Kairat Almaty vs Omonia Nicosia Prediction

UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying Round

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Kairat Almaty

Home

1 : 0

HT 1 - 0

1st leg 0-1 · Aggregate 1-1

Omonia Nicosia

Away

AI call Omonia Nicosia or draw

31%

28%

41%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Kairat Almaty vs Omonia Nicosia prediction: Sportiko gives Kairat Almaty a 31% chance of winning, Omonia Nicosia 41% and the draw 28%. Last updated 29 Jul 2026, 17:54.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 71%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%

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Match Report

Kairat Almaty edged through to the next round of the UEFA Champions League qualifying after a dramatic penalty shootout against Omonia Nicosia, with the Kazakh side winning despite finishing level at 1–0 after extra time. The home side took the lead through a goal in the 37th minute, scored just moments after two substitutions forced by a red card shown in the 26th minute had disrupted Omonia's shape in the first half.

The second half and extra time were eventful, with Omonia's Senou Coulibaly picking up two yellow cards in quick succession in the 111th minute to be dismissed, leaving the Cypriot side down to ten men for the closing stages. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Omonia held on to force a shootout.

The penalty sequence proved decisive, with Jure Balkovec and Nikolas Panagiotou missing for Omonia while Anastasios Chatzigiovanis, Panagiotis Andreou, Angelos Neophytou, and Ioannis Kousoulos all converted. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Omonia win as the most likely outcome at 41%, a call that ultimately did not come to pass.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Yellow Card

24' ▮

▮ 26'

Red Card

36' ⇄

37' ⚽ 1–0

Yellow Card

41' ▮

HT 1–0

⇄ 65'

Muamer Tanković ⇄ Anastasios Chatzigiovanis

⇄ 65'

Yellow Card

67' ▮

▮ 68'

Senou Coulibaly Yellow Card

72' ⇄

⇄ 76'

Stefan Simic

⇄ 76'

Ewandro Costa ⇄ Ioannis Kousoulos

80' ⇄

▮ 96'

Mateo Marić Yellow Card

102' ⇄

▮ 111'

Senou Coulibaly Yellow Card

▮ 111'

Senou Coulibaly Red Card

⇄ 114'

⇄ Angelos Neophytou

Penalty

120+1' ⚽ 2–0

⚽ 2–1 120+1'

Anastasios Chatzigiovanis Penalty

Penalty

120+2' ⚽ 3–1

✗ 120+2'

Jure Balkovec Missed Penalty

Penalty

120+3' ⚽ 4–1

⚽ 4–2 120+3'

Panagiotis Andreou Penalty

Missed Penalty

120+4' ✗

⚽ 4–3 120+4'

Angelos Neophytou Penalty

Penalty

120+5' ⚽ 5–3

⚽ 5–4 120+5'

Ioannis Kousoulos Penalty

Penalty

120+6' ⚽ 6–4

⚽ 6–5 120+6'

Penalty

120+7' ⚽ 7–5

✗ 120+7'

Nikolas Panagiotou Missed Penalty

FT 1–0

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Confidence Low (41%)

At a glance

Our lean

Omonia Nicosia or draw

Most likely score

0:1 · 14.3%

Both teams to score

42%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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Kairat Almaty

LWWLW

Omonia Nicosia

DLWDL

Last 3 meetings Kairat Almaty · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

In the UEFA Champions League clash, Kairat Almaty will face Omonia Nicosia. Kairat Almaty has shown strong domestic form, with a solid home record in recent seasons, while Omonia Nicosia has been consistent in Cypriot competitions but may face challenges adapting to the pace of the Champions League. Key players to watch include Kairat's attacking duo, who have been effective in creating chances, and Omonia's midfielders, who excel in controlling possession. The match is expected to be competitive, with tactical discipline being crucial for both sides.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

31%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

41%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Omonia Nicosia goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	14	13	8	3	1
1	5	12	9	5	2	1
2	2	4	3	2	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Kairat Almaty goals · most likely 0–1 (14.3%)

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Match Result

Away Win

41%

Home Win

31%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

41%

Home Win

31%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

82% Away (No Draw) 18% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

35% Away Win by 2+ 4% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

60% Away Scores More 27% Equal Goals 14% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.7%	14.3%	13.4%	7.6%	3.2%
1	5.0%	12.2%	9.2%	5.2%	2.2%
2	2.2%	3.7%	3.2%	1.8%	0.8%
3	0.5%	0.9%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Kairat Almaty	Draw	Omonia Nicosia
Kairat Almaty	6.4%	2.7%	1.5%
Draw	6.7%	17.8%	18.9%
Omonia Nicosia	1.0%	4.0%	41.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

97%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

50%

35%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

50%

1.5

50%

76%

2.5

24%

91%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Kairat Almaty vs Omonia Nicosia

0 Kairat Almaty Wins

2 Draws

1 Omonia Nicosia Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
22 Jul 2026	Omonia Nicosia	1 - 0	Kairat Almaty
09 Dec 2021	Omonia Nicosia	0 - 0	Kairat Almaty
16 Sep 2021	Kairat Almaty	0 - 0	Omonia Nicosia

Kairat Almaty — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
04 Aug	A Levski Sofia	L	1 - 0
29 Jul	H Omonia Nicosia	W	1 - 0
26 Jul	H Ordabasy	W	2 - 1
22 Jul	A Omonia Nicosia	L	1 - 0
15 Jul	A Sutjeska	W	0 - 2

Omonia Nicosia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Aug	A Lincoln Red Imps FC	D	1 - 1
29 Jul	A Kairat Almaty	L	1 - 0
22 Jul	H Kairat Almaty	W	1 - 0
09 Jul	A Korona Kielce	D	0 - 0
05 Jul	H Hapoel Beer Sheva	L	0 - 1

UEFA Champions League Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Kairat Almaty

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Rafael Urazbakhtin

1 Anarbekov

3 Mata

44 Áfrico

14 Martynovich

24 Mrynskiy

22 Mendonca

4 Kasabulat

5 Kurgin

13 Oksanen

19 Jukkola

28 Gual

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Temirlan Anarbekov	G
24	Aleksandr Mrynskiy	D
14	Aleksandr Martynovich	D
44	Lucas Áfrico	D
3	Luís Mata	D
4	Damir Kasabulat	M
22	Gustavo Mendonca	M
19	Oiva Jukkola	M
13	Jaakko Oksanen	M
5	Lev Kurgin	D
28	Marc Gual	F

Substitutes

9	Edmilson	F
81	Ismail Bekbolat	F
8	Olzhas Baibek	M
17	Azamat Tuyakbayev	M
15	Mansur Birkurmanov	F
25	Aleksandr Shirobokov	D
30	Danila Buch	G
82	Sherkhan Kalmurza	G
20	Erkin Tapalov	D
32	Adlan Nurgaliev	D
59	Daniyar Tashpulatov	D
6	Adilet Sadybekov	M

Omonia Nicosia

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Henning Berg

40 Fabiano

29 Balkovec

30 Panagiotou

5 Coulibaly

27 Simic

21 Mayambela

14 Marić

74 Andreou

11 Costa

22 Tanković

9 Kakoullis

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
40	Fabiano	G
27	Stefan Simic	D
5	Senou Coulibaly	D
30	Nikolas Panagiotou	D
29	Jure Balkovec	D
11	Ewandro Costa	M
74	Panagiotis Andreou	M
14	Mateo Marić	M
21	Mihlali Mayambela	M
9	Andronikos Kakoullis	F
22	Muamer Tanković	M

Substitutes

10	Tasos Chatzigiovanis	M
99	Loïs Diony	F
82	Andreas Christou	M
31	Ioannis Kousoulos	M
85	Angelos Neophytou	F
23	Francis Uzoho	G
78	Pantelis Michail	G
90	Christos Konstantinidis	D
92	Christoforou Panagiotis	D
6	Carel Eiting	M
7	Jaden Montnor	M