ST Mirren vs Dunfermline Prediction

League Cup · Group Stage

Post on X

Dunfermline

Away

The SMISA Stadium, Paisley

AI call Difficult ST Mirren win or draw

56%

24%

19%

Home Win Draw Away Win

ST Mirren vs Dunfermline prediction: Sportiko gives ST Mirren a 56% chance of winning, Dunfermline 19% and the draw 24%. Last updated 26 Jul 2026, 15:56.

Timeline

▮ 6'

Yellow Card

▮ 29'

Yellow Card

HT 0–0

⇄ 61'

⇄ Roland Idowu

61' ⇄

⇄ 66'

⇄ Luke Douglas

71' ⇄

⇄ 74'

▮ 75'

Yellow Card

76' ▮

80' ⇄

Killian Phillips

80' ⇄

Yellow Card

85' ▮

⚽ 0–1 88'

Penalty

▮ 90+3'

Yellow Card

FT 0–1

ST Mirren

Match Stats

Dunfermline

50% Ball Possession 50%

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

5 Shots on Goal 5

4 Shots off Goal 5

0 Blocked Shots 1

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

8 Corner Kicks 5

0 Offsides 0

1 Fouls 0

2 Yellow Cards 4

0 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence Medium (56%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult ST Mirren win or draw

Most likely score

1:0 · 17.8%

Both teams to score

32%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

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ST Mirren

LLLWD

Dunfermline

WWDWL

Last 3 meetings ST Mirren · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming League Cup match, St Mirren will face Dunfermline. St Mirren has shown a solid performance in recent fixtures, particularly in their defensive organization, averaging only 1.2 goals conceded per match in their last five games. Dunfermline, while competitive, has struggled to maintain consistency, particularly in away matches, where they have averaged 1.5 goals conceded over their last five away games. This matchup will likely hinge on St Mirren's ability to capitalize on their scoring opportunities against a Dunfermline side that may have defensive vulnerabilities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

56%

45%

Draw

24%

45%

Away

19%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Dunfermline goals →

	0	1	2
0	12	4	1
1	18	10	2
2	17	8	2
3	10	5	1
4	4	2
5	2	1

↑ ST Mirren goals · most likely 1–0 (17.8%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

24%

Away Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

68% BTTS No 32% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

33%

1.5

67%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

24%

Away Win

19%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

89% Home (No Draw) 11% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

41% Home Win by 2+ 2% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

68% Home Scores More 24% Equal Goals 8% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

33%

1.5

67%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

68% BTTS No 32% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

22%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.8%	3.9%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%
1	17.8%	10.1%	2.1%	0.3%	0.0%
2	16.9%	7.9%	1.9%	0.3%	0.0%
3	10.0%	4.7%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%
4	4.5%	2.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

35%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

34%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	ST Mirren	Draw	Dunfermline
ST Mirren	44.5%	2.4%	0.4%
Draw	23.1%	17.2%	3.7%
Dunfermline	1.7%	2.6%	4.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

47%

1.5

53%

74%

2.5

26%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

99%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

63%

29%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

80%

0.5

20%

98%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

78%

0.5

22%

97%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: ST Mirren vs Dunfermline

1 ST Mirren Wins

2 Draws

0 Dunfermline Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
21 Apr 2012	ST Mirren	4 - 4	Dunfermline
24 Mar 2012	Dunfermline	1 - 1	ST Mirren
19 Nov 2011	ST Mirren	2 - 1	Dunfermline

See all 4 meetings — Premium

ST Mirren — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Dundee Utd	L	0 - 3
09 Sep	A Rangers	L	1 - 0
05 Sep	H Celtic	L	1 - 2
02 Sep	A Kilmarnock	W	0 - 1
30 Aug	H Motherwell	D	3 - 3

Dunfermline — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Morton	W	0 - 1
12 Sep	H Queen's Park	W	2 - 0
05 Sep	A Arbroath	D	1 - 1
28 Aug	H Raith Rovers	W	1 - 0
22 Aug	A Livingston	L	2 - 0

League Cup Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.