France vs England Prediction

World Cup · 3rd Place Final

Post on X

England

Away

AI call France or draw

45%

30%

25%

Home Win Draw Away Win

France vs England prediction: Sportiko gives France a 45% chance of winning, England 25% and the draw 30%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Home to Score 76%
2nd Half Over 0.5 72%

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Match Report

England claimed third place at the World Cup with a dramatic 4-6 victory over France in a match that will be remembered for its extraordinary first half. Declan Rice opened the scoring inside three minutes, and England were ruthless from there, with Ezri Konsa and a Bukayo Saka brace — the second arriving in first-half stoppage time — sending the sides into the break at 0-4. Our pre-match AI model had rated a France win as the most likely outcome at 45%, a call that looked increasingly misplaced as the interval approached.

France responded with four half-time substitutions and were transformed after the break. Kylian Mbappé struck within two minutes of the restart, Bradley Barcola added a second on 54 minutes, and Mbappé's second goal on 66 minutes set up a tense finale at 2-4. Saka converted a penalty on 87 minutes to seemingly settle English nerves, only for Ousmane Dembélé to pull one back deep into stoppage time.

With the match in its final seconds, Jude Bellingham secured the result at 90+8 minutes, ending a frantic contest that finished 4-6. Both sides registered 19 total shots, though England's clinical finishing in the opening period ultimately proved the decisive factor.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 3'

Declan Rice

⚽ 0–2 18'

Ezri Konsa assist: Declan Rice

⚽ 0–3 37'

Bukayo Saka assist: Marcus Rashford

⚽ 0–4 45+1'

Bukayo Saka assist: Eberechi Eze

HT 0–4

Rayan Cherki ⇄ Ousmane Dembélé

46' ⇄

Désiré Doué ⇄ Bradley Barcola

46' ⇄

Theo Hernández ⇄ Lucas Digne

46' ⇄

Ibrahima Konaté ⇄ Dayot Upamecano

46' ⇄

⇄ 46'

Marcus Rashford ⇄ Ollie Watkins

Kylian Mbappé assist: Michael Olise

48' ⚽ 1–4

Bradley Barcola assist: Kylian Mbappé

54' ⚽ 2–4

Kylian Mbappé assist: Michael Olise

66' ⚽ 3–4

⇄ 79'

Ivan Toney ⇄ Elliot Anderson

⇄ 79'

Eberechi Eze ⇄ Jude Bellingham

⇄ 83'

Jarell Quansah ⇄ Reece James

⚽ 3–5 87'

Bukayo Saka Penalty

Malo Gusto ⇄ Jules Koundé

90+1' ⇄

⇄ 90+3'

Marc Guéhi ⇄ Trevoh Chalobah

Ousmane Dembélé assist: Dayot Upamecano

90+6' ⚽ 4–5

⚽ 4–6 90+8'

Jude Bellingham

FT 4–6

France

Match Stats

England

46% Ball Possession 54%

2.87 Expected Goals (xG) 2.58

19 Total Shots 19

9 Shots on Goal 11

6 Shots off Goal 2

4 Blocked Shots 6

12 Shots insidebox 16

7 Shots outsidebox 3

3 Corner Kicks 4

3 Offsides 3

14 Fouls 8

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

4 Goalkeeper Saves 5

445 Total passes 515

405 Passes accurate 467

91% Passes % 91%

0.05 goals_prevented 0.05

France

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Kylian Mbappé F	10.0	90'	2	1	6	32 (28%)	–
7 Ousmane Dembélé F	8.2	45'	1	–	2	28 (25%)	–
12 Bradley Barcola F	7.9	45'	1	–	1	12 (12%)	1
26 Maxence Lacroix D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	35 (34%)	1
11 Michael Olise M	7.0	90'	–	2	3	56 (49%)	5
18 Warren Zaïre-Emery M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	57 (54%)	–
4 Dayot Upamecano D	6.5	45'	–	1	1	13 (12%)	3
24 Rayan Cherki M	6.5	45'	–	–	1	29 (25%)	–
14 Adrien Rabiot M	6.3	90'	–	–	1	39 (37%)	2
3 Lucas Digne D	6.3	45'	–	–	–	18 (17%)	–
5 Jules Koundé D	6.2	8'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	–
16 Mike Maignan G	6.0	90'	–	–	–	12 (11%)	–
19 Theo Hernández D	5.9	45'	–	–	–	24 (20%)	–
20 Désiré Doué M	5.9	45'	–	–	–	20 (19%)	1
15 Ibrahima Konaté D	5.3	45'	–	–	–	23 (21%)	–
2 Malo Gusto D	5.3	89'	–	–	–	42 (36%)	3

