England vs Argentina Prediction

World Cup · Semi-finals

Post on X

Argentina

Away

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

AI call Argentina or draw

25%

28%

47%

Home Win Draw Away Win

England vs Argentina prediction: Sportiko gives England a 25% chance of winning, Argentina 47% and the draw 28%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Draw or Away 75%
1st Half Over 0.5 70%

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Match Report

England's World Cup semi-final hopes were ended in dramatic fashion as Argentina came from behind to win 2–1 with two late goals. A tight, disciplined first half — punctuated by yellow cards for Elliot Anderson and Lisandro Martínez — ended goalless, with Argentina already controlling possession and territory.

Anthony Gordon broke the deadlock on 55 minutes to give England the lead, but the stats told a different story throughout: Argentina dominated with 65% possession, 15 total shots, and an expected goals figure of 1.80 compared to England's 0.54. Argentina's triple substitution on 72 minutes reshaped the contest, and Enzo Fernández levelled on 85 minutes before Lautaro Martínez sealed the comeback deep into stoppage time. England made late changes of their own, but could not restore parity.

Argentina advance to the World Cup final in a result that reflected their overall superiority across the 90 minutes. The pre-match AI model had rated an Argentina win as the most likely outcome at 47%, a call that proved correct. England will reflect on a spirited but ultimately insufficient showing against the reigning champions.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Elliot Anderson Yellow Card

37' ▮

▮ 42'

Lisandro Martínez Yellow Card

HT 0–0

▮ 51'

Cristian Romero Yellow Card

Anthony Gordon assist: Morgan Rogers

55' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 64'

Leandro Paredes ⇄ Nicolás González

Anthony Gordon ⇄ Ezri Konsa

72' ⇄

⇄ 72'

Giuliano Simeone ⇄ Rodrigo De Paul

⇄ 72'

Nahuel Molina ⇄ Gonzalo Montiel

⇄ 72'

Lisandro Martínez ⇄ Nicolás Otamendi

⇄ 81'

Nicolás Tagliafico ⇄ Lautaro Martínez

Reece James ⇄ Dan Burn

82' ⇄

Declan Rice ⇄ Nico O'Reilly

82' ⇄

⚽ 1–1 85'

Enzo Fernández assist: Lionel Messi

⚽ 1–2 90+2'

Lautaro Martínez assist: Lionel Messi

▮ 90+4'

Rodrigo De Paul Yellow Card

John Stones ⇄ Ivan Toney

90+6' ⇄

Djed Spence ⇄ Marcus Rashford

90+6' ⇄

FT 1–2

England

Match Stats

Argentina

35% Ball Possession 65%

0.54 Expected Goals (xG) 1.80

5 Total Shots 15

2 Shots on Goal 5

1 Shots off Goal 7

2 Blocked Shots 3

2 Shots insidebox 7

3 Shots outsidebox 8

1 Corner Kicks 6

1 Offsides 3

9 Fouls 15

1 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 1

310 Total passes 583

264 Passes accurate 532

85% Passes % 91%

0.02 goals_prevented 0.02

England

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Elliot Anderson M	7.2	98'	–	–	–	45 (39%)	3
4 Declan Rice M	7.2	82'	–	–	1	27 (23%)	2
17 Morgan Rogers M	7.2	98'	–	1	–	11 (11%)	1
18 Anthony Gordon M	6.9	72'	1	–	1	12 (9%)	–
5 John Stones D	6.7	96'	–	–	1	37 (37%)	1
24 Reece James D	6.6	82'	–	–	–	27 (24%)	1
10 Jude Bellingham M	6.6	98'	–	–	–	21 (19%)	1
25 Djed Spence D	6.6	96'	–	–	–	16 (14%)	5
6 Marc Guéhi D	6.5	98'	–	–	–	53 (52%)	–
9 Harry Kane F	6.3	98'	–	–	–	14 (9%)	–
1 Jordan Pickford G	6.2	98'	–	–	–	40 (22%)	–
3 Nico O'Reilly D	6.2	16'	–	–	–	–	–
15 Dan Burn D	6.2	16'	–	–	–	2	–
2 Ezri Konsa D	6.0	26'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
22 Ivan Toney F	—	2'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
11 Marcus Rashford F	—	2'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–

Argentina

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Lionel Messi F	8.3	98'	–	2	–	53 (42%)	1
24 Enzo Fernández M	7.6	98'	1	–	4	84 (82%)	2
5 Leandro Paredes M	7.2	64'	–	–	1	70 (68%)	4
13 Cristian Romero D	7.0	98'	–	–	–	53 (51%)	4
7 Rodrigo De Paul M	7.0	26'	–	–	–	27 (26%)	–
22 Lautaro Martínez F	7.0	17'	1	–	1	–	–
19 Nicolás Otamendi D	6.6	26'	–	–	–	17 (17%)	–
9 Julián Alvarez M	6.6	98'	–	–	3	40 (37%)	–
6 Lisandro Martínez D	6.5	72'	–	–	–	41 (40%)	–
23 Emiliano Martínez G	6.3	98'	–	–	–	21 (17%)	–
15 Nicolás González F	6.3	34'	–	–	1	13 (10%)	1
4 Gonzalo Montiel D	6.2	26'	–	–	–	13 (10%)	–
20 Alexis Mac Allister M	6.2	98'	–	–	2	38 (35%)	1
3 Nicolás Tagliafico D	6.2	81'	–	–	–	37 (33%)	2
26 Nahuel Molina D	6.2	72'	–	–	–	45 (39%)	2
17 Giuliano Simeone M	6.2	72'	–	–	–	31 (25%)	2

