Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction

First League · Regular Season - 2

Post on X

Septemvri Sofia

Away

Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv

AI call Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw

47%

30%

22%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia prediction: Sportiko gives Lokomotiv Plovdiv a 47% chance of winning, Septemvri Sofia 22% and the draw 30%. Last updated 26 Jul 2026, 20:10.

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1st Half Home or Draw 74%
2nd Half Over 0.5 71%

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Timeline

5' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 7'

Yellow Card

15' ▮

⇄ 31'

Yellow Card

41' ▮

⚽ 1–1 45'

HT 1–1

65' ⇄

71' ⇄

▮ 73'

Yellow Card

⇄ 78'

⇄ 85'

Own Goal

88' ⚽ 2–1

FT 2–1

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Confidence Low (47%)

At a glance

Our lean

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 15%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

41%

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Lokomotiv Plovdiv

LLWLW

Septemvri Sofia

LLDLW

Last 1 meetings Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 1W 0D 0L

Match summary

Lokomotiv Plovdiv faces Septemvri Sofia in a crucial First League matchup. Plovdiv has shown solid form, with a strong home record, while Septemvri has struggled on the road this season. Historically, Plovdiv has outperformed Septemvri in head-to-head encounters, suggesting a potential edge for the home side. Key players to watch include Plovdiv's leading scorer, who has been pivotal in their recent victories, and Septemvri's playmaker, who will need to orchestrate effective attacks to challenge the defense. Set-pieces may also play a crucial role, given both teams' tendencies to concede from corners.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

47%

10%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

22%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Septemvri Sofia goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	10	7	3	1
1	10	15	8	3	1
2	7	8	4	2	1
3	3	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals · most likely 1–1 (15.0%)

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Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

22%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

31%

1.5

69%

59%

2.5

41%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

22%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

50% Home (No Draw) 50% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

15% Home Win by 2+ 15% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

34% Home Scores More 34% Away Scores More 32% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

31%

1.5

69%

59%

2.5

41%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.5%	9.6%	6.6%	2.5%	0.7%
1	9.7%	15.0%	7.7%	3.0%	0.9%
2	6.7%	7.7%	4.5%	1.7%	0.5%
3	2.6%	3.0%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.8%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

70%

1.5

30%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	Draw	Septemvri Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	20.3%	4.4%	1.7%
Draw	13.5%	20.8%	13.5%
Septemvri Sofia	1.7%	4.3%	19.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia

1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Wins

0 Draws

0 Septemvri Sofia Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
13 Mar 2026	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1 - 0	Septemvri Sofia

Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Aug	A Levski Sofia	L	2 - 0
03 Aug	A Spartak Varna	L	1 - 0
26 Jul	H Septemvri Sofia	W	2 - 1
18 Jul	A Ludogorets	L	1 - 0
08 Jul	A Rilski Sportist	W	0 - 2

Septemvri Sofia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Levski Sofia	L	3 - 0
26 Jul	A Lokomotiv Plovdiv	L	2 - 1
18 Jul	H Arda Kardzhali	D	1 - 1
10 Jul	A Ludogorets	L	1 - 0
27 Jun	H Marek	W	3 - 0

First League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Ludogorets	3	3	0	0	5	1	+4	9
3	Spartak Varna	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
4	CSKA 1948	3	2	1	0	6	4	+2	7
5	CSKA Sofia	3	2	1	0	5	3	+2	7
6	Botev Plovdiv	3	1	1	1	4	4	0	4
7	Arda Kardzhali	3	1	1	1	3	3	0	4
8	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	4	1	0	3	2	5	-3	3
9	Lokomotiv Sofia	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2
10	Slavia Sofia	3	0	2	1	1	2	-1	2
11	Botev Vratsa	3	0	1	2	3	5	-2	1
12	Septemvri Sofia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1
13	Cherno More Varna	3	0	1	2	1	5	-4	1
14	Dunav Ruse	3	0	0	3	2	6	-4	0

Septemvri Sofia

Formation: 3-4-1-2 Coach: Simao Freitas

12 Ivanov

3 Wade

4 Hristov

13 Onashchi

8 Penchev

6 Ferreira

5 Baurenski

29 Herard

33 Ivanov

7 Ribeiro

11 Dzhamov

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	Vladimir Ivanov	G
13	Kubrat Onashchi	D
4	Martin Hristov	D
3	Sebas Wade	D
29	Frantzety Herard	F
5	Yoan Baurenski	M
6	Pedro Ferreira	M
8	Bozhidar Penchev	D
33	Galin Ivanov	M
11	Aleksandar Dzhamov	F
7	Edney Ribeiro	F

Substitutes

28	Stoyan Stoichkov	M
21	Nikolay Krastev	G
26	Valentine Ozornwafor	D
20	Bozhidar Tomovski	D
23	Borislav Stoichkov	D
17	Nicolas Fontaine	M
30	Viktor Dobrev	M
16	Venislav Mihaylov	M
14	Aleksandar Vutov	M
24	Zahari Atanasov	M
27	André Liberal	F