England

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
4 Declan Rice M	9.3	90'	1	1	1	91 (87%)	7
7 Bukayo Saka M	9.3	90'	3	–	4	23 (18%)	3
10 Jude Bellingham M	8.3	11'	1	–	2	8 (5%)	–
2 Ezri Konsa D	7.3	90'	1	–	1	47 (45%)	2
21 Eberechi Eze M	7.3	79'	–	1	1	56 (56%)	–
6 Marc Guéhi D	7.2	89'	–	–	–	77 (72%)	2
13 Dean Henderson G	7.0	90'	–	–	–	37 (28%)	–
25 Djed Spence D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	37 (32%)	4
22 Ivan Toney F	6.9	79'	–	–	1	18 (14%)	2
11 Marcus Rashford M	6.9	45'	–	1	2	20 (18%)	–
24 Reece James D	6.7	16'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	1
17 Morgan Rogers M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	42 (38%)	1
8 Elliot Anderson M	6.3	11'	–	–	–	11 (11%)	1
26 Jarell Quansah D	6.2	83'	–	–	–	35 (32%)	1
19 Ollie Watkins F	6.2	45'	–	–	1	11 (9%)	1
12 Trevoh Chalobah D	—	1'	–	–	–	–	–

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Our lean

France or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.3%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

44%

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France

LLWWW

England

WLWWW

Match summary

In this World Cup matchup, France and England will clash in a highly anticipated encounter. Both teams boast deep talent pools, with France's attacking prowess led by Kylian Mbappé and England's counter-attacking strategy featuring Harry Kane. Historically, these sides have had closely contested matches, with recent encounters showing a balance in results. England's defensive solidity will be tested against France's dynamic forward line, while France must remain wary of England's set-pieces. The outcome will likely hinge on which side can impose their style and capitalize on key moments.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

45%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

25%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

England goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	7	5	2
1	11	14	6	2	1
2	9	9	5	2
3	4	4	2	1
4	1	2	1
5

↑ France goals · most likely 1–1 (14.3%)

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Players in form

France

Kylian Mbappé 10 gls

O. Dembélé 6 gls

B. Barcola 3 gls

England

J. Bellingham 7 gls

H. Kane 6 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

30%

Away Win

25%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

56%

2.5

44%

78%

3.5

22%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

30%

Away Win

25%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

64% Home (No Draw) 36% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

22% Home Win by 2+ 10% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals 25% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

56%

2.5

44%

78%

3.5

22%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.5%	7.3%	4.5%	1.5%	0.4%
1	10.9%	14.3%	6.4%	2.2%	0.5%
2	8.9%	9.0%	4.6%	1.5%	0.4%
3	4.2%	4.3%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.5%	1.5%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	France	Draw	England
France	27.2%	4.3%	1.4%
Draw	16.6%	19.5%	10.4%
England	2.1%	4.2%	14.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

59%

1.5

41%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

24%

34%

24%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

36%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: France vs England

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

France — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Jul	H England	L	4 - 6
14 Jul	H Spain	L	0 - 2
09 Jul	H Morocco	W	2 - 0
04 Jul	A Paraguay	W	0 - 1
30 Jun	H Sweden	W	3 - 0

England — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Jul	A France	W	4 - 6
15 Jul	H Argentina	L	1 - 2
11 Jul	A Norway	W	1 - 2
06 Jul	A Mexico	W	2 - 3
01 Jul	H Congo DR	W	2 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

France

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Didier Deschamps

16 Maignan

19 Hernández

26 Lacroix

15 Konaté

2 Gusto

14 Rabiot

18 Zaïre-Emery

20 Doué

24 Cherki

11 Olise

10 Mbappé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	Mike Maignan	G
2	Malo Gusto	D
15	Ibrahima Konaté	D
26	Maxence Lacroix	D
19	Theo Hernández	D
18	Warren Zaïre-Emery	M
14	Adrien Rabiot	M
11	Michael Olise	M
24	Rayan Cherki	M
20	Désiré Doué	M
10	Kylian Mbappé	F

Substitutes

4	Dayot Upamecano	D
3	Lucas Digne	D
7	Ousmane Dembélé	F
12	Bradley Barcola	F
5	Jules Koundé	D
23	Robin Risser	G
1	Brice Samba	G
21	Lucas Hernández	D
17	William Saliba	D
8	Aurélien Tchouaméni	M
25	Maghnes Akliouche	M
6	Manu Koné	M
13	N'Golo Kanté	M
22	Jean-Philippe Mateta	F
9	Marcus Thuram	F

England

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Thomas Tuchel

13 Henderson

25 Spence

6 Guéhi

2 Konsa

26 Quansah

4 Rice

11 Rashford

21 Eze

17 Rogers

7 Saka

22 Toney

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	Dean Henderson	G
26	Jarell Quansah	D
2	Ezri Konsa	D
6	Marc Guéhi	D
25	Djed Spence	D
4	Declan Rice	M
7	Bukayo Saka	M
17	Morgan Rogers	M
21	Eberechi Eze	M
11	Marcus Rashford	M
22	Ivan Toney	F

Substitutes

19	Ollie Watkins	F
8	Elliot Anderson	M
10	Jude Bellingham	M
24	Reece James	D
12	Trevoh Chalobah	D
23	James Trafford	G
1	Jordan Pickford	G
15	Dan Burn	D
5	John Stones	D
3	Nico O'Reilly	D
14	Jordan Henderson	M
18	Anthony Gordon	F
9	Harry Kane	F
20	Noni Madueke	F