Spain vs Argentina Prediction

World Cup · Final

Post on X

Argentina

Away

AI call Argentina or draw

34%

28%

38%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Spain vs Argentina prediction: Sportiko gives Spain a 34% chance of winning, Argentina 38% and the draw 28%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Home to Score 76%
1st Half Draw or Away 73%

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Match Report

Spain claimed the World Cup title with a 1–0 victory over Argentina in a final that was tightly contested in the opening half before the match turned decisively in Spain's favour. A first-half yellow card for Lisandro Martínez, who was subsequently substituted before the interval, disrupted Argentina's defensive shape early, and Leandro Paredes followed with a booking of his own shortly after the restart. The dismissal of Enzo Fernández in the 90th minute — receiving a second yellow card — left Argentina with ten men heading into extra time and effectively ended any realistic hope of a comeback.

Spain's dominance was overwhelming throughout, with 65% possession, 12 shots on target to Argentina's none, and an expected goals figure of 1.94 compared to a remarkably low 0.22 for the South American side. Ferran Torres settled the contest in the 106th minute, converting what proved to be the only goal of the match. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Argentina win as the least likely outcome at 38%, a call that proved correct.

Spain are World Champions, their patient, possession-based approach ultimately proving too much for an Argentina side that offered precious little going forward.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 41'

Lisandro Martínez Yellow Card

⇄ 44'

Lisandro Martínez ⇄ Nicolás Otamendi

HT 0–0

⇄ 46'

Nicolás González ⇄ Leandro Paredes

▮ 52'

Leandro Paredes Yellow Card

⇄ 58'

Gonzalo Montiel ⇄ Nahuel Molina

Mikel Oyarzabal ⇄ Ferran Torres

62' ⇄

Fabián Ruiz ⇄ Pedri

62' ⇄

⇄ 70'

Cristian Romero ⇄ Facundo Medina

⇄ 70'

Rodrigo De Paul ⇄ Giuliano Simeone

Alex Baena ⇄ Nico Williams

75' ⇄

Dani Olmo ⇄ Mikel Merino

75' ⇄

▮ 82'

Enzo Fernández Yellow Card

▮ 90+2'

Cristian Romero Yellow Card

▮ 90+3'

Enzo Fernández Yellow Card

▮ 90+3'

Enzo Fernández Red Card

Rodri ⇄ Martín Zubimendi

99' ⇄

Aymeric Laporte ⇄ Eric García

99' ⇄

⇄ 102'

Julián Alvarez ⇄ Marcos Senesi

▮ 104'

Yellow Card

Ferran Torres assist: Nico Williams

106' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 111'

Alexis Mac Allister Yellow Card

FT 1–0

Spain

Match Stats

Argentina

65% Ball Possession 35%

1.94 Expected Goals (xG) 0.22

20 Total Shots 2

12 Shots on Goal 0

5 Shots off Goal 1

3 Blocked Shots 1

9 Shots insidebox 1

11 Shots outsidebox 1

9 Corner Kicks 4

4 Offsides 1

21 Fouls 25

0 Yellow Cards 6

0 Red Cards 1

0 Goalkeeper Saves 11

852 Total passes 463

762 Passes accurate 357

89% Passes % 77%

1.81 goals_prevented 1.81

Spain

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
22 Pau Cubarsí D	8.3	120'	–	–	1	126 (121%)	2
16 Rodri M	8.3	99'	–	–	1	106 (101%)	4
20 Pedri M	7.5	58'	–	–	1	61 (57%)	2
7 Ferran Torres F	7.2	58'	1	–	3	8 (6%)	–
12 Pedro Porro D	7.2	120'	–	–	–	99 (90%)	2
6 Mikel Merino M	7.2	45'	–	–	1	22 (17%)	–
19 Lamine Yamal M	7.2	120'	–	–	3	51 (44%)	3
14 Aymeric Laporte D	7.0	99'	–	–	1	92 (85%)	–
18 Martín Zubimendi M	7.0	21'	–	–	–	26 (22%)	1
10 Dani Olmo M	7.0	75'	–	–	1	25 (21%)	–
24 Marc Cucurella D	6.9	120'	–	–	1	79 (69%)	1
8 Fabián Ruiz M	6.7	62'	–	–	–	50 (45%)	–
4 Eric García D	6.7	21'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	–
15 Alex Baena M	6.7	75'	–	–	1	21 (15%)	1
21 Mikel Oyarzabal F	6.6	62'	–	–	1	14 (11%)	1
17 Nico Williams F	6.6	45'	–	1	2	22 (21%)	–
23 Unai Simón G	6.5	120'	–	–	–	38 (27%)	–

Argentina

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Emiliano Martínez G	9.7	120'	–	–	–	53 (31%)	–
10 Lionel Messi F	7.3	120'	–	–	–	34 (27%)	1
13 Cristian Romero D	6.9	70'	–	–	–	40 (36%)	1
20 Alexis Mac Allister M	6.7	120'	–	–	–	30 (25%)	2
3 Nicolás Tagliafico D	6.7	120'	–	–	–	35 (26%)	3
15 Nicolás González M	6.7	45'	–	–	–	9 (5%)	–
4 Gonzalo Montiel D	6.6	58'	–	–	–	13 (8%)	1
6 Lisandro Martínez D	6.6	44'	–	–	–	29 (22%)	1
26 Nahuel Molina D	6.6	62'	–	–	–	26 (18%)	3
7 Rodrigo De Paul M	6.5	70'	–	–	–	29 (24%)	–
9 Julián Alvarez F	6.5	102'	–	–	–	16 (12%)	1
25 Facundo Medina D	6.3	50'	–	–	–	17 (15%)	1
19 Nicolás Otamendi D	6.3	76'	–	–	–	29 (23%)	–
17 Giuliano Simeone F	6.3	50'	–	–	1	18 (13%)	2
2 Marcos Senesi D	6.2	18'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	–
5 Leandro Paredes M	6.2	75'	–	–	–	42 (35%)	1
24 Enzo Fernández M	5.9	93'	–	–	–	36 (32%)	1

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Confidence Low (38%)

At a glance

Our lean

Argentina or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.2%

Both teams to score

60%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

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Spain

WWWWW

Argentina

LWWWW

Match summary

In this World Cup clash, Spain will face Argentina in what promises to be a tactical matchup. Spain's possession-based style, characterized by high passing accuracy and midfield control, will be tested against Argentina's explosive counter-attacking approach, driven by their star forwards. Both teams have shown strong defensive records, making goals likely to come from set pieces or individual brilliance. With key players on both sides capable of changing the game, the outcome will hinge on which team can impose their style more effectively in this neutral setting.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

34%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

38%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Argentina goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	7	6	3	1
1	6	13	9	4	2
2	6	8	6	3	1
3	3	4	3	1	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Spain goals · most likely 1–1 (13.2%)

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Players in form

Spain

Mikel Oyarzabal 5 gls

Argentina

L. Messi 8 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

38%

Home Win

34%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS Yes 40% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

84%

4.5

16%

93%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

38%

Home Win

34%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

52% Away (No Draw) 48% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

19% Away Win by 2+ 16% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

38% Away Scores More 34% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

84%

4.5

16%

93%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS Yes 40% BTTS No

Exact Goals

13%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	6.8%	6.1%	3.0%	1.1%
1	6.4%	13.2%	8.7%	4.3%	1.6%
2	5.6%	8.2%	6.1%	3.0%	1.1%
3	2.6%	3.9%	2.9%	1.4%	0.5%
4	0.9%	1.4%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

29%

32%

25%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

51%

1.5

49%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

29%

27%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Spain	Draw	Argentina
Spain	20.4%	4.6%	2.3%
Draw	12.8%	16.7%	13.5%
Argentina	2.2%	4.7%	22.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

76%

59%

1.5

41%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Spain vs Argentina

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Spain — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Jul	H Argentina	W	1 - 0
14 Jul	A France	W	0 - 2
10 Jul	H Belgium	W	2 - 1
06 Jul	A Portugal	W	0 - 1
02 Jul	H Austria	W	3 - 0

Argentina — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Jul	A Spain	L	1 - 0
15 Jul	A England	W	1 - 2
12 Jul	H Switzerland	W	3 - 1
07 Jul	H Egypt	W	3 - 2
03 Jul	H Cape Verde Islands	W	3 - 2

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Spain

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Luis de la Fuente

23 Simón

24 Cucurella

14 Laporte

22 Cubarsí

12 Porro

8 Ruiz

16 Rodri

15 Baena

10 Olmo

19 Yamal

21 Oyarzabal

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Unai Simón	G
12	Pedro Porro	D
22	Pau Cubarsí	D
14	Aymeric Laporte	D
24	Marc Cucurella	D
16	Rodri	M
8	Fabián Ruiz	M
19	Lamine Yamal	M
10	Dani Olmo	M
15	Alex Baena	M
21	Mikel Oyarzabal	F

Substitutes

20	Pedri	M
7	Ferran Torres	F
6	Mikel Merino	M
17	Nico Williams	F
4	Eric García	D
18	Martín Zubimendi	M
1	David Raya	G
13	Joan García	G
2	Marc Pubill	D
5	Marcos Llorente	M
3	Alejandro Grimaldo	D
9	Pablo Gavi	M
26	Borja Iglesias	F
25	Víctor Muñoz	F
11	Yéremy Pino	M

Argentina

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Lionel Scaloni

23 Martínez

3 Tagliafico

6 Martínez

13 Romero

4 Montiel

15 González

20 Allister

24 Fernández

7 Paul

9 Alvarez

10 Messi

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Emiliano Martínez	G
4	Gonzalo Montiel	D
13	Cristian Romero	D
6	Lisandro Martínez	D
3	Nicolás Tagliafico	D
7	Rodrigo De Paul	M
24	Enzo Fernández	M
20	Alexis Mac Allister	M
15	Nicolás González	M
10	Lionel Messi	F
9	Julián Alvarez	F

Substitutes

19	Nicolás Otamendi	D
5	Leandro Paredes	M
26	Nahuel Molina	D
25	Facundo Medina	D
17	Giuliano Simeone	F
2	Marcos Senesi	D
12	Gerónimo Rulli	G
1	Juan Musso	G
14	Exequiel Palacios	M
16	Thiago Almada	M
8	Valentín Barco	M
18	Nico Paz	F
11	Giovani Lo Celso	M
21	José Manuel López	F
22	Lautaro Martínez	F