Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

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Dinamo Minsk

Away

AI call Neftchi Baku or draw

47%

27%

26%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk prediction: Sportiko gives Neftchi Baku a 47% chance of winning, Dinamo Minsk 26% and the draw 27%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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1st Half Over 0.5 72%
Away to Score 71%

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Match Report

Dinamo Minsk secured a commanding 4–2 victory over Neftchi Baku in the UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round, overturning a half-time deficit to advance with a strong second-half display. The hosts made a blistering start, scoring in the second minute before an own goal in the eighth put Minsk on the board. Neftchi regained their lead with a 36th-minute strike, heading into the break at 2–1.

The second half belonged entirely to Dinamo Minsk. Goals in the 47th and 57th minutes swung the contest decisively in the visitors' favour, and despite a missed penalty at the 77-minute mark, Minsk added a fourth goal almost immediately to put the result beyond doubt. A flurry of substitutions from both sides in the hour mark reflected the tactical adjustments each manager sought to make.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Neftchi Baku win as the most likely outcome at 47%, a call that proved wide of the mark as Dinamo Minsk demonstrated clear superiority across the ninety minutes.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

2' ⚽ 1–0

Own Goal

8' ⚽ 2–0

⚽ 2–1 36'

▮ 45+2'

Yellow Card

HT 2–1

46' ⇄

⚽ 2–2 47'

Yellow Card

54' ▮

⚽ 2–3 57'

⇄ 59'

60' ⇄

66' ⇄

⇄ 73'

✗ 77'

Missed Penalty

⚽ 2–4 77'

⇄ 90+2'

FT 2–4

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Confidence Low (47%)

At a glance

Our lean

Neftchi Baku or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.6%

Both teams to score

60%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

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Neftchi Baku

WWWLW

Dinamo Minsk

WLDWL

Last 1 meetings Neftchi Baku · 1W 0D 0L

Match summary

In the UEFA Europa Conference League clash, Neftchi Baku will face Dinamo Minsk. Neftchi Baku has shown a solid home record, averaging 1.8 goals per match in recent domestic fixtures, while their defensive line has conceded only 0.9 goals per game. Dinamo Minsk, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, with a goal-scoring average of 1.2 per match and a defensive record conceding 1.5 goals. The match could hinge on Neftchi's ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities and maintain defensive stability against a Dinamo side that may look to counterattack effectively. Overall, this matchup presents an intriguing tactical battle between Baku's attacking prowess and Minsk's defensive resilience.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Dinamo Minsk goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	5	4	2
1	8	13	7	3	1
2	8	10	6	2	1
3	5	6	3	1
4	2	2	1	1
5	1	1	1

↑ Neftchi Baku goals · most likely 1–1 (12.6%)

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Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

27%

Away Win

26%

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS Yes 40% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

19%

1.5

81%

44%

2.5

56%

66%

3.5

34%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

27%

Away Win

26%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

65% Home (No Draw) 35% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

26% Home Win by 2+ 11% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

47% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals 26% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

19%

1.5

81%

44%

2.5

56%

66%

3.5

34%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS Yes 40% BTTS No

Exact Goals

13%

24%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.7%	5.0%	4.0%	1.6%	0.5%
1	7.6%	12.6%	6.9%	2.8%	0.9%
2	7.8%	9.6%	5.9%	2.4%	0.8%
3	4.5%	5.6%	3.4%	1.4%	0.4%
4	2.0%	2.4%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

50%

1.5

50%

78%

2.5

22%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

29%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Neftchi Baku	Draw	Dinamo Minsk
Neftchi Baku	29.7%	4.5%	1.8%
Draw	16.3%	15.9%	9.9%
Dinamo Minsk	2.7%	4.4%	14.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

49%

1.5

51%

76%

2.5

24%

91%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

29%

36%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Minsk

1 Neftchi Baku Wins

0 Draws

0 Dinamo Minsk Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
30 Jul 2026	Dinamo Minsk	0 - 1	Neftchi Baku

Neftchi Baku — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Qabala	W	0 - 3
11 Sep	A Mil-Muğan	W	2 - 3
05 Sep	H Safa Baku	W	4 - 1
30 Aug	A Zira	L	1 - 0
23 Aug	H Araz	W	5 - 0

Dinamo Minsk — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Bate Borisov	W	2 - 0
13 Sep	H Dinamo Brest	L	0 - 1
06 Sep	A ML Vitebsk	D	0 - 0
02 Sep	H Naftan	W	5 - 1
29 Aug	H Baranovichi	L	0 - 1

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Neftchi Baku

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Yuri Vernidub

1 Balayev

24 Seck

5 Igor

55 Gravillon

77 Sacko

8 Mahmudov

6 D'Almeida

20 Klismahn

11 Faraj

29 Tupta

33 Almeida

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Emil Balayev	G
77	Falaye Sacko	D
55	Andreaw Gravillon	D
5	Igor	D
24	Moustapha Seck	D
20	Gustavo Klismahn	M
6	Sessi D'Almeida	M
8	Emin Mahmudov	M
33	Breno Almeida	M
29	Lubomir Tupta	F
11	Imad Faraj	M

Substitutes

93	Rza Cəfərov	G
3	Rüfat Abbasov	M
7	Emil Safarov	M
18	Ifeanyi Mathew	M
97	Bassala Sambou	F
13	Kenan Pirić	G
14	Elvin Badalov	D
17	Murad Khachayev	D
80	Aslan Shirinov	D
82	Mahammad Mammadli	D
4	Elvin Camalov	M
91	Agadadas Salyanskiy	F

Dinamo Minsk

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Aleksandr Shagoyko

1 Shimakovich

25 Toure

26 Kalinin

12 Ivanov

44 Gurban

42 Abdullahi

8 Selyava

23 Zhechko

7 Malashevich

10 Vardanyan

30 Djimet

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Ivan Shimakovich	G
44	Gleb Gurban	D
12	Aleksey Ivanov	D
26	Vladislav Kalinin	D
25	Abdoul Aziz Toure	D
23	Aleksey Zhechko	M
8	Aleksandr Selyava	M
42	Fawaz Abdullahi	M
30	Moustapha Djimet	F
10	Karen Vardanyan	F
7	Yevgeniy Malashevich	M

Substitutes

78	Artem Sokolovskiy	M
11	Gulzhigit Alykulov	M
80	Leonard Chatelin Gweth	F
24	Aleksey Vakulich	D
21	Danila Radkevich	G
3	Maksim Shvetsov	D
27	Mikhail Aleksandrov	D
2	Matsvei Dubatouka	D
5	Daniil Dushevskiy	M
13	Vladislav Poloz	M
19	Rayan-Elie Guibero	M
9	Andrei Lutskovich	F