HNK Rijeka vs Derry City Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

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Derry City

Away

AI call HNK Rijeka to win

79%

15%

Home Win Draw Away Win

HNK Rijeka vs Derry City prediction: Sportiko gives HNK Rijeka a 79% chance of winning, Derry City 6% and the draw 15%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 20:39.

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Match Report

HNK Rijeka secured a narrow but deserved 1–0 victory over Derry City in the first leg of their UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round tie. The opening half was goalless and largely uneventful, with a yellow card the only notable incident before the break.

Rijeka broke the deadlock seven minutes into the second half when Toni Fruk converted to give the Croatian side the advantage. Derry responded by making a triple substitution on the hour mark, introducing Liam Boyce among others in an attempt to find an equaliser, with further changes following as the game progressed. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Rijeka win as the most likely outcome at 79%, a call that proved accurate. Despite the flurry of late activity from the visitors, including the introductions of Brooklyn Lyons-Foster and James Olayinka, Derry could not find a way through.

Fruk was withdrawn in stoppage time, having done his job, as Rijeka managed the closing stages comfortably. The Croatian hosts now hold a one-goal advantage heading into the second leg.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Yellow Card

7' ▮

HT 0–0

Toni Fruk

52' ⚽ 1–0

Yellow Card

60' ▮

⇄ 62'

Liam Boyce ⇄ James Clarke

⇄ 62'

⇄ Adam O'Reilly

⇄ 62'

⇄ Cameron Dummigan

69' ⇄

⇄ 75'

Brooklyn Lyons-Foster ⇄ Conor Barr

79' ⇄

⇄ 80'

James Olayinka

Toni Fruk

90+1' ⇄

FT 1–0

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Confidence High (79%)

At a glance

Our lean

HNK Rijeka to win

Most likely score

2:0 · 16.9%

Both teams to score

33%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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HNK Rijeka

WWDWD

Derry City

WDWWD

Last 1 meetings HNK Rijeka · 1W 0D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League clash, HNK Rijeka faces Derry City. Rijeka has demonstrated a solid home record in European competitions, with a strong emphasis on possession and attacking football, averaging 1.8 goals per match in their last five home fixtures. Conversely, Derry City will rely on their disciplined defensive structure, having conceded just 0.8 goals per away game in recent matches. The outcome may hinge on Rijeka's ability to break down Derry's defense while Derry seeks opportunities on the counter-attack. This matchup promises to be a test of tactical execution and efficiency in front of goal.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Derry City goals →

	0	1	2
0	10	3	1
1	17	10	2
2	17	8	2
3	11	5	1
4	5	2	1
5	2	1

↑ HNK Rijeka goals · most likely 2–0 (16.9%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

79%

Draw

15%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

67% BTTS No 33% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

31%

1.5

69%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

79%

Draw

15%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

90% Home (No Draw) 10% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

44% Home Win by 2+ 2% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

70% Home Scores More 22% Equal Goals 7% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

31%

1.5

69%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

67% BTTS No 33% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

20%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.5%	3.4%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%
1	16.7%	9.7%	2.1%	0.3%	0.0%
2	16.9%	8.1%	2.0%	0.3%	0.0%
3	10.7%	5.2%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%
4	5.1%	2.4%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

35%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

33%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	HNK Rijeka	Draw	Derry City
HNK Rijeka	45.8%	2.5%	0.4%
Draw	24.1%	15.8%	3.9%
Derry City	1.7%	2.2%	3.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

44%

1.5

56%

71%

2.5

29%

89%

3.5

11%

Home Exact Goals

15%

29%

27%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

71%

1.5

29%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

99%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

62%

30%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

83%

0.5

17%

98%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

75%

0.5

25%

97%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: HNK Rijeka vs Derry City

1 HNK Rijeka Wins

0 Draws

0 Derry City Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
30 Jul 2026	Derry City	0 - 1	HNK Rijeka

HNK Rijeka — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H HNK Hajduk Split	W	3 - 0
16 Sep	A Vrbovec	W	0 - 6
12 Sep	A NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	D	1 - 1
05 Sep	H NK Osijek	W	4 - 1
31 Aug	A HNK Gorica	D	0 - 0

Derry City — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Galway United	W	1 - 0
14 Sep	A Waterford	D	2 - 2
11 Sep	A Shelbourne	W	0 - 1
06 Sep	H Dundalk	W	4 - 2
30 Aug	H Shamrock Rovers	D	3 - 3

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

HNK Rijeka

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: David Pagou

99 Todorović

34 Devetak

5 Barco

45 Majstorović

22 Oreč

26 Dantas

6 Pavić

4 Janković

10 Fruk

14 Gojak

18 Adu-Adjei

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
99	Aleksa Todorović	G
22	Ante Oreč	D
45	Ante Majstorović	D
5	Alfonso Barco	M
34	Mladen Devetak	D
6	Branko Pavić	M
26	Tiago Dantas	M
14	Amer Gojak	M
10	Toni Fruk	M
4	Niko Janković	M
18	Daniel Adu-Adjei	F

Substitutes

77	Ante Matej Jurić	F
11	Gabriel Rukavina	M
1	Vito Kovač	G
31	Dávid Nwolokor	G
3	Moreno Živković	D
23	Justas Lasickas	D
51	Anel Husić	D
91	Noel Bodetić	D
19	Samuele Vignato	M
30	Simon Cletus Karshe	M
15	Goran Grulović	F
37	Cherno Saho	F

Derry City

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Tiernan Lynch

1 Maher

19 Fleming

3 McClean

4 Stott

24 Lyons-Foster

17 Twisk

7 Duffy

14 Chapman

28 Olayinka

2 Cotter

27 Boyce

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Brian Maher	G
24	Brooklyn Lyons-Foster	D
4	Jamie Stott	D
3	Patrick McClean	D
19	Brandon Fleming	M
17	Nick Twisk	M
2	Barry Cotter	M
28	James Olayinka	M
14	Ellis Chapman	M
7	Michael Duffy	M
27	Liam Boyce	F

Substitutes

23	Cameron Dummigan	D
8	Adam O'Reilly	M
15	James Clarke	M
22	Conor Barr	D
12	Darragh Burns	M
13	Tom Norcott	G
6	Robert Slevin	D
25	Christy Grogan	D
16	James McClean	M
35	Liam Kelly	F
32	Terence Doherty	F