HJK Helsinki vs VPS Prediction

Veikkausliiga · Regular Season - 16

Post on X

VPS

Away

Bolt Arena, Helsinki

AI call HJK Helsinki or draw

38%

29%

33%

Home Win Draw Away Win

HJK Helsinki vs VPS prediction: Sportiko gives HJK Helsinki a 38% chance of winning, VPS 33% and the draw 29%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Home to Score 76%
Away to Score 73%
1st Half Home or Draw 73%
Under 3.5 Goals 71%

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Timeline

Alfie Cicale

30' ⇄

▮ 35'

S. Lindholm Yellow Card

Yellow Card

45' ▮

S. Haarala

45+1' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

⚽ 1–1 46'

S. Lindholm

⇄ T. Pukki

60' ⇄

⇄ J. Kallinen

60' ⇄

⇄ 68'

S. Lindholm ⇄ X. Odhiambo

T. Pukki Penalty

75' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 76'

K. Kouassivi-Benissan ⇄ A. Räisänen

P. Mentu ⇄ L. Lappalainen

79' ⇄

T. Cissokho ⇄ M. Bogićević

82' ⇄

⇄ 88'

⇄ J. Muzinga

⇄ 88'

⇄ M. Niemi

Brooklyn Lyons-Foster Yellow Card

89' ▮

Yellow Card

90+2' ▮

FT 2–1

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Confidence Low (38%)

At a glance

Our lean

HJK Helsinki or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.8%

Both teams to score

57%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

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HJK Helsinki

DDWLW

VPS

LLWLW

Match summary

HJK Helsinki faces VPS in a crucial Veikkausliiga clash. HJK has shown strong form this season, boasting a solid home record and high possession stats, averaging over 60% in their last five matches. Conversely, VPS struggles on the road, often conceding goals early which could be pivotal against HJK's aggressive attacking style. Expect HJK to capitalize on their offensive prowess and aim for a decisive victory.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

38%

10%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

33%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

VPS goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	7	6	2	1
1	8	14	8	3	1
2	7	9	6	2	1
3	3	4	3	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ HJK Helsinki goals · most likely 1–1 (13.8%)

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Players in form

HJK Helsinki

M. Borchers 4 gls

T. Pukki 3 gls

VPS

L. Smyth 5 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

38%

Away Win

33%

Draw

29%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

38%

Away Win

33%

Draw

29%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

53% Home (No Draw) 47% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

18% Home Win by 2+ 15% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

38% Home Scores More 33% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.2%	7.1%	5.7%	2.5%	0.8%
1	7.8%	13.8%	8.0%	3.5%	1.2%
2	6.6%	8.6%	5.7%	2.5%	0.8%
3	3.1%	4.1%	2.7%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.1%	1.4%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

54%

1.5

46%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	HJK Helsinki	Draw	VPS
HJK Helsinki	22.6%	4.5%	2.0%
Draw	14.1%	17.8%	12.6%
VPS	2.2%	4.6%	19.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

76%

59%

1.5

41%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: HJK Helsinki vs VPS

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

HJK Helsinki — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Gnistan	D	1 - 1
13 Sep	A KuPS	D	0 - 0
09 Sep	H Inter Turku	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Inter Turku	L	1 - 0
31 Aug	A Ilves	W	1 - 2

VPS — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H KuPS	L	0 - 2
14 Sep	A Inter Turku	L	1 - 0
08 Sep	H AC Oulu	W	1 - 0
31 Aug	H Lahti	L	0 - 1
22 Aug	A Ilves	W	0 - 1

Veikkausliiga Standings

Champion Additional

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	25	13	9	3	41	24	+17	48
2	Inter Turku	25	13	9	3	32	18	+14	48
3	HJK Helsinki	25	12	6	7	39	29	+10	42
4	Gnistan	25	11	8	6	40	32	+8	41
5	VPS	25	10	6	9	30	25	+5	36
6	AC Oulu	25	10	4	11	26	29	-3	34

Relegation Play-Off

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lahti	25	10	6	9	30	24	+6	36
2	Ilves	25	10	4	11	42	38	+4	34
3	Turku PS	25	8	8	9	28	27	+1	32
4	SJK	25	5	9	11	28	35	-7	24
5	Mariehamn	25	4	5	16	20	47	-27	17
6	FF Jaro	25	3	8	14	20	48	-28	17

HJK Helsinki

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Joonas Rantanen

44 Marković

14 Montano

3 Cissokho

2 Lyons-Foster

13 Simojoki

32 Gueye

4 Ring

8 Mentu

7 Cicale

29 Haarala

22 Möller

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
44	Matej Marković	G
13	Kaius Simojoki	D
2	Brooklyn Lyons-Foster	D
3	Till Cissokho	D
14	Leonel Montano	D
8	Pyry Mentu	M
4	Alexander Ring	M
32	Mouhamed Gueye	M
22	Liam Möller	F
29	Santeri Haarala	F
7	Alfie Cicale	F

Substitutes

18	Toivo Mero	M
15	Jere Kallinen	M
20	Teemu Pukki	F
31	Mihailo Bogićević	D
26	Lassi Lappalainen	M
1	Jesse Öst	G
28	Miska Ylitolva	D
17	Martin Kirilov	M
10	Lucas Lingman	M

VPS

Formation: 3-1-4-2 Coach: Jussi Nuorela

41 Jalloh

19 Haukioja

6 Okereke

3 Simpson

13 Ogunniyi

7 Turfkruier

8 Lima

27 Kouassivi-Benissan

2 Mané

15 Smyth

14 Lindholm

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
41	Mamadou Jalloh	G
3	Razak Simpson	D
6	Emmanuel Okereke	D
19	Martti Haukioja	D
13	Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi	M
2	Lassana Mané	M
27	Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan	M
8	Paulo Lima	M
7	Jayden Turfkruier	M
14	Simon Lindholm	F
15	Luka Smyth	F

Substitutes

20	Xavier Odhiambo	F
34	Antti-Ville Räisänen	M
11	Jonathan Muzinga	F
23	Miika Niemi	D
1	Aleksi Piispa	G
33	Akon Kuek	D
5	Vilmer Ronnberg	D
26	Rasmus Forsbacka	M
24	Yassin Daoussi	M