0 - 3
11 Sep	A Mil-Muğan	W	2 - 3
05 Sep	H Safa Baku	W	4 - 1
30 Aug	A Zira	L	1 - 0
23 Aug	H Araz	W	5 - 0

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Neftchi Baku

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Yuri Vernidub

1 Balayev

3 Abbasov

17 Khachayev

55 Gravillon

77 Sacko

8 Mahmudov

18 Mathew

20 Klismahn

11 Faraj

29 Tupta

33 Almeida

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Emil Balayev	G
77	Falaye Sacko	D
55	Andreaw Gravillon	D
17	Murad Khachayev	D
3	Rüfat Abbasov	M
20	Gustavo Klismahn	M
18	Ifeanyi Mathew	M
8	Emin Mahmudov	M
33	Breno Almeida	M
29	Lubomir Tupta	F
11	Imad Faraj	M

Substitutes

97	Bassala Sambou	F
93	Rza Cəfərov	G
13	Kenan Pirić	G
82	Mahammad Mammadli	D
14	Elvin Badalov	D
24	Moustapha Seck	D
5	Igor	D
6	Sessi D'Almeida	M
7	Emil Safarov	M
4	Elvin Camalov	M
19	Agadadas Salyanskiy	F

Dinamo Minsk

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Aleksandr Shagoyko

1 Shimakovich

25 Toure

26 Kalinin

12 Ivanov

44 Gurban

42 Abdullahi

78 Sokolovskiy

8 Selyava

7 Malashevich

10 Vardanyan

30 Djimet

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Ivan Shimakovich	G
44	Gleb Gurban	D
12	Aleksey Ivanov	D
26	Vladislav Kalinin	D
25	Abdoul Aziz Toure	D
8	Aleksandr Selyava	M
78	Artem Sokolovskiy	M
42	Fawaz Abdullahi	M
30	Moustapha Djimet	F
10	Karen Vardanyan	F
7	Yevgeniy Malashevich	M

Substitutes

23	Aleksey Zhechko	M
80	Leonard Chatelin Gweth	F
21	Danila Radkevich	G
67	Roman Begunov	D
27	Mikhail Aleksandrov	D
3	Maksim Shvetsov	D
24	Aleksey Vakulich	D
5	Daniil Dushevskiy	M
19	Rayan-Elie Guibero	M
13	Vladislav Poloz	M
11	Gulzhigit Alykulov	M
9	Andrei Lutskovich	F