Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna Prediction

First League · Regular Season - 2

Post on X

Spartak Varna

Away

AI call Cherno More Varna or draw

48%

31%

21%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna prediction: Sportiko gives Cherno More Varna a 48% chance of winning, Spartak Varna 21% and the draw 31%. Last updated 26 Jul 2026, 17:55.

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1st Half Draw or Away 74%
Under 2.5 Goals 72%

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Timeline

▮ 13'

Yellow Card

22' ▮

⚽ 0–1 33'

HT 0–1

46' ⇄

▮ 54'

Yellow Card

⇄ 57'

▮ 69'

Yellow Card

72' ⇄

⇄ 73'

83' ⇄

⚽ 0–2 88'

⇄ 89'

⚽ 0–3 90+4'

FT 0–3

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Confidence Low (48%)

At a glance

Our lean

Cherno More Varna or draw

Most likely score

0:0 · 17.3%

Both teams to score

38%

Over 2.5 goals

28%

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Cherno More Varna

LLDDD

Spartak Varna

WWWDL

Match summary

Cherno More Varna will face Spartak Varna in a First League match on July 26, 2026. Cherno More has historically been stronger at home, but Spartak Varna has shown resilience in away fixtures. Key players to watch include Cherno More's top scorer, who has netted 12 goals this season, and Spartak's solid midfield which has contributed to their defensive stability. The match will likely hinge on Cherno More's ability to convert possession into clear goal-scoring opportunities against Spartak's organized defense. With both teams vying for crucial points, expect a competitive encounter.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

48%

45%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

21%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Spartak Varna goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	17	11	5	2
1	14	15	6	2
2	8	7	3	1
3	3	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Cherno More Varna goals · most likely 0–0 (17.3%)

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Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

31%

Away Win

21%

Both Teams To Score

62% BTTS No 38% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

43%

1.5

57%

72%

2.5

28%

88%

3.5

12%

96%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

31%

Away Win

21%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

58% Home (No Draw) 43% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

15% Home Win by 2+ 10% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

37% Home Scores More 36% Equal Goals 27% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

43%

1.5

57%

72%

2.5

28%

88%

3.5

12%

96%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

62% BTTS No 38% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

17%

26%

29%

17%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

55% Even Total Goals 45% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	17.3%	11.4%	5.5%	1.5%	0.3%
1	14.2%	15.1%	5.6%	1.6%	0.3%
2	8.1%	6.8%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%
3	2.8%	2.3%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

78%

1.5

22%

95%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

44%

34%

16%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

37%

34%

20%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Cherno More Varna	Draw	Spartak Varna
Cherno More Varna	21.4%	3.8%	1.0%
Draw	15.5%	25.7%	11.9%
Spartak Varna	1.3%	3.9%	15.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

36%

37%

19%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

43%

36%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Cherno More Varna — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Botev Plovdiv	L	1 - 0
26 Jul	H Spartak Varna	L	0 - 3
19 Jul	A Botev Vratsa	D	1 - 1
08 Jul	H Dobrudzha	D	2 - 2
01 Jul	H Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	D	0 - 0

Spartak Varna — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
03 Aug	H Lokomotiv Plovdiv	W	1 - 0
26 Jul	A Cherno More Varna	W	0 - 3
17 Jul	H CSKA 1948	W	2 - 0
08 Jul	H Nesebar	D	1 - 1
19 Mar	H Ludogorets	L	1 - 5

First League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Ludogorets	3	3	0	0	5	1	+4	9
3	Spartak Varna	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
4	CSKA 1948	3	2	1	0	6	4	+2	7
5	CSKA Sofia	3	2	1	0	5	3	+2	7
6	Botev Plovdiv	3	1	1	1	4	4	0	4
7	Arda Kardzhali	3	1	1	1	3	3	0	4
8	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	4	1	0	3	2	5	-3	3
9	Lokomotiv Sofia	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2
10	Slavia Sofia	3	0	2	1	1	2	-1	2
11	Botev Vratsa	3	0	1	2	3	5	-2	1
12	Septemvri Sofia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1
13	Cherno More Varna	3	0	1	2	1	5	-4	1
14	Dunav Ruse	3	0	0	3	2	6	-4	0

Cherno More Varna

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Ilian Iliev

81 Tomov

37 Kerchev

5 Squadrone

3 Atanasov

50 Tombak

24 Teles

29 Beyhan

7 Barandas

71 Panayotov

8 Donchev

20 Kolev

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
81	Kristian Tomov	G
50	Ertan Tombak	D
3	Zhivko Atanasov	D
5	Luciano Squadrone	D
37	Ventsislav Kerchev	D
29	Berk Beyhan	M
24	David Teles	M
8	Asen Donchev	D
71	Vasil Panayotov	M
7	Miguel Barandas	F
20	Aleksandar Kolev	F

Substitutes

70	Antoan Manasiev	G
13	Emanuil Nyagolov	D
93	Georgi Ventsislavov	D
26	João Bandaro	D
23	Martin Banev	M
22	Nikolay Petrov Kostadinov	M
14	Aleksandar Todorov	M
18	Petar Andreev	M
39	Nikolay Zlatev	M
19	Georgi Lazarov	F
77	Celso Sidney	F

Spartak Varna

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Gjoko Hadzievski

23 Iliev

4 Ivanov

45 Tshitoku

44 Granchov

20 Lozev

8 Yordanov

17 Marinov

90 Stojanovski

82 Silva

10 Lopes

99 Trifonov

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Plamen Iliev	G
20	Deyan Lozev	D
44	Angel Granchov	D
45	Joey Tshitoku	D
4	Boris Ivanov	D
17	Tsvetoslav Marinov	M
8	Damian Yordanov	M
10	Jota Lopes	M
82	Tomás Silva	M
90	Georg Stojanovski	F
99	Georgi Trifonov	F

Substitutes

1	Pedro Victor	G
72	Vasco Oliveira	D
76	David Valverde Juan	D
6	Ricardo Sousa	M
9	Tsvetelin Chunchukov	F
80	Ángel Gomes Arevalo	F
11	Boubacar Hanne	F
77	Anton Ivanov	F