Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

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FK Tobol Kostanay

Away

AI call FK Tobol Kostanay or draw

33%

29%

38%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay prediction: Sportiko gives Panevėžys a 33% chance of winning, FK Tobol Kostanay 38% and the draw 29%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 17:25.

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Home to Score 74%
2nd Half Over 0.5 73%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%

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Match Report

Panevėžys and FK Tobol Kostanay played out a 1–1 draw in their UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round first leg, with the Lithuanian side leading at the break before the Kazakhstani visitors levelled late on.

Panevėžys took the lead just before half-time, scoring on 45 minutes to head into the interval with a slender advantage. The match was a fractious affair, with five yellow cards distributed across both teams before the hour mark. Tobol were handed a golden opportunity to equalise when they were awarded a penalty on 60 minutes, but the spot-kick was missed, leaving Panevėžys in front. The visitors continued to press and were eventually rewarded when they found an equaliser on 84 minutes, cancelling out the home side's lead and ensuring the tie remains finely balanced ahead of the second leg.

Both managers made heavy use of their substitutes in the second half, with a combined eight changes shaping the closing stages. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Tobol win as the most likely outcome at 38%, a call that looks well-founded given the visitors' resilient performance on the road.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Yellow Card

22' ▮

▮ 35'

Yellow Card

⇄ 41'

45' ⚽ 1–0

Yellow Card

45+2' ▮

HT 1–0

⇄ 46'

Yellow Card

58' ▮

✗ 60'

Missed Penalty

Yellow Card

63' ▮

71' ⇄

⇄ 72'

77' ⇄

⚽ 1–1 84'

▮ 86'

Yellow Card

⇄ 86'

88' ⇄

FT 1–1

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Confidence Low (38%)

At a glance

Our lean

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.5%

Both teams to score

52%

Over 2.5 goals

45%

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Panevėžys

LWWWL

FK Tobol Kostanay

LWWLW

Last 1 meetings Panevėžys · 0W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the UEFA Europa Conference League clash between Panevėžys and FK Tobol Kostanay, both teams will aim to secure a crucial victory. Panevėžys has shown solid form in recent domestic matches, with a strong defensive record, conceding only 1 goal in their last 5 games. Conversely, FK Tobol Kostanay has been inconsistent, struggling to find the back of the net in key fixtures. The outcome may hinge on Panevėžys' ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, while Tobol will need to improve their offensive efficiency to challenge effectively. Overall, this match promises to be a tactical battle with potential implications for both teams' aspirations in the tournament.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FK Tobol Kostanay goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	8	5	2	1
1	10	15	7	3	1
2	8	9	5	2	1
3	3	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Panevėžys goals · most likely 1–1 (14.5%)

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Match Result

Away Win

38%

Home Win

33%

Draw

29%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

55%

2.5

45%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

38%

Home Win

33%

Draw

29%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

58% Home (No Draw) 42% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

19% Home Win by 2+ 12% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

40% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals 29% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

55%

2.5

45%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.2%	7.8%	5.3%	2.0%	0.6%
1	9.8%	14.5%	7.2%	2.7%	0.8%
2	7.7%	8.7%	4.9%	1.8%	0.5%
3	3.5%	3.9%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.2%	1.3%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Panevėžys	Draw	FK Tobol Kostanay
Panevėžys	24.3%	4.4%	1.7%
Draw	15.2%	19.5%	11.8%
FK Tobol Kostanay	2.0%	4.3%	16.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay

0 Panevėžys Wins

1 Draws

0 FK Tobol Kostanay Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
30 Jul 2026	FK Tobol Kostanay	1 - 1	Panevėžys

Panevėžys — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
13 Sep	H Kauno Žalgiris	L	0 - 1
07 Sep	A Hegelmann Litauen	W	1 - 3
03 Sep	A Banga	W	0 - 3
30 Aug	H FK Zalgiris Vilnius	W	2 - 0
23 Aug	A Suduva Marijampole	L	2 - 0

FK Tobol Kostanay — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
17 Sep	H Yelimay Semey	L	0 - 2
13 Sep	A Kairat Almaty	W	1 - 4
06 Sep	H Ulytau	W	3 - 1
30 Aug	A Kaspiy	L	1 - 0
25 Aug	H Kaisar	W	3 - 2

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Panevėžys

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Toni Korkeakunnas

1 Černiauskas

66 Balsys

13 Kerkez

33 Keita

28 Burdzilauskas

34 Asante

6 Ramanauskas

77 Bizoza

24 Petkevičius

27 Asamoah

79 Paulauskas

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Vytautas Černiauskas	G
28	Ernestas Burdzilauskas	F
33	Seydina Keita	D
13	Strahinja Kerkez	D
66	Dovydas Balsys	D
77	Parfait Bizoza	M
6	Matas Ramanauskas	M
34	Isaac Asante	M
79	Valdas Paulauskas	M
27	Kwadwo Asamoah	M
24	Nauris Petkevičius	F

Substitutes

12	Liudvikas Valius	G
22	Arijus Brazinskas	G
5	Miano van den Bos	D
15	Justinas Janusevskis	D
25	Ignas Lukosevicius	D
95	Joël Bopesu	D
8	Salomon Kouadio	M
17	Oleksandr Kurtsev	M
80	Elivelto Ribeiro Dantas	M
16	Marko Bačanin	F

FK Tobol Kostanay

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Miroslav Romashchenko

1 Busurmanov

25 Boršić

72 Senhadji

4 Cavnić

21 Zhagorov

6 Myakish

8 Tagybergen

30 Guerra

19 Zhumat

10 Chesnokov

18 Milovanović

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Sultan Busurmanov	G
21	Nauryzbek Zhagorov	M
4	Nemanja Cavnić	D
72	Rayan Senhadji	D
25	Antonio Boršić	D
8	Askhat Tagybergen	M
6	Maksim Myakish	M
10	Islam Chesnokov	M
19	Dauren Zhumat	F
30	Luis Guerra	M
18	Uroš Milovanović	F

Substitutes

44	Danil Ustimenko	G
35	Yuriy Melikhov	G
3	Roman Asrankulov	D
5	Pape Alioune Ndiaye	D
22	Aleksandr Marochkin	D
14	Amine Talal	M
17	Aleksander Zuev	M
56	Emin Mussayev	M
57	Azamat Zinadin	M