France vs Spain Prediction

World Cup · Semi-finals

Post on X

Spain

Away

AI call Spain or draw

27%

28%

45%

Home Win Draw Away Win

France vs Spain prediction: Sportiko gives France a 27% chance of winning, Spain 45% and the draw 28%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Match Report

Spain booked their place in the World Cup final with a composed 2-0 victory over France, a result that our pre-match AI model had flagged as the most likely outcome at 45%. The Spanish side took control early, earning and converting a penalty through Mikel Oyarzabal in the 22nd minute, a lead they carried into half-time. France's evening was further complicated by Adrien Rabiot's yellow card in the ninth minute, which prompted his withdrawal at the interval.

Spain doubled their advantage on 58 minutes when Pedro Porro added a second goal, effectively ending France's hopes of a comeback. Despite France enjoying seven corner kicks to Spain's one, the expected goals figures told a stark story — Spain generated 1.63 to France's 0.30 — underlining how thoroughly the Spanish side controlled the quality of chances throughout.

France grew increasingly frustrated as the match wore on, with Kylian Mbappé picking up a late yellow card in the 86th minute. Spain's clinical efficiency and disciplined defensive structure proved the difference, sending them through to the final.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Adrien Rabiot Yellow Card

9' ▮

⚽ 0–1 22'

Mikel Oyarzabal Penalty

William Saliba ⇄ Maxence Lacroix

30' ⇄

▮ 31'

Marc Cucurella Yellow Card

HT 0–1

Adrien Rabiot ⇄ Manu Koné

46' ⇄

Bradley Barcola ⇄ Désiré Doué

57' ⇄

⚽ 0–2 58'

Pedro Porro assist: Dani Olmo

Michael Olise ⇄ Rayan Cherki

72' ⇄

Lucas Digne ⇄ Theo Hernández

72' ⇄

⇄ 74'

Mikel Oyarzabal ⇄ Ferran Torres

⇄ 78'

Dani Olmo ⇄ Mikel Merino

⇄ 78'

Fabián Ruiz ⇄ Pedri

⇄ 84'

Pedro Porro ⇄ Marcos Llorente

⇄ 84'

Alex Baena ⇄ Nico Williams

Kylian Mbappé Yellow Card

86' ▮

FT 0–2

France

Match Stats

Spain

49% Ball Possession 51%

0.30 Expected Goals (xG) 1.63

10 Total Shots 10

3 Shots on Goal 2

5 Shots off Goal 5

2 Blocked Shots 3

4 Shots insidebox 5

6 Shots outsidebox 5

7 Corner Kicks 1

4 Offsides 5

11 Fouls 12

2 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

0 Goalkeeper Saves 3

473 Total passes 500

396 Passes accurate 428

84% Passes % 86%

0.07 goals_prevented 0.07

France

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
20 Désiré Doué F	7.0	33'	–	–	1	14 (12%)	2
8 Aurélien Tchouaméni M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	61 (54%)	4
24 Rayan Cherki M	6.9	18'	–	–	–	18 (13%)	–
7 Ousmane Dembélé M	6.6	90'	–	–	2	30 (21%)	–
11 Michael Olise M	6.5	72'	–	–	–	34 (26%)	3
12 Bradley Barcola M	6.5	57'	–	–	1	14 (12%)	–
4 Dayot Upamecano D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	54 (50%)	–
19 Theo Hernández D	6.3	18'	–	–	–	15 (13%)	–
14 Adrien Rabiot M	6.3	45'	–	–	1	21 (14%)	4
26 Maxence Lacroix D	6.3	60'	–	–	–	54 (51%)	–
5 Jules Koundé D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	32 (24%)	1
17 William Saliba D	6.2	30'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	–
10 Kylian Mbappé F	6.2	90'	–	–	2	16 (12%)	–
6 Manu Koné M	6.2	45'	–	–	–	28 (24%)	–
16 Mike Maignan G	5.9	90'	–	–	–	38 (31%)	–
3 Lucas Digne D	5.7	72'	–	–	–	34 (29%)	–

Spain

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
12 Pedro Porro D	8.2	84'	1	–	2	28 (23%)	2
16 Rodri M	7.7	90'	–	–	–	68 (59%)	4
22 Pau Cubarsí D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	32 (29%)	2
14 Aymeric Laporte D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	76 (70%)	–
23 Unai Simón G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	37 (19%)	–
24 Marc Cucurella D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	38 (33%)	4
8 Fabián Ruiz M	7.0	78'	–	–	–	65 (56%)	4
21 Mikel Oyarzabal F	7.0	74'	1	–	2	24 (22%)	–
6 Mikel Merino M	6.9	12'	–	–	–	10 (9%)	1
10 Dani Olmo M	6.9	78'	–	1	1	30 (29%)	1
15 Alex Baena M	6.7	84'	–	–	–	27 (22%)	1
17 Nico Williams F	6.7	13'	–	–	1	4 (4%)	1
19 Lamine Yamal M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	29 (24%)	–
5 Marcos Llorente M	6.6	13'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	1
20 Pedri M	6.3	12'	–	–	–	19 (17%)	1
7 Ferran Torres F	6.3	16'	–	–	1	6 (5%)	–

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Our lean

Spain or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.2%

Both teams to score

57%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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France

LLWWW

Spain

WWWWW

Last 1 meetings France · 0W 0D 1L

Match summary

In this World Cup clash, France and Spain are set to face off in what promises to be a tactical battle. France boasts a strong attacking lineup, highlighted by the likes of Kylian Mbappé and Antoine Griezmann, who have been pivotal in their recent successes. Conversely, Spain's possession-based style, led by key midfielders such as Pedri and Gavi, will seek to control the game's tempo. Both teams have shown defensive solidity, but France's speed on the counter-attack may exploit any gaps in Spain's high press. This match will likely hinge on midfield dominance and the ability to capitalize on set pieces.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

27%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Spain goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	8	4	2	1
1	6	13	9	5	2	1
2	4	7	6	3	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ France goals · most likely 1–1 (13.2%)

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Players in form

France

Kylian Mbappé 10 gls

O. Dembélé 6 gls

B. Barcola 3 gls

Spain

Mikel Oyarzabal 5 gls

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Match Result

Away Win

45%

Draw

28%

Home Win

27%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

45%

Draw

28%

Home Win

27%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

63% Away (No Draw) 37% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

24% Away Win by 2+ 11% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals 27% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

22%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5%	8.2%	7.9%	4.3%	1.7%
1	5.7%	13.2%	9.5%	5.1%	2.1%
2	4.3%	7.0%	5.7%	3.1%	1.2%
3	1.7%	2.8%	2.3%	1.2%	0.5%
4	0.5%	0.8%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	France	Draw	Spain
France	15.6%	4.5%	2.5%
Draw	10.3%	16.8%	16.1%
Spain	1.8%	4.5%	28.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: France vs Spain

0 France Wins

0 Draws

1 Spain Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
09 Jul 2024	Spain	2 - 1	France

France — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Jul	H England	L	4 - 6
14 Jul	H Spain	L	0 - 2
09 Jul	H Morocco	W	2 - 0
04 Jul	A Paraguay	W	0 - 1
30 Jun	H Sweden	W	3 - 0

Spain — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Jul	H Argentina	W	1 - 0
14 Jul	A France	W	0 - 2
10 Jul	H Belgium	W	2 - 1
06 Jul	A Portugal	W	0 - 1
02 Jul	H Austria	W	3 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

France

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Didier Deschamps

16 Maignan

3 Digne

17 Saliba

4 Upamecano

5 Koundé

14 Rabiot

8 Tchouaméni

12 Barcola

11 Olise

7 Dembélé

10 Mbappé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	Mike Maignan	G
5	Jules Koundé	D
4	Dayot Upamecano	D
17	William Saliba	D
3	Lucas Digne	D
8	Aurélien Tchouaméni	M
14	Adrien Rabiot	M
7	Ousmane Dembélé	M
11	Michael Olise	M
12	Bradley Barcola	M
10	Kylian Mbappé	F

Substitutes

26	Maxence Lacroix	D
6	Manu Koné	M
20	Désiré Doué	F
19	Theo Hernández	D
24	Rayan Cherki	M
1	Brice Samba	G
23	Robin Risser	G
15	Ibrahima Konaté	D
21	Lucas Hernández	D
2	Malo Gusto	D
25	Maghnes Akliouche	M
13	N'Golo Kanté	M
18	Warren Zaïre-Emery	M
22	Jean-Philippe Mateta	F
9	Marcus Thuram	F

Spain

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Luis de la Fuente

23 Simón

24 Cucurella

14 Laporte

22 Cubarsí

12 Porro

8 Ruiz

16 Rodri

15 Baena

10 Olmo

19 Yamal

21 Oyarzabal

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Unai Simón	G
12	Pedro Porro	D
22	Pau Cubarsí	D
14	Aymeric Laporte	D
24	Marc Cucurella	D
16	Rodri	M
8	Fabián Ruiz	M
19	Lamine Yamal	M
10	Dani Olmo	M
15	Alex Baena	M
21	Mikel Oyarzabal	F

Substitutes

7	Ferran Torres	F
6	Mikel Merino	M
20	Pedri	M
5	Marcos Llorente	M
17	Nico Williams	F
1	David Raya	G
13	Joan García	G
2	Marc Pubill	D
4	Eric García	D
3	Alejandro Grimaldo	D
18	Martín Zubimendi	M
9	Pablo Gavi	M
26	Borja Iglesias	F
25	Víctor Muñoz	F
11	Yéremy Pino	M