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Confidence Low (47%)

At a glance

Our lean

Argentina or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.1%

Both teams to score

57%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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England

WLWWW

Argentina

LWWWW

Match summary

In this highly anticipated World Cup clash, England faces Argentina, two footballing powerhouses with rich histories in international tournaments. England boasts a strong attacking lineup, highlighted by their recent scoring form, averaging 2.1 goals per match in the qualifiers. Argentina, however, counters with a solid defense and a midfield capable of controlling the game, emphasizing possession and tactical discipline. Both teams have shown resilience and adaptability in their respective paths to this stage, making this encounter a tactical battle likely to hinge on set pieces and counter-attacks. Expect a closely contested match as each side aims to assert dominance early on.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

25%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

47%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Argentina goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	8	5	2	1
1	5	13	10	5	2	1
2	4	7	6	3	1
3	2	3	2	1
4		1	1
5

↑ England goals · most likely 1–1 (13.1%)

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Players in form

England

J. Bellingham 7 gls

H. Kane 6 gls

Argentina

L. Messi 8 gls

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Match Result

Away Win

47%

Draw

28%

Home Win

25%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

47%

Draw

28%

Home Win

25%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

65% Away (No Draw) 35% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

26% Away Win by 2+ 11% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

47% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals 25% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

22%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5%	8.5%	8.3%	4.6%	1.9%
1	5.5%	13.1%	9.6%	5.3%	2.2%
2	4.0%	6.7%	5.6%	3.1%	1.3%
3	1.6%	2.6%	2.2%	1.2%	0.5%
4	0.5%	0.8%	0.6%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	England	Draw	Argentina
England	14.5%	4.4%	2.6%
Draw	9.8%	16.7%	16.8%
Argentina	1.7%	4.4%	29.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

51%

1.5

49%

77%

2.5

23%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

19%

32%

26%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: England vs Argentina

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

England — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Jul	A France	W	4 - 6
15 Jul	H Argentina	L	1 - 2
11 Jul	A Norway	W	1 - 2
06 Jul	A Mexico	W	2 - 3
01 Jul	H Congo DR	W	2 - 1

Argentina — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Jul	A Spain	L	1 - 0
15 Jul	A England	W	1 - 2
12 Jul	H Switzerland	W	3 - 1
07 Jul	H Egypt	W	3 - 2
03 Jul	H Cape Verde Islands	W	3 - 2

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

England

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Thomas Tuchel

1 Pickford

25 Spence

6 Guéhi

5 Stones

24 James

8 Anderson

4 Rice

18 Gordon

10 Bellingham

17 Rogers

9 Kane

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Jordan Pickford	G
24	Reece James	D
5	John Stones	D
6	Marc Guéhi	D
25	Djed Spence	D
4	Declan Rice	M
8	Elliot Anderson	M
17	Morgan Rogers	M
10	Jude Bellingham	M
18	Anthony Gordon	M
9	Harry Kane	F

Substitutes

23	James Trafford	G
13	Dean Henderson	G
3	Nico O'Reilly	D
2	Ezri Konsa	D
15	Dan Burn	D
12	Trevoh Chalobah	D
21	Eberechi Eze	M
14	Jordan Henderson	M
16	Kobbie Mainoo	M
7	Bukayo Saka	F
20	Noni Madueke	F
11	Marcus Rashford	F
22	Ivan Toney	F
19	Ollie Watkins	F

Argentina

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Lionel Scaloni

23 Martínez

3 Tagliafico

6 Martínez

13 Romero

26 Molina

5 Paredes

9 Alvarez

20 Allister

24 Fernández

17 Simeone

10 Messi

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Emiliano Martínez	G
26	Nahuel Molina	D
13	Cristian Romero	D
6	Lisandro Martínez	D
3	Nicolás Tagliafico	D
5	Leandro Paredes	M
17	Giuliano Simeone	M
24	Enzo Fernández	M
20	Alexis Mac Allister	M
9	Julián Alvarez	M
10	Lionel Messi	F

Substitutes

15	Nicolás González	F
1	Juan Musso	G
12	Gerónimo Rulli	G
25	Facundo Medina	D
19	Nicolás Otamendi	D
4	Gonzalo Montiel	D
2	Marcos Senesi	D
16	Thiago Almada	M
7	Rodrigo De Paul	M
11	Giovani Lo Celso	M
14	Exequiel Palacios	M
18	Nico Paz	F
8	Valentín Barco	M
22	Lautaro Martínez	F
21	José Manuel López	F