Falkirk vs Stranraer Prediction

League Cup · Group Stage

Post on X

Stranraer

Away

AI call Falkirk to win or draw

77%

16%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Falkirk vs Stranraer prediction: Sportiko gives Falkirk a 77% chance of winning, Stranraer 8% and the draw 16%. Last updated 25 Jul 2026, 15:48.

Timeline

Ryan Strain assist: Leon McCann

32' ⚽ 1–0

Liam Henderson assist: Ryan Strain

41' ⚽ 2–0

HT 2–0

Yellow Card

51' ▮

Ben Parkinson

59' ⚽ 3–0

66' ⇄

Ben Parkinson

66' ⇄

⇄ 67'

Ryan Strain Yellow Card

68' ▮

⇄ 70'

Ryan Strain ⇄ Brad Spencer

72' ⇄

Craig Sibbald ⇄ Finn Yeats

72' ⇄

⇄ Connor Allan

77' ⇄

⇄ 82'

FT 3–0

Falkirk

Match Stats

Stranraer

67% Ball Possession 33%

14 Total Shots 2

6 Shots on Goal 0

3 Shots off Goal 2

5 Blocked Shots 0

5 Shots insidebox 1

9 Shots outsidebox 1

4 Corner Kicks 3

1 Offsides 4

13 Fouls 14

2 Yellow Cards 0

0 Red Cards 0

0 Goalkeeper Saves 3

14 Free Kicks 13

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Confidence High (77%)

At a glance

Our lean

Falkirk to win or draw

Most likely score

1:0 · 16.3%

Both teams to score

38%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

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Falkirk

DWDLL

Stranraer

LWWWL

Match summary

Falkirk faces Stranraer in the League Cup, showcasing two teams with different aspirations. Falkirk, historically strong at home, will look to leverage their attacking prowess, having averaged 1.8 goals per match last season. Stranraer, on the other hand, finished lower in the league standings but showed resilience with a defensive record of only conceding 1.5 goals per game. The match will likely hinge on Falkirk's ability to break down Stranraer's defense, while Stranraer will aim to exploit any vulnerabilities on the counter-attack. This contest promises to be competitive as both teams seek to secure an early advantage in the cup.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

77%

45%

Draw

16%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Stranraer goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	12	5	2
1	16	12	3	1
2	14	9	3	1
3	8	5	1
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Falkirk goals · most likely 1–0 (16.3%)

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Match Result

Home Win

77%

Draw

16%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

62% BTTS No 38% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

77%

Draw

16%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

83% Home (No Draw) 17% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

34% Home Win by 2+ 3% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

61% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals 12% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

62% BTTS No 38% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

22%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.3%	5.2%	2.0%	0.4%	0.1%
1	16.3%	12.0%	3.2%	0.6%	0.1%
2	14.3%	8.6%	2.6%	0.5%	0.1%
3	7.8%	4.7%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%
4	3.1%	1.9%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

35%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

34%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Falkirk	Draw	Stranraer
Falkirk	38.5%	3.1%	0.6%
Draw	21.7%	19.0%	5.6%
Stranraer	1.8%	3.1%	6.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

55%

33%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Falkirk vs Stranraer

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Falkirk — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A ST Johnstone	D	1 - 1
15 Sep	H Heart Of Midlothian	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Dundee Utd	D	1 - 1
02 Sep	H Rangers	L	1 - 2
29 Aug	A Celtic	L	2 - 1

Stranraer — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
22 Sep	A Berwick Rangers	L	3 - 2
19 Sep	A Elgin City	W	1 - 5
12 Sep	H Dumbarton	W	3 - 1
05 Sep	A Forfar Athletic	W	0 - 3
01 Sep	H Celtic II	L	3 - 4

League Cup Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Falkirk

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: David Pagou

1 Hogarth

3 McCann

5 Henderson

22 Strain

4 McMillan

7 Parkinson

21 Meļņiks

11 McGovern

10 Sibbald

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	N. Hogarth	G
4	J. McMillan	D
22	R. Strain	D
5	L. Henderson	D
3	L. McCann	D
21	D. Meļņiks	M
7	Ben Parkinson	M
10	C. Sibbald	M
11	P. McGovern	M

Substitutes

6	C. Donaldson	D
20	C. Allan	D
9	R. MacIver	F
15	L. Neilson	D
8	B. Spencer	M
17	S. Tanser	D
14	F. Yeats	M
47	A. Doherty	F

Stranraer

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: David Pagou

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	M. Currie	G
21	L. Gillie	D
8	A. Quigg	M
12	A. Traynor	M
15	R. Hughes	F

Substitutes

7	J. Dolan	M
3	F. Ecrepont	D
18	E. Lynch	D
77	D. Clelland	F