Bate Borisov vs AF Elbasani Prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying Round

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Bate Borisov

Home

0 : 0

HT 0 - 0

1st leg 1-1 · Aggregate 1-1

AF Elbasani

Away

AI call AF Elbasani or draw

28%

30%

42%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Bate Borisov vs AF Elbasani prediction: Sportiko gives Bate Borisov a 28% chance of winning, AF Elbasani 42% and the draw 30%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Away to Score 75%
2nd Half Over 0.5 73%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%

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Match Report

Bate Borisov and AF Elbasani played out a tense, goalless draw across 120 minutes in Minsk, with neither side able to find a breakthrough in normal time or extra time. The match was a cautious, combative affair, with five yellow cards distributed across both teams and a flurry of substitutions as managers sought to change the game in the second half and beyond.

With the tie unable to be separated after extra time, the contest was decided by a penalty shootout. The spot-kick sequence proved dramatic, with two penalties missed along the way before AF Elbasani ultimately prevailed to advance to the next round of the UEFA Europa Conference League qualifying.

The Albanian side's resilience throughout the 120 minutes proved the decisive factor, as they held firm against the Belarusian hosts and converted when it mattered most. Our pre-match AI model had rated an AF Elbasani win as the most likely outcome at 42%, a call that proved correct. Elbasani now progress to the second qualifying round.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 11'

Yellow Card

17' ▮

Yellow Card

42' ▮

HT 0–0

46' ⇄

59' ⇄

Yellow Card

73' ▮

⇄ 76'

▮ 77'

Yellow Card

82' ⇄

⇄ 95'

⇄ 105+3'

106' ⇄

Penalty

120+1' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 120+1'

Penalty

120+2' ⚽ 2–1

⚽ 2–2 120+2'

Penalty

Missed Penalty

120+3' ✗

⚽ 2–3 120+3'

Penalty

120+4' ⚽ 3–3

⚽ 3–4 120+4'

Penalty

120+5' ⚽ 4–4

✗ 120+5'

Missed Penalty

Penalty

120+6' ⚽ 5–4

✗ 120+6'

Missed Penalty

FT 0–0

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Confidence Low (42%)

At a glance

Our lean

AF Elbasani or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.4%

Both teams to score

52%

Over 2.5 goals

45%

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Bate Borisov

LDLLW

AF Elbasani

DWLDD

Last 1 meetings Bate Borisov · 0W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League match, Bate Borisov will face AF Elbasani. Bate Borisov has historically shown strong performances in European competitions, leveraging their experienced squad and tactical discipline. On the other hand, AF Elbasani, while competitive domestically, faces a significant challenge against a seasoned opponent. Key factors will include Bate's ability to control possession and exploit defensive weaknesses, while Elbasani must maximize counter-attacking opportunities. Both teams will need to capitalize on set pieces, as they can be decisive in tightly contested matches.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

AF Elbasani goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	10	8	4	1
1	8	14	9	4	1
2	5	7	5	2	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Bate Borisov goals · most likely 1–1 (14.4%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Draw

30%

Home Win

28%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Draw

30%

Home Win

28%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

60% Away (No Draw) 40% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Away Win by 2+ 12% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

42% Away Scores More 30% Equal Goals 28% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

17%

27%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.0%	9.9%	8.0%	3.7%	1.3%
1	7.5%	14.4%	8.9%	4.1%	1.4%
2	5.0%	7.0%	4.9%	2.3%	0.8%
3	1.9%	2.6%	1.8%	0.8%	0.3%
4	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

58%

1.5

42%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

26%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Bate Borisov	Draw	AF Elbasani
Bate Borisov	16.1%	4.4%	2.1%
Draw	11.3%	19.3%	15.8%
AF Elbasani	1.6%	4.4%	25.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Bate Borisov vs AF Elbasani

0 Bate Borisov Wins

1 Draws

0 AF Elbasani Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
07 Jul 2026	AF Elbasani	1 - 1	Bate Borisov

Bate Borisov — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Dinamo Minsk	L	2 - 0
13 Sep	H Naftan	D	2 - 2
07 Sep	A Dinamo Brest	L	1 - 0
03 Sep	A FC Isloch Minsk R.	L	2 - 0
30 Aug	H FC Minsk	W	2 - 1

AF Elbasani — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Tirana	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Egnatia Rrogozhinë	W	2 - 1
06 Sep	A Dinamo Tirana	L	2 - 1
29 Aug	H Vllaznia Shkodër	D	1 - 1
22 Aug	A Laci	D	1 - 1

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.