Ilves vs Lahti Prediction

Veikkausliiga · Regular Season - 17

Post on X

Lahti

Away

AI call Ilves or draw

39%

28%

33%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Ilves vs Lahti prediction: Sportiko gives Ilves a 39% chance of winning, Lahti 33% and the draw 28%. Last updated 26 Jul 2026, 13:57.

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1st Half Draw or Away 75%

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Timeline

J. Kanga

37' ⚽ 1–0

Y. Raap Yellow Card

45+1' ▮

HT 1–0

Y. Raap ⇄ J. Kilo

46' ⇄

⇄ 46'

M. Sarr ⇄ A. Belabid

⇄ 59'

R. Yapi ⇄ E. Andersson

⇄ 59'

⇄ D. Heikkinen

M. Rale

74' ⇄

T. Hytönen ⇄ T. Miettunen

74' ⇄

O. Multala

74' ⇄

⇄ 77'

Martim Ferreira

▮ 80'

Yellow Card

▮ 80'

A. Belabid Yellow Card

⇄ 83'

⇄ A. Lindholm

J. Kanga

85' ⇄

FT 1–0

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Confidence Low (39%)

At a glance

Our lean

Ilves or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.9%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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Ilves

LLWWL

Lahti

WLWWW

Match summary

In this Veikkausliiga clash, Ilves will face Lahti, bringing together two teams with contrasting recent form. Ilves has shown a solid home performance, averaging 1.5 goals per game this season, while Lahti's away form has been shaky, conceding 1.8 goals per game. The key matchup will likely be Ilves's attacking prowess against Lahti's defensive struggles. If Ilves can capitalize on their scoring opportunities early, they could assert control and secure the victory. However, Lahti will need to tighten their defense to stand a chance.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

39%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

33%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lahti goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	9	6	2	1
1	10	15	8	3	1
2	7	8	5	2	1
3	3	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Ilves goals · most likely 1–1 (14.9%)

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Players in form

Ilves

T. Hytönen 4 gls

J. Kanga 4 gls

M. Stjopin 2 gls

Lahti

Martim Ferreira 2 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

39%

Away Win

33%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

39%

Away Win

33%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

52% Home (No Draw) 48% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

16% Home Win by 2+ 14% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

35% Home Scores More 33% Away Scores More 32% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.3%	9.3%	6.3%	2.4%	0.7%
1	9.8%	14.9%	7.6%	2.9%	0.8%
2	6.9%	7.9%	4.6%	1.8%	0.5%
3	2.8%	3.2%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.8%	1.0%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

66%

1.5

34%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

32%

34%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Ilves	Draw	Lahti
Ilves	20.3%	3.5%	1.1%
Draw	14.2%	20.4%	10.5%
Lahti	2.1%	5.4%	22.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

32%

36%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Ilves vs Lahti

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Ilves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Aug	A HNK Rijeka	L	1 - 0
02 Aug	A AC Oulu	L	1 - 0
30 Jul	H Stjarnan	W	1 - 0
26 Jul	H Lahti	W	1 - 0
23 Jul	A Stjarnan	L	1 - 0

Lahti — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H FF Jaro	W	2 - 0
26 Jul	A Ilves	L	1 - 0
20 Jul	A Mariehamn	W	0 - 2
11 Jul	H HJK Helsinki	W	2 - 0
04 Jul	H Gnistan	W	1 - 0

Veikkausliiga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	18	11	6	1	33	16	+17	39
2	Inter Turku	18	9	7	2	25	14	+11	34
3	AC Oulu	18	9	3	6	22	21	+1	30
4	Gnistan	19	8	5	6	29	24	+5	29
5	HJK Helsinki	18	8	4	6	28	23	+5	28
6	VPS	18	7	6	5	24	17	+7	27
7	Lahti	18	7	4	7	22	16	+6	25
8	Turku PS	18	7	4	7	23	20	+3	25
9	Ilves	18	6	4	8	29	31	-2	22
10	SJK	19	4	6	9	24	29	-5	18
11	FF Jaro	18	3	6	9	17	35	-18	15
12	Mariehamn	18	0	5	13	9	39	-30	5

Ilves

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Joni Lehtonen

12 Krkalić

3 Rale

5 Väisänen

24 Kumpu

13 Wallius

14 Popovitch

6 Raap

22 Multala

17 Baranov

9 Hytönen

30 Kanga

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	Faris Krkalić	G
13	Kalle Wallius	M
24	Ville Kumpu	D
5	Sauli Väisänen	D
3	Matias Rale	D
22	Oskari Multala	M
6	Yiandro Raap	D
14	Anton Popovitch	M
30	Jardell Kanga	M
9	Teemu Hytönen	F
17	Stanislav Baranov	M

Substitutes

28	Jesse Kilo	M
1	Otso Virtanen	G
25	Sebastian Suvanne	D
4	Oliver Pettersson	D
16	Tatu Miettunen	D
19	Bamba Abdoul Goudouss	D
15	Lauri Ala-Myllymäki	M
20	Otto Tiitinen	M
10	Roope Riski	F

Lahti

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Goncalo Pereira

31 Maukonen

3 Sans

5 Dantas

4 Müller

27 Yapi

10 Koskinen

18 Cassubie

8 Montiel

11 Ferreira

19 Barbosa

77 Sarr

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
31	Osku Maukonen	G
27	Romaric Yapi	D
4	José Müller	D
5	Nicolas Gianini Dantas	D
3	Romain Sans	D
8	Tòfol Montiel	M
18	Yohan Cassubie	M
10	Otso Koskinen	M
77	Momodou Sarr	F
19	Neemias Barbosa	F
11	Martim Ferreira	F

Substitutes

17	Amir Belabid	F
7	Daniel Heikkinen	M
14	Erik Andersson	M
12	Aatu Hakala	G
25	Topias Inkinen	D
6	Väinö Vehkonen	D
20	Justus Ojanen	M
28	Armend Kabashi	M
9	Aaron Lindholm	F