Lech Poznan vs Aarhus Prediction
Lech Poznan vs Aarhus prediction: Sportiko gives Lech Poznan a 48% chance of winning, Aarhus 26% and the draw 26%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 09:01.
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Match Report
Aarhus produced a commanding performance in Poznan to advance in the UEFA Champions League second qualifying round, winning 4–1 after extra time and a penalty shootout. Tobias Bech broke the deadlock on 32 minutes to give the Danish side a deserved half-time lead, with Lech finishing the first half a man down in discipline terms after yellow cards for Kozubal and Bogere either side of the interval.
The visitors tightened their grip after the break, with Arnstad converting a penalty on 55 minutes before Tingager added a third on 75 minutes. Lech refused to fold entirely, with Filip Jagiełło pulling one back in the 95th minute to set up a tense finale, and Kristjánsson restored the two-goal cushion five minutes later. The match stretched to a penalty shootout, where Aarhus held their nerve — Lech missed three spot-kicks through Arnstad, Sayyadmanesh and Kozubal, while Tingager, Kristjánsson, Agnero, Serra, Pereira and Bech all converted for the visitors.
Aarhus dominated set-piece opportunities throughout, earning 14 corners to Lech's three. Our pre-match AI model had backed a Lech win as the most likely outcome at 48%, a call that proved well wide of the mark.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Lech Poznan
Match Stats
Lech Poznan
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Patrik Wålemark M | 7.9 | 87' | – | – | 2 | 20 (16%) | – |
| 24 Filip Jagiełło M | 7.9 | 39' | 1 | – | 1 | 16 (11%) | – |
| 2 Joel Pereira D | 7.3 | 39' | – | – | – | 19 (16%) | 3 |
| 17 Allahyar Sayyadmanesh M | 7.3 | 52' | – | – | 1 | 19 (13%) | 2 |
| 11 Daniel Håkans M | 6.7 | 33' | – | – | 1 | 7 (6%) | 1 |
| 22 Radosław Murawski M | 6.6 | 98' | – | – | – | 51 (44%) | 4 |
| 7 Yannick Agnero F | 6.6 | 32' | – | – | 1 | 10 (6%) | – |
| 21 Pablo Rodríguez M | 6.5 | 81' | – | – | 1 | 13 (10%) | – |
| 9 Mikael Ishak F | 6.5 | 88' | – | – | 2 | 14 (13%) | – |
| 43 Antoni Kozubal M | 6.3 | 120' | – | – | – | 44 (38%) | – |
| 77 Luis Palma M | 6.3 | 68' | – | – | 3 | 15 (9%) | – |
| 23 Gisli Thordarson M | 6.3 | 22' | – | – | 1 | 7 (7%) | – |
| 27 Wojciech Mońka D | 6.2 | 120' | – | – | – | 58 (51%) | 3 |
| 15 Michal Gurgul D | 6.2 | 120' | – | – | 1 | 51 (37%) | 2 |
| 59 Terry Yegbe D | 5.9 | 120' | – | – | – | 57 (48%) | – |
| 20 Robert Gumny D | 5.9 | 81' | – | – | – | 21 (16%) | 1 |
| 1 Mateusz Lis G | 5.6 | 120' | – | – | – | 34 (18%) | – |
Aarhus
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Frederik Tingager D | 8.9 | 120' | 1 | – | 1 | 73 (63%) | 1 |
| 21 Mads Hedenstad G | 8.5 | 120' | – | – | – | 40 (24%) | – |
| 19 Eric Kahl D | 7.9 | 89' | – | 1 | – | 69 (60%) | 4 |
| 31 Tobias Bech F | 7.9 | 120' | 1 | 1 | 1 | 27 (23%) | – |
| 20 Tómas Óli Kristjánsson F | 7.7 | 23' | 1 | – | 1 | 8 (7%) | – |
| 10 Kristian Arnstad F | 7.2 | 120' | 1 | 1 | 2 | 43 (29%) | 2 |
| 4 Magnus Knudsen M | 6.9 | 120' | – | – | – | 37 (33%) | 2 |
| 39 Frederik Emmery M | 6.9 | 97' | – | – | 1 | 27 (23%) | – |
| 16 Jens Jønsson M | 6.9 | 70' | – | – | – | 28 (21%) | – |
| 29 R. Carstensen D | 6.9 | 50' | – | – | 1 | 16 (11%) | – |
| 40 Jonas Jensen-Abbew D | 6.7 | 60' | – | – | – | 21 (18%) | 1 |
| 44 Mouhammade Camara D | 6.6 | 31' | – | – | – | 16 (14%) | 2 |
| 13 Janni Serra F | 6.6 | 23' | – | – | – | 7 (4%) | 1 |
| 23 Mikael Anderson M | 6.3 | 97' | – | – | 1 | 38 (30%) | 2 |
| 27 Stefen Tchamche F | 6.3 | 50' | – | – | – | 6 (6%) | – |
| 28 James Bogere F | 6.0 | 70' | – | – | – | 9 (6%) | – |
| 45 Christian Storch D | 6.0 | 60' | – | – | – | 30 (25%) | 1 |
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Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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P. Wålemark
2 gls
J. Bogere
2 gls
Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad
2 gls
T. Bech
1 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Lech Poznan vs Aarhus
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | Aarhus | 1 - 4 | Lech Poznan |
Lech Poznan — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug | H KI Klaksvik | W | 1 - 0 |
| 01 Aug | A Wieczysta Kraków | W | 1 - 2 |
| 29 Jul | H Aarhus | L | 0 - 3 |
| 25 Jul | H Cracovia Krakow | D | 0 - 0 |
| 21 Jul | A Aarhus | W | 1 - 4 |
Aarhus — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug | H Sabah FA | W | 2 - 1 |
| 01 Aug | A Lyngby | D | 2 - 2 |
| 29 Jul | A Lech Poznan | W | 0 - 3 |
| 25 Jul | H Brondby | D | 1 - 1 |
| 21 Jul | H Lech Poznan | L | 1 - 4 |
UEFA Champions League Standings
League standings are not available for this competition.
Aarhus
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: Jakob Poulsen
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Mads Hedenstad | G |
| 40 | Jonas Jensen-Abbew | D |
| 5 | Frederik Tingager | D |
| 19 | Eric Kahl | D |
| 23 | Mikael Anderson | M |
| 4 | Magnus Knudsen | M |
| 16 | Jens Jønsson | M |
| 39 | Frederik Emmery | M |
| 31 | Tobias Bech | F |
| 10 | Kristian Arnstad | F |
| 28 | James Bogere | F |
Substitutes
| 45 | Christian Storch | D |
| 29 | Rasmus Carstensen | D |
| 27 | Stefen Tchamche | F |
| 44 | Mouhammade Camara | D |
| 13 | Janni Serra | F |
| 20 | Tómas Óli Kristjánsson | F |
| 42 | Marius van der Raad | G |
| 41 | Otto Lyhne | G |
| 43 | Zander Grantzau | D |
| 46 | Hamuza Sengooba | D |
| 8 | Sebastian Jørgensen | M |
| 22 | Oskar Haugstrup | M |
Lech Poznan
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Niels Frederiksen
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Lis | G |
| 20 | Robert Gumny | D |
| 27 | Wojciech Mońka | D |
| 59 | Terry Yegbe | D |
| 15 | Michal Gurgul | D |
| 22 | Radosław Murawski | M |
| 43 | Antoni Kozubal | M |
| 10 | Patrik Wålemark | M |
| 21 | Pablo Rodríguez | M |
| 77 | Luis Palma | M |
| 9 | Mikael Ishak | F |
Substitutes
| 17 | Allahyar Sayyadmanesh | M |
| 2 | Joel Pereira | D |
| 24 | Filip Jagiełło | M |
| 11 | Daniel Håkans | M |
| 7 | Yannick Agnero | F |
| 23 | Gisli Thordarson | M |
| 35 | Mateusz Pruchniewski | G |
| 41 | Bartosz Mrozek | G |
| 4 | João Moutinho | D |
| 72 | Mateusz Skrzypczak | D |
| 90 | Hubert Janyszka | D |