Stenhousemuir vs Livingston Prediction

League Cup · Group Stage

Post on X

Livingston

Away

Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir

AI call Difficult Livingston win or draw

17%

24%

58%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Stenhousemuir vs Livingston prediction: Sportiko gives Stenhousemuir a 17% chance of winning, Livingston 58% and the draw 24%. Last updated 25 Jul 2026, 16:03.

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Timeline

28' ⇄

HT 0–0

Yellow Card

47' ▮

✗ 49'

Robbie Muirhead Missed Penalty

⇄ 61'

Liam Polworth

⇄ 61'

64' ⇄

Yellow Card

72' ▮

⇄ 72'

73' ⇄

Yellow Card

80' ▮

⇄ 83'

Babacar Fati

Yellow Card

85' ▮

Penalty

91' ⚽ 1–0

✗ 92'

Robbie Muirhead Missed Penalty

Missed Penalty

93' ✗

⚽ 1–1 93'

Penalty

94' ⚽ 2–1

✗ 95'

Stevie May Missed Penalty

Missed Penalty

95' ✗

✗ 96'

Missed Penalty

Penalty

97' ⚽ 3–1

FT 0–0

Stenhousemuir

Match Stats

Livingston

32% Ball Possession 68%

4 Total Shots 7

2 Shots on Goal 6

1 Shots off Goal 1

1 Blocked Shots 0

0 Shots insidebox 5

4 Shots outsidebox 2

2 Corner Kicks 4

3 Offsides 4

17 Fouls 14

3 Yellow Cards 0

0 Red Cards 0

6 Goalkeeper Saves 2

14 Free Kicks 17

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Confidence Medium (58%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Livingston win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.6%

Both teams to score

48%

Over 2.5 goals

44%

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Stenhousemuir

WWLWW

Livingston

DWLLW

Last 1 meetings Stenhousemuir · 1W 0D 0L

Match summary

Stenhousemuir will face Livingston in the League Cup on July 25, 2026. Stenhousemuir, playing in a lower division, will look to leverage their competitive edge in cup competitions, while Livingston, a Premiership side, brings a more experienced squad. Key players to watch include Stenhousemuir's top scorer and Livingston's playmaker, who will be crucial in dictating the match tempo. Historical data indicates that lower-league teams can often pull off surprises in knockout formats, making this an intriguing matchup.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

17%

10%

Draw

24%

45%

Away

58%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Livingston goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	12	11	6	2	1
1	6	14	9	5	2	1
2	3	5	4	2	1
3	1	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Stenhousemuir goals · most likely 1–1 (13.6%)

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Match Result

Away Win

58%

Draw

24%

Home Win

17%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

58%

Draw

24%

Home Win

17%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

72% Away (No Draw) 28% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

28% Away Win by 2+ 7% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

52% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals 20% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.3%	12.1%	10.7%	5.6%	2.2%
1	6.2%	13.6%	9.4%	4.9%	1.9%
2	3.4%	5.3%	4.1%	2.2%	0.8%
3	1.0%	1.6%	1.2%	0.6%	0.3%
4	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Stenhousemuir	Draw	Livingston
Stenhousemuir	10.9%	3.6%	1.8%
Draw	8.4%	18.7%	16.5%
Livingston	1.2%	4.4%	34.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

94%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

41%

37%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Stenhousemuir vs Livingston

1 Stenhousemuir Wins

0 Draws

0 Livingston Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
04 Sep 2026	Livingston	0 - 1	Stenhousemuir

Stenhousemuir — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Arbroath	W	1 - 0
15 Sep	H Partick	W	1 - 0
11 Sep	H Heart Of Midlothian	L	0 - 3
04 Sep	A Livingston	W	0 - 1
29 Aug	H Inverness CT	W	3 - 1

Livingston — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Inverness CT	D	2 - 2
11 Sep	A Morton	W	1 - 4
04 Sep	H Stenhousemuir	L	0 - 1
29 Aug	A Arbroath	L	1 - 0
22 Aug	H Dunfermline	W	2 - 0

League Cup Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Livingston

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Emiliano Té

28 Prior

17 May

3 Fati

23 Kabongolo

22 Doherty

9 Muirhead

27 Carey

39 Polworth

7 Sinclair

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
28	J. Prior	G
22	J. Doherty	D
23	Brooklyn Kabongolo	D
3	Babacar Fati	D
17	S. May	M
39	L. Polworth	M
27	G. Carey	F
9	R. Muirhead	F
7	T. Sinclair	F

Substitutes

14	J. Hamilton	G
2	C. Kerr	D
5	R. McGowan	D
26	C. Montaño	D
4	J. Wilkie	D
6	A. Denholm	M
36	S. Culbert	F
15	C. MacPherson	M

Stenhousemuir

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Emiliano Té

1 Jamieson

28 Penman

5 Young

2 Meechan

15 Carrick

11 O'Donnell

14 Bilham

17 Anderson

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	D. Jamieson	G
2	R. Meechan	D
5	S. Young	D
28	C. Penman	M
17	M. Anderson	M
14	K. Bilham	M
11	L. O'Donnell	M
15	D. Carrick	F

Substitutes

4	G. Buchanan	D
25	E. Deveney	D
34	R. Hemfrey	G
7	E. O'Reilly	M
8	F. Robson	M
22	S. Scally	M