Paide vs Zira Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

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Zira

Away

AI call Difficult Zira win or draw

16%

22%

62%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Paide vs Zira prediction: Sportiko gives Paide a 16% chance of winning, Zira 62% and the draw 22%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 17:51.

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Home to Score 73%
1st Half Draw or Away 74%

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Match Report

Paide secured a narrow 1–0 victory over Zira in their UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round encounter, with the decisive moment arriving late in the game. The first half was a cautious, goalless affair, with neither side able to break the deadlock before the interval.

The second half brought increased activity, with both teams making multiple substitutions as the match entered its final stages. Discipline was also a factor, with yellow cards shown in the 36th, 62nd, and 76th minutes across the two sides. Despite the tactical reshuffling, the game remained tight until the 87th minute, when Paide finally found the breakthrough with a late goal to settle the tie.

The result was a surprise given the pre-match analysis — our AI model had rated a Zira win as the most likely outcome at 62%, a call that ultimately proved wide of the mark. Paide's resilience and clinical finishing in the closing moments earned them a valuable first-leg advantage heading into the second leg.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Yellow Card

36' ▮

HT 0–0

⇄ 60'

Yellow Card

62' ▮

⇄ 75'

▮ 76'

Yellow Card

77' ⇄

78' ⇄

86' ⇄

87' ⚽ 1–0

FT 1–0

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Confidence Medium (62%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Zira win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.5%

Both teams to score

58%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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Paide

WWLWL

Zira

LDLWW

Last 1 meetings Paide · 0W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the UEFA Europa Conference League clash between Paide and Zira, both teams will aim to secure an early advantage in the group stage. Paide has shown resilience in recent matches, with a solid defensive setup and a midfield that can control the tempo. Zira, on the other hand, will look to exploit counter-attacking opportunities, leveraging their pace up front. Key to the match will be set-piece efficiency, as both sides have historically struggled to defend dead-ball situations. The outcome could hinge on which team can capitalize on their chances more effectively.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Zira goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	7	7	3	1
1	6	13	9	4	2
2	5	8	6	3	1
3	2	3	3	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Paide goals · most likely 1–1 (13.5%)

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Match Result

Away Win

62%

Draw

22%

Home Win

16%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS Yes 42% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

62%

Draw

22%

Home Win

16%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

55% Away (No Draw) 45% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Away Win by 2+ 15% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

40% Away Scores More 32% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS Yes 42% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

22%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.6%	7.5%	6.7%	3.3%	1.2%
1	6.5%	13.5%	8.9%	4.4%	1.6%
2	5.3%	7.9%	5.9%	2.9%	1.1%
3	2.3%	3.5%	2.6%	1.3%	0.5%
4	0.8%	1.1%	0.9%	0.4%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Paide	Draw	Zira
Paide	19.1%	4.7%	2.4%
Draw	11.9%	17.1%	14.4%
Zira	2.0%	4.5%	23.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

56%

1.5

44%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Paide vs Zira

0 Paide Wins

1 Draws

0 Zira Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
30 Jul 2026	Zira	1 - 1	Paide

Paide — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Nõmme United	W	1 - 3
16 Sep	H Vaprus	W	2 - 0
13 Sep	H Laagri	L	1 - 2
09 Sep	A Tammeka	W	0 - 2
06 Sep	H FC Levadia Tallinn	L	0 - 2

Zira — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Turan	L	1 - 0
13 Sep	H Qarabag	D	1 - 1
05 Sep	A Sabah FA	L	5 - 0
30 Aug	H Neftchi Baku	W	1 - 0
22 Aug	H Mil-Muğan	W	1 - 0

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.