Dinamo Tbilisi vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

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FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Away

AI call Dinamo Tbilisi or draw

41%

30%

29%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Dinamo Tbilisi vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius prediction: Sportiko gives Dinamo Tbilisi a 41% chance of winning, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 29% and the draw 30%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 18:53.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 72%
1st Half Home or Draw 72%
Home to Score 70%

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Match Report

Dinamo Tbilisi produced a commanding first-half display to secure a convincing 3–0 victory over FK Zalgiris Vilnius in the UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round. The Georgian side were ruthless in the opening period, striking three times before the break through goals in the 14th, 26th, and 30th minutes to put the tie beyond any doubt well before half-time.

The second half was a far quieter affair, with Zalgiris unable to find a way back into the contest and Dinamo content to manage the result. Both sides made a series of substitutions after the hour mark, and three yellow cards were distributed across the match — two before the break and one in the 74th minute — though neither team was reduced to ten men.

The result represents a significant statement from Dinamo Tbilisi, who controlled proceedings from start to finish on home soil. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Dinamo win as the most likely outcome at 41%, a call that proved correct. Zalgiris will need a dramatic turnaround in the second leg to advance.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

14' ⚽ 1–0

26' ⚽ 2–0

30' ⚽ 3–0

▮ 36'

Yellow Card

▮ 44'

Yellow Card

HT 3–0

63' ⇄

⇄ 68'

68' ⇄

▮ 74'

Yellow Card

⇄ 79'

80' ⇄

⇄ 90'

FT 3–0

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Confidence Low (41%)

At a glance

Our lean

Dinamo Tbilisi or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 15%

Both teams to score

48%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

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Dinamo Tbilisi

WWDDW

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

LWDWL

Last 1 meetings Dinamo Tbilisi · 0W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the UEFA Europa Conference League clash, Dinamo Tbilisi faces FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Both teams are known for their solid defensive structures, with Dinamo averaging 1.2 goals conceded per match in their last five fixtures, while Zalgiris has maintained a slightly better record at 1.0 goals conceded. Offensively, Dinamo has shown efficiency, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per game, compared to Zalgiris's 1.3. The match may hinge on set-pieces and midfield control, as both teams excel in these areas. Overall, it promises to be a closely contested encounter.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

41%

10%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

29%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	9	6	2	1
1	10	15	7	3	1
2	7	8	4	2
3	3	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Dinamo Tbilisi goals · most likely 1–1 (15.0%)

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

30%

Away Win

29%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

31%

1.5

69%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

30%

Away Win

29%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

54% Home (No Draw) 46% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

17% Home Win by 2+ 13% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

37% Home Scores More 32% Equal Goals 31% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

31%

1.5

69%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

20%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.8%	9.2%	6.0%	2.2%	0.6%
1	10.4%	15.0%	7.2%	2.6%	0.7%
2	7.4%	8.0%	4.4%	1.6%	0.4%
3	3.0%	3.2%	1.8%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.9%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

74%

1.5

26%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

39%

34%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Dinamo Tbilisi	Draw	FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Dinamo Tbilisi	18.4%	3.3%	1.1%
Draw	17.2%	20.9%	11.5%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	2.5%	5.4%	19.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

82%

1.5

18%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

34%

37%

20%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Dinamo Tbilisi vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0 Dinamo Tbilisi Wins

0 Draws

1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
30 Jul 2026	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	7 - 2	Dinamo Tbilisi

Dinamo Tbilisi — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Samgurali	W	2 - 3
14 Sep	H Gagra	W	4 - 0
10 Sep	H Meshakhte	D	0 - 0
06 Sep	A Torpedo Kutaisi	D	1 - 1
31 Aug	H Dila	W	2 - 1

FK Zalgiris Vilnius — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A TransINVEST Vilnius	L	3 - 0
16 Sep	H Kauno Žalgiris	W	3 - 2
13 Sep	A Suduva Marijampole	D	0 - 0
06 Sep	H Šiauliai	W	1 - 0
30 Aug	A Panevėžys	L	2 - 0

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Andrius Skerla

12 Sarkauskas

21 Franke

15 Bosančić

4 Lupano

18 Šešplaukis

77 Kendysh

20 Lytvynenko

70 Teixeira

19 Bilenkyi

10 Golubickas

11 Petković

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	Vincentas Sarkauskas	G
18	Deividas Šešplaukis	M
4	Danny Koy Lupano	D
15	Petar Bosančić	D
21	Dominik Franke	D
20	Ivan Lytvynenko	M
77	Yuri Kendysh	D
10	Paulius Golubickas	M
19	Stanislav Bilenkyi	F
70	Bryan Silva Teixeira	M
11	Nikola Petković	F

Substitutes

27	Matas Vareika	M
1	Carlos Olses	G
5	Grigore Turda	D
13	Klaudijus Upstas	D
14	Martynas Setkus	D
23	Saba Mamatsashvili	D
6	Marko Capan	M
7	Nemanja Mihajlović	M
9	Gustas Jarusevicius	M
22	Ovidijus Verbickas	M
29	Kajus Bička	M
8	Liviu Antal	F

Dinamo Tbilisi

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Vladimer Kakashvili

1 Loria

3 Kalandadze

4 Ugrekhelidze

27 Kurdić

17 Psaltis

22 Ninua

24 Osei

18 Kvaratskhelia

14 Couto

6 Santos

12 Bah

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Giorgi Loria	G
17	Paris Psaltis	D
27	Numan Kurdić	D
4	Nikoloz Ugrekhelidze	D
3	Aleksandre Kalandadze	D
24	Barnes Osei	M
22	Nika Ninua	M
6	Léo Santos	D
14	Maxime Do Couto	M
18	Tornike Kvaratskhelia	F
12	Algassime Bah	F

Substitutes

39	Koba Kakashvili	M
37	Mikheil Makatsaria	G
31	Levan Kharabadze	D
16	Nikoloz Tkalia	M
23	Jaba Kankava	M
26	Gabriel Gogua	M
32	Luka Tsikolia	M
33	Lyes Houri	M
11	Mate Vatsadze	F
21	Daniel Kvartskhava	F
28	Rati Aleksidze	F
29	Reziko Danelia	F