Shamrock Rovers vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction

UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Post on X

Shamrock Rovers

Home

2 : 1

HT 2 - 0

1st leg 0-2 · Aggregate 2-3

Ararat-Armenia

Away

AI call Shamrock Rovers or draw

49%

26%

25%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Shamrock Rovers vs Ararat-Armenia prediction: Sportiko gives Shamrock Rovers a 49% chance of winning, Ararat-Armenia 25% and the draw 26%. Last updated 29 Jul 2026, 03:20.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Under 3.5 Goals 72%

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Match Report

Shamrock Rovers progressed in the UEFA Champions League second qualifying round with a 2–1 home victory over Ararat-Armenia, establishing a commanding position by the interval. The Irish side went into the break with a two-goal cushion, having done the bulk of their work in a productive first half.

Ararat-Armenia pulled one back after the restart to set up a nervy finish, though Rovers ultimately held on to secure the result. The visitors' second-half goal ensured the closing stages were tense, but the home side's first-half lead proved sufficient to see them through.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Shamrock Rovers win as the most likely outcome at 49%, a call that felt far from settled as Ararat threatened a comeback. In the end, the result vindicated the forecast, with Rovers claiming a narrow but important victory to advance in Europe.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Matthew Healy assist: Aaron Greene

11' ⚽ 1–0

Aaron Greene assist: Jack Byrne

36' ⚽ 2–0

HT 2–0

▮ 50'

Yellow Card

Pico Yellow Card

58' ▮

⇄ 72'

A. Serobyan ⇄ França

⚽ 2–1 73'

Sandro Lima

Aaron Greene ⇄ J. Afolabi

77' ⇄

Jake Mulraney ⇄ Enda Stevens

77' ⇄

▮ 81'

Bruno Wilson Yellow Card

▮ 82'

França Yellow Card

⇄ 84'

Zidane Banjaqui ⇄ Z. Shaghoyan

⇄ 84'

M. Carlier ⇄ M. Ayvazyan

Lee Grace

85' ⇄

Dylan Watts ⇄ Naj Razi

85' ⇄

Graham Burke ⇄ Michael Noonan

88' ⇄

⇄ 90+4'

Sandro Lima

⇄ 90+4'

Hugo Oliveira

FT 2–1

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Confidence Low (49%)

At a glance

Our lean

Shamrock Rovers or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.7%

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

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Shamrock Rovers

WWDWL

Ararat-Armenia

WWWLW

Last 1 meetings Shamrock Rovers · 0W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the UEFA Champions League matchup, Shamrock Rovers will face Ararat-Armenia. Analyzing recent form, Shamrock Rovers typically showcase a solid defensive structure, allowing an average of just 1 goal per match in recent competitive fixtures. In contrast, Ararat-Armenia has demonstrated a potent attack, averaging 1.5 goals scored per game in their last five outings. Set pieces could be crucial, as both teams have shown vulnerabilities in defending them. With both teams looking to secure an advantage early in the tournament, tactical discipline and conversion of chances will be key determinants for success.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

49%

10%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

25%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Ararat-Armenia goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	6	5	2	1
1	9	14	7	3	1
2	8	9	5	2	1
3	4	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5		1

↑ Shamrock Rovers goals · most likely 1–1 (13.7%)

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Players in form

Shamrock Rovers

D. Watts 1 gls

J. Byrne 1 gls

Ararat-Armenia

Sandro Lima 1 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

26%

Away Win

25%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

26%

Away Win

25%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

61% Home (No Draw) 39% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

22% Home Win by 2+ 12% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

44% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals 28% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	6.3%	4.7%	1.8%	0.5%
1	8.7%	13.7%	7.1%	2.8%	0.8%
2	7.8%	9.3%	5.5%	2.2%	0.6%
3	4.0%	4.7%	2.8%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.5%	1.8%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

55%

1.5

45%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Shamrock Rovers	Draw	Ararat-Armenia
Shamrock Rovers	25.3%	3.9%	1.4%
Draw	16.7%	17.5%	9.8%
Ararat-Armenia	2.8%	5.1%	17.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

22%

33%

25%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

78%

1.5

22%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Shamrock Rovers vs Ararat-Armenia

0 Shamrock Rovers Wins

0 Draws

1 Ararat-Armenia Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
21 Jul 2026	Ararat-Armenia	2 - 0	Shamrock Rovers

Shamrock Rovers — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Aug	H Dundalk	W	3 - 2
04 Aug	H Egnatia Rrogozhinë	W	3 - 1
31 Jul	A Drogheda United	D	0 - 0
28 Jul	H Ararat-Armenia	W	2 - 1
21 Jul	A Ararat-Armenia	L	2 - 0

Ararat-Armenia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Aug	H FC Urartu	W	2 - 1
04 Aug	H Celje	W	2 - 1
01 Aug	A Gandzasar	W	3 - 4
28 Jul	A Shamrock Rovers	L	2 - 1
21 Jul	H Shamrock Rovers	W	2 - 0

UEFA Champions League Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Ararat-Armenia

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: Tulipa

98 Bravim

47 Malis

43 Wilson

3 Julio

16 Grigoryan

19 Muradyan

17 Carlier

2 Oliveira

11 Banjaqui

91 Lima

77 Serobyan

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
98	João Bravim	G
3	Junior Julio	D
43	Bruno Wilson	D
47	Alexandros Malis	D
2	Hugo Oliveira	D
17	Maxence Carlier	M
19	Karen Muradyan	M
16	Edgar Grigoryan	D
77	Artur Serobyan	M
91	Sandro Lima	F
11	Zidane Banjaqui	M

Substitutes

95	Carlos França	M
6	Michel Ayvazyan	M
7	Zhirayr Shaghoyan	M
5	Luís Felipe	D
25	Alioune Ndour	F
1	Arman Nersesyan	G
14	Bruno Pereira	D
20	Alwyn Tera	M
9	Arayik Eloyan	F
90	Paul Ayongo	F

Shamrock Rovers

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Stephen Bradley

1 McGinty

5 Grace

4 Pico

11 Mulraney

19 Brennan

29 Byrne

8 Healy

7 Watts

22 Sobowale

10 Burke

9 Greene

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Ed McGinty	G
11	Jake Mulraney	M
4	Pico	D
5	Lee Grace	D
22	Tunmise Sobowale	D
7	Dylan Watts	M
8	Matthew Healy	M
29	Jack Byrne	M
19	Adam Brennan	M
9	Aaron Greene	F
10	Graham Burke	F

Substitutes

3	Enda Stevens	D
18	Jonathan Afolabi	F
14	Daniel Mandroiu	M
28	Naj Razi	M
31	Michael Noonan	F
41	Alex Noonan	G
2	Adam Matthews	D
17	Luke O'Regan	D
27	Cory O'Sullivan	D
33	Cian Barrett	D
26	John O'Sullivan	M
38	Max Kovaleskis